Joneseye

Yo peeps! Looking at the latest station data on the NetWeather Radar the temps are quite widely in the 1-3 range to the east of the decaying band of 'precip'. Throw dew points of below freezing into the mixer and 850's of -5 to -6 and some of the ingredients are there... all we need now is the precip to pep up a bit as Kold Weather has pointed out... here's dreaming...

I think us lot near the south coast and down to the South West need to be very patient. Some of the models have hinted at any bands of precip, troughs etc. to stall once they get down as far as the south coast. There have been suggestions of southerly tracking lows (Channel Lows) as well on the odd occasion in recent days. Our best bet is for the cold to become entrenched across the UK and for a low pressure to come along the south coast and drag the colder air in from the continent a la the scenario you paint. One can only hope at this stage!

is the 'feels like' functionality working in the 7 and 16 day weather forecast section? I would have thought with the wind chill factor that it would be much colder. Thanks Ian

Cold spell still looking very much game on for next week, just the finer details that keep changing. Anyone know of anywhere that sells decent sledges? been meaning to purchase one for a while now!

Hi Paul, would it be too much effort for the mods (or somebody else) to pull out the appropriate posts that best sum up the model discussion? I am thinking along the lines of being able to highlight the ones that add the most value and paste them all into another thread that summarises the thoughts of the day/run? I noticed a while ago there was a sort of enhancement option on the forum, not sure what happened to it.. might be just my browser! The other thought I had was to give the posters and readers the option to enrich or enhance posts that they find most helpful and the top posts then get copied into another thread similar to my first idea. Hope this helps. Regards Ian

I reckon -9.1C at either Braemar or Dyce - where I am I reckon we might sneak a 0.5C if we are lucky.

I was woken about half an hour earlier by heavy rain and strong winds.. Why oh why is there this insistence on the phrase mini tornado. sheesh!

morning all.. looking forward to the front passing over Newbury in the next couple of hours! It really is quite a narrow band, however some heavy rain has formed in front and behind where we are.

Lovely photo's - just the ticket on a miserable day stuck in the office!

Looks fun over the eastern med! a few water-spouts maybe?

I put mine on for 1 hour the other morning as it was 4C outside and it was fairly chilly inside. I got a message from the wife when she got into work saying that she jumped out of bed because she thought the house was burning down!

I remember it well as my Godson was Christened that day and it was ridiculously hot in the church. I have a lovely christening card with barely legible writing due to the amount I was sweating in my suit

I nearly choked on my beer when I first saw this thread. I am off to Hawaii for my honeymoon late September and couldn't face another holiday ruined by a hurricane.. I was due to fly out to Mexico 2 days after hurricane Wilma nearly destroyed Cancun and missed out on my dream holiday.. That said Felicia really was a beautiful looking storm at her peak and I am sure the surfers of Hawaii are licking their lips in anticipation of her arrivale

Hi Harry, the showers passing over here in the last hour have been pretty beefy and are developing all the time... you never know you may get lucky as they look to be forming a decent line!

My thoughts entirely! Who would actually want to see 70mm fall in their back yard? Certainly not me after July 2007 where 111mm fell in 1 day after a model forecast of 100mm.

According to the 24 hour accumulation figures on the netweather extra radar some parts of cornwall and south wales that are exposed to the south west wind have already had 56+ mm of rain with more to come (see dark brown and red colours):

Just on the northern edge here so missed the best of the rain... looks to be more on the way looking at the latest radar as we are at the eastern edge of a convergence zone... Greenham Common is certainly a good place to watch them roll in from the West

Wow! 3 actual rumbles of thunder from the cell approaching Newbury not seen the lightning yet and the rain has just started...

Thanks to Severe Blizzard for some hard stats and some analysis to back up the point. I think peeps need to remember what a small sample size our memories give us with which to compare. To answer the topic I don't think anything particular has happened to our storms. For my particular location I have witnessed 1 overhead thunderstorm this year, which is quite poor (there was 1 last Friday, but typically I was out of the country at the time doh!). What I have noticed is that my area has been a good breeding ground this year due to the prevailing wind direction (I say this as an avid radar watcher on potential storm days).. hardly surprising when you live only 40 miles from the coast and the wind is coming from that direction. The other observation I have; one that I am sure it has been mentioned on a number of occasions on the convective discussion threads, is that the imported storms have had a tendency to form across the centre of France and then track up the French coastline. We have been lacking the decent 'Spanish Plume' type events where slack low pressure forms in northern Spain and tracks up the Bay of Biscay. These are the events where my area and many other areas do well as they have the strength to cross the English Channel... here is praying for one of those for the storm starved among us!

Nopesy - will be fun watching it though!

Glad someone is being positive, this thread is getting worse than the will it snow threads do in winter... The one difference from the previous days this week is that pressure is dropping and there is a trigger there for storms. I for one am more optimistic today and tomorrow of seeing something... still all about timing though

What an unpleasant night that was! Would have liked to have known what the minimum temp was here... however having a flat roof with black felt really isn't conducive to a good night sleep.. at 0900 some impressive temps again, particularly in parts of Scotland where a few places are already up to 23C. Clear skies here and I would imagine if they stay that way we will see some high temps in the Thames Valley.

Hi Bofh, I am in the same boat as you albeit slightly further west. In my experience when we get showery activity moving up from the IOW heading north it tends to miss here just to the west due to the downs and Salisbury Plain. Ian

My understanding is that those %'s come from the automated forecast from GFS. Unfortunately GFS tends to over-egg the dew points at this time of year (as has been discussed elsewhere), which in turn gives the over-inflated storm chances. I would only trust those figures if the air pressure is much lower than it is currently (1018) and if there is some sort of trigger, which there isn't from what I can see.

looks to be a line of cells firing to the south of the main band now... I did a quick search on MK1, here it is: