Joneseye

Been keeping an eye on that too. It does look to be very marginal from this range, but interestingly the track of the low pressure has been pushed further south by the model output in recent days and this southward movement IMO has prompted the advisories. The track will be important as the northern protion is likely to have the snow for the longest period. So in true winter style it will be more about nowcasting than forecasting IMO. Also worth noting that the forecasted precipitation is likely to be heavy. The heavier precipitation can be conducive to turn back to snow due to the effects of evaporative cooling. One to watch, but not to get too excited about for now. We do not have entrenched cold air over the UK like we did in December.

It has just passed over Newbs and has started to pick up intensity. Not sure the rumbles I heard were from my belly or not

Paul - I was just browsing through the worldwide weather 7 day forecasts and I think the 'feels like' part is in need of some attention as the temps are showing the same as the actual temps. Thanks Ian

Hi Paul, I too am loving the new worldwide weather feature on the website. I have encountered a few issues, particularly when putting in locations in the USA. I have tried unsuccessfully to put in the forecast for Las Vegas and Los Angeles. I get a lot of locations in South America, but nothing for the states. Ian

hi there - I have been wondering the same thing myself since Monday this week. The 06Z has shifted the projection slightly in terms of the sweet spot for rainfall - I reckon somewhere like East Meon to Petersfield area is the best spot: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;type=free;ct=9842~East%20Meon;sess=#forecasthttp://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;type=free;ct=9842~East%20Meon;sess=#forecast

Our turn tomorrow, Andy - was practically bone dry here as well all weekend in RG14

Fingers crossed about tomorrow as it looks like the area's that missed all the fun over the weekend are much more in the firing line. I notice the 7 day forecast from GFS is predicting approaching 30mm of rain for my location tomorrow.. good for the garden

is it time to get the 7 day forecast updated with the heat index rather than the wind chill?

Thanks for the link at the start... off to Thailand in early May where the UV index will be up in the 14-15 region - uh oh!

Looking through those articles and looking at the forecast I would agree that somebody is after some publicity (was surprised to find it wasn't Piers Corbyn!). After 2 seasonal forecasts that were opposite to what Met Office predicted (not hard to do) and the likes of the BBC are running the story. I do hope the British public has learnt to pour a heap of salt all over that forecast.

I was interested to see what kind of intensity of rainfall fell on Madeira to cause such devastation... and came across this: http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/disasters/21-02-2010/112311-madeira_calamity-0 111mm in 6 hours is pretty intense and has all the hallmarks of Boscastle and the floods of July 2007. Throw the mountainous geography into the equation and it is easy to see why such devastation was caused.

Paul - thanks to you and the team for making an already great product even better! There are not many subscription based services on the Internet that I would part money for, but this is well worth the subscription fee. This really helps to illustrate nowcasting to my team at work and brings things to life. Roll on the spring summer storms

Here is a local one: Looking at a loop of the main radar the stuff over towards the Cherbourg peninsula is arcing slowly in NE'ly direction. I would suggest that 'if' it reaches our area we will have too high temps and dew points for it to give anything other than rain.

Nice one Stormboy I know where you are and that explains why you keep getting more than me :lol: The elevation certainly helps plus you are closer to the downs, which means you get more precipitation than me! As for the re-load the % chances have certainly gone up since yesterday. The form horse this winter has been the cold up until now.. and to think that most winters we drool over charts like the ones we are seeing only for the actual outcome is mild where Greece gets all the snow... hmmm

Hi Kiwi, that ties in quite nicely with the 24hour accumulations, which has been zoomed in on my postcode: As you can see my home postcode is right on the edge of the green - whereas you are slap bang in the middle of the green. Quite interesting that our location has been right on the edge of all the snow dumpings on each occasion EDIT - when I say snow dumpings I mean the one before xmas, the one last week and the one overnight last night. This is mainly due to outr location being in the valley.

Hi Stormboy, as a fellow Newbrarian I would like to know whereabouts you live, do you live in Newbury itself or on the hillier outskirts? I ask as I measured the snow this morning and it came to 6cm, which is quite a disparity to the nearly 10cm you have measured overnight. I live on Fir Tree Lane just off the A4 so a fairly flat location! Cheers Ian

I think that is a fairly accurate summation of how things will pan out. Elevation will help in this scenario, although that only covers a small percentage of our area.

Another example of nowcasting coming up methinks! Somewhere on the boundary could get a lot of snow tomorrow into Weds, only thing is knowing exactly where! The cold pool aloft has diminished slightly, which means that elevation will be key to getting prolonged snowfall. A close watch is needed, especially for those who have to commute!

I am no expert and certainly don't know the answer to this question, but I know Nick F raised a similar point on the previous thread. This almost seems like too complicated a scenario to factor into any model guidance, however it has appeared on a couple of model runs now I believe.

Had a flurry here in Newbs earlier.. As for the weekend onwards it looks like being a showery regime setting in, which means that some places may see light flurries whereas some may get the odd moderate burst. A case of nowcasting will be the order of the day. As for people using the BBC internet forecast then don't! Use the local foreacast from Net-Weather that updates 4 times a day. OK it takes it's data feed from the GFS, but it is a much better general guide. By the way it got down to -11.2C in Thatcham yesterday morning just after 0700: http://www.thatcham-weather.info/ Regards Ian

The event we have just had over the last 24 hours is proof how these precip charts are useless at this sort of range. I had been following the front coming south from 5 days out and it was not until 36 hours notice that the GFS picked up on the threat of something more than the light precip that it was showing. The good thing is that we are edging ever closer to finding out.

In case anyone was wondering where the 'sweetspot' was overnight - check this out... Somewhere to the West of Clanfield must have iro 50cm, surely?

A lovely picture out there this morning snow covering everything including the neighbours washing line... just about to ride my bike to work - should be fun!!

Not been out to measure yet, but we have had a dumping overnight in Newbs and we are on the edge of the sweet spot.. Somewhere to the north of Portsmouth around the Butser Hill area must have had over a foot of snow or more looking at the 24 hour accumulations - amazing!!

All of the models I have seen that give details show a prolonged period of moderate to heavy precipitation from 1800 this evening right through til about the same time tomorrow evening. Based on the rough principle of 1mm of rain = 1cm snow this could indeed mean a lot of snow. I would say that I find it hard to believe as I have never seen that amount of snow in the 7 years I have lived in this house. For me I have totted up about 35mm in Newbury based on the automated NetWeather forecast, which would mean 35cm!! being realistic I would be happy to see a 1/3 of that amount!!