Joneseye

Evening all. Just been on the model thread and its like a morgue. Was going to post there, but thought I'd share my thoughts in here instead. I've been a member of Netweather since the early days after the BBC forum closed. Seldom post on here, but regularly check the model thread and regional threads as well as checking the charts and especially the radar. Love a storm and like most people on here I love snow. I also love statistics so weather appeals to me in so many ways. With experience comes reasoned judgement. In my social groups I often nowcast; people at work often ask me about what the weather is going to do and I try my best to offer a reasoned opinion without getting too techie; I used to nowcast regularly on Facebook, but keep that to a minimum these days. The last week or so the media has been in a frenzy. There have been some eye candy charts from the models. A few people tagged me in posts on Facebook asking for thoughts on whether it would snow yesterday (FWIW i predicted back edge snow and was pleasantly surprised it actually did. I'm glass half full these days). I have a Whatsapp Group called. 'Will I need my sledge?' My Whatsapp Group are all a little disappointed in how things have panned out. One of them has a snow scooter! Ive told them all to stand down for now. Take solice in the fact that we dont have endless Atlantic mush. We have 44 days of winter left and dont listen to the media. Its really hard not to get really excited when we see decent charts and this place gets whipped up into a frenzy. My advice is believe it when you see it, stay calm and when it does arrive enjoy every minute. My 4 year old saw falling snow for the first time properly yesterday. The excitement she showed will stay with my forever. Hopefully we'll get to build a snowman in the next 6-8 weeks, keep the faith.

Ideally you need that wind to swing round to the north. Do you know what your current temperature and dew points are like?

Oh hello wet snow in Newbury

Yep and the precip is still moderate with rapidly dropping temperatures

This is proper nerve jangling. Such a shame this wasn't a channel low passing through entrenched cold air as a few places would have had a decent dumping. Still hopeful of some back edge snow here in Newbs... although are we the wrong side of the M4?? I'm currently stalking the other regional threads to see what's occuring..

tasty wasn't it?! I got stuck in Majestic wine waiting it out, bad times!

Just had a brief burst of torrential rain here in Newbs. I wasn't expecting any rain at all today to be honest. Nice little surprise.

That's good apart from it puts the edge of the risk zone where I live!

Exciting times and some nail-biting model watching ahead. As always don't get too downbeat at the ever changing model runs. Cast your mind back to last week and remember how the timing was wrong even for some of the higher resolution models even at T-0. I'm looking at the broad pattern and then will be on radar and satellite watch. I wonder if we're at the start of a trend of Thundery Fridays? I know it's only 2...

Morning peeps. Is the feels like in the 10 day forecast still set on winter mode? I ask the question as the minimum temp is often below freezing and the max doesn't ever seem to go above the ambient temperature. Thanks Ian

Certainly a wet 12 months for CSE even with a couple of very dry months. Since 13th December 2013 our local station has seen approaching 1100mm.

We're on the south east side of the storm and the winds are really gusting!

Its heading south!! arghhh!

That last one split due to the higher ground to the north and south - surely the next one? incoming...

A cheeky radar grab shows the 6 hour accumulation. No surprise to see local flooding in Swindon Sorry that looks rubbish!

Not an expert, but it looks like 'scud'. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scud_(cloud) Google Images: http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?q=scud+cloud&start=114&sa=X&biw=1280&bih=596&tbm=isch&tbnid=-gi1s6FKvONTEM:&imgrefurl=http://photo.accuweather.com/photogallery/details/photo/126816/Central%2BPA%2BStorm%2BWall%2BCloud%2B%2BScud%2B426&docid=CGxmvP2XHr6M-M&imgurl=http://photo.accuweather.com/photogallery/2011/4/500/541acdc23.jpg&w=500&h=375&ei=8Gj2UerLDMHRhAfziIHoBQ&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=250&page=6&tbnh=139&tbnw=181&ndsp=24&ved=1t:429,r:18,s:100,i:58&tx=86&ty=61 Hi Polar Bear, We need a slight couple of degrees more Westerly in the flow and we'd be in business - in these circumstances a WSW flow does wonders for our region.

Incoming shower approaching Newbury

Just about perfect conditions for playing golf. I played yesterday evening and it was thoroughly pleasant. Just goes to show how nice the conditions can be in summer with a ENE breeze

Ding ding round 2 incoming.....

Looking at the radar we're tantalisingly close to the action.

Certainly is very cold out there with low dew points -8.6C and a raw easterly wind. Reminds me of growing up in the 80s in East Anglia.

Light snow here in Newbury. I'd imagine that its starting to looks quite wintry over the higher ground to the south of me looking at the radar.

Sleet in Newbury contrary to the almost blizzard like conditions you'd expect to see if you believed Facebook. Another grim weekend if you have kids and enjoy walking. I guess the supermarket wil be busy and the bowling alleys and soft play areas.

I've just had 2 texts to say that it is now snowing in Donut town

Its close by... although I have rung a few people in Basingstoke and they haven't got anything despite the radar showing they have.