Joneseye
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Everything posted by Joneseye
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Those bright echoes over Plymouth on the 2340 radar are pretty intense. If they maintain that intensity and it falls as snow then that a serious snowstorm right there!
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Light snow here in Newbury as already mentioned. Low temps and dew points indicate that it will all be snow today and plenty more light snow to come I estimate 1-3cm the farther east you are the more is expected. I popped into the London and South East thread earlier and places in east Kent had already had about 3cm -
Light snow when I left my house in Newbury and certainly picked up intensity now. About 1cm of lying snow @ 0830
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Good luck to everyone. I am going to try and get some sleep now and be up early for the main event
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Any chance you can dig out one of your famous Snow Ramps?
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come on spill the beans, how much did the trusty ruler deliver you on your photo?
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Looks about 8-10cm
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Fancy another 'gentlemens' bet?
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Those Greens are hardly mild! with a southeasterly flow we'll be dragging in colder dew points which renders the 528DAM line useless as a measure in this case
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The air might not be cold or dry enough for powder snow. I am not sure what the threshold is for powder snow, but I'd imagine you need really cold uppers and surface temps like they get in North America
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For those less experienced members it's worth noting that the 18z is typically the least progressive of the GFS runs ie. farthest west and the 06Z the most progressive ie. farthest east. Don't be surprised to see a movement back east again by the morning and if you log on after 0900 then even farther east. It's a shame we can't use the other models like the UKMO or ECM to give our will it snow or 7 day forecast on here. I am mindful they would only update twice daily.
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The site is very busy tonight & I think they turn a lot of the features off at peak times to keep it running
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How's our 'gentlemens' bet on the low temps looking? The temp seems to have stalled up at Henwick..
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Also note that the Netweather forecast also updates 4 times daily following the latest GFS run. I wouldn't take any automated forecast as gospel and switch to radar, satellite and lamp post watching in the run up to the event.... As well as hearing the reports from the good people of this regional forum
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how's yer temp getting on? I see thatcham weather is down to -1.3...
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I popped in to do exactly the same! Is this a case of 'once bitten twice shy'? I reckon you'll be in the 'sweet spot' for an all snow event especially if there is a pivot
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Steve's weather station at Thatcham peaked at 0.2C an hour ago and has dipped below freezing again. Where I am by the racecourse I think it should be classified as an ice day, not a lot of fun racing horses round our track that's for sure. I think we'll need the stubborn low cloud and mist to clear to reach those temps tonight, but I'll gladly be wrong. I reckon -5.2C as the low at about 0230.
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Still below freezing here in Newbury - currently -0.4C having peaked at -0.3C at 10:46. GTLTW what are your current readings? Some bone chilling temps forecast Fri, Sat, Sun nights where the skies clear and there is decent snow cover. I'd expect to see some double digit minima, somewhere like Yeovilton, Boscombe or Benson could get as low as -15C with towns down to -10C. If you have any susceptible pipes I'd get prepping them now where possible.
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Steady on Morning weather nuts! Just one thing to note in and amongst all the excitement of a potentially memorable dumping is to urge caution for those that have to travel. The general population tend to be quite oblivious to the potential dangers of getting stuck in snow. I've been encouraging my friends through social media outlets to ensure they have blankets and a flask with water at minimum in their cars if they have to travel. It'd be a good plan to take a shovel, some rope and a torch and have your mobile phone charged as well. I'd be encouraging your friends and family to do the same particularly as the winds look to pick up with the risk of drifting on the higher routes.
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Approx. 1cm of snow in Newbury making everything look nice and pretty, but not enough to cause any issues on the roads, which is good. An interesting few days ahead, hopefully this is the hors d'oeuvres to something a bit tastier late in the week. As a resident of CSE I always keep my feet firmly on the ground as we normally need the holy grail to end up in the sweet spot for a snow dumping.
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It certainly looks like an interesting situation developing for the weekend. As ever these situations are on a knife-edge even with all the resources available for forecasters. So many factors to consider before nailing a snow forecast for a particular location even at this range. The Beeb and Met get a lot of unwarranted stick in these situations as suddenly a whole nation of amateurs look at some charts on the Internet and think they know better! Longer term isn't really worth getting too concerned about at the moment so if you're reading the model thread and see some downbeat comments on there don't worry too much. I will be logging back in at 1500 to see the start of the 12Z with some interest on what scenario we will see.
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Up to 31.4mm in Newbury from this current spell, which is quite a lot given that we are shielded by hills to the south and the north. That takes us up to 900mm for the year
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Heavy Rain, Flooding, High Winds - 19th December -->
Joneseye replied to Paul's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I can see the next batch of rain coming into the South West approaches. Looks like being a wet period ahead, I hope it doesn't spoil too many peoples Christmas. -
Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion
Joneseye replied to gottolovethisweather's topic in Regional
A cold day here in Newbury. Local station recorded the max temp of 0.7C at 0234 this morning and currently -2.6C -
Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion
Joneseye replied to gottolovethisweather's topic in Regional
Only down to -0.4C in Newbury and we have a layer of cloud making it very gloomy.