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pinball wizard

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Posts posted by pinball wizard

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    I think that's fair comment.

    I was hoping they might ref the chance of colder conditions by the 22nd but perhaps the second update will be more revealing ..

    The Met would know that with low probabilities there is NO point in feeding a pre-christmas WALL OF SNOW media frenzy. And rightly so.

    Their job is to provide reasoned forecasts not speculate as to longer term, we can do the latter here for them 😂

    • Like 7
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    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

    I love the weather, have been a member on this forum since the demise of the BBC weather forum (with its infamous SCOD poster and 11pm closing time) so for more years than I care to remember. But I still have a lot to learn - I *think* what Matt is saying here is that the trend is towards a blocked signal with a colder theme for end of month? 
     

    Rather than making an idiot of myself in the mod thread from where this was quoted, I’m hoping one of my more learned SE members can help please? 

    Hi Lottie

    My reading of Matt H's post is that there had previously been a strong signal for low pressure to be the dominant force behind our weather, however, he is now observing that signal to be much weaker and for there to be no particular pattern to be dominant. 

    That could be the start of a trend away from a +nao pattern towards more of a -nao pattern, and usually the , -nao is one associated with a blocked Atlantic and cold for us. 

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    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Certainly a cold day. The Netweather Extra temperature feed from Met Office automated weather stations showing most of the Region remaining sub-zero at around 13.00. (The feed lags the radar time stamp by an hour or so). I've just listened to John Hammond on the TV and he's talking about it turning mild, wet and windy by the weekend following, i.e. by 7 days time.

    RadarTemp02Dec2313_45.thumb.jpg.fac114bdf30c5d7f4dc6ba4df9af3ec3.jpg

    Certainly is very cold and it's not often to find an iceday on the second day of winter. Hopefully bodes well for winter as a whole 

    • Like 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

    -1c  at home when I took that photo prior to my commute [4:30am]  , got to Milton Keynes and +2c

    Yeah I think where cloud cover existed temperatures may have been just above freezing. 

    When I got in the car at 6 this morning it was covered in a glaze of ice, one of those occasions where you hear that crunching and cracking of ice as the doors reluctantly open. Was very glad of the heated windscreen this morning, nice watching the ice melt rather than being out there with the scraper 😂

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, TillyS said:

    Just in case you need a pick up from the despondency, here’s Darren Bett with the Europe-wide temperature anomaly chart:

    Screenshot2023-11-28at19_43_30.thumb.png.c4c8537306a0d963bba46564e6f59964.png

     

    Yes it may well turn milder for a time next week but this is a properly cold opening to winter.

    Sight of that chart has made his hair fall out!

    Pretty striking that so much of northern europe is that cold though with a bit of anomalous warmth in southern europe. If only that thermal gradient could spawn a euro low pressure pattern it'd be of good help to us.

    • Like 2

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by pinball wizard

    Ok so I've started to look for any signs of streamer potential for Thursday using the UKV model run today at 3am, this run goes a bit longer than the 50hrs of other UKV runs.

    Of course this is all academic but that run is suggesting max temps at 3pm Thursday of around 4/5c on suffolk, essex coast, going down to 2/3c a little further inland. 

    What is getting my attention is a look at the predicted wind directions. Increasingly between 3pm and 6pm there are signs of wind convergence, with northerly winds blowing down across inland east anglia meeting easterly winds coming in from the sea. Where these winds converge you would expect sufficient lift of moisture to see ppn development. 

    At the same time, aided by onset of nightfall we see temperatures falling. This means there MAY be a window of opportunity for streamers to set up through late afternoon and into evening.

    Of course no certainty in this and IF it did occur then it would likely only bring ppn across a narrow strip likely along coastal areas from thames estuary up to essex/suffolk border.

    Something to keep an eye on over next 48hrs but low chance and even then it could be a sleety mess. Fingers crossed though 🤞

    nmmukwind.png

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, BLS said:

    Kent streamer Thursday night/Friday morning you heard it here first 😉

    It is a possibility, however odds have reduced overnight. There is still a lot of volatility in model outputs even in close range when looking for the diner details which we need ironed out before a call on precipitation. I'd have thought by tomorrow evening it will be clear enough, personally I'm not confident of seeing anything from this spell other than some frost and the sun, which given the gruesome weather of the last two months is a bonus of sorts in itself. Winter is a long 3 months and hopefully this is the appetiser to a winter very different from last.

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