Anthony Burden

Very hard to believe in charts after 120 hrs at present,obviously an uncertain time for forecasting ahead. Lets hope for some improvements in the range up to ten days,although must be very difficult due to proximity of U.K.

Met office also say more settled conditions over U.K.

Very disappointed with ecm also met office pressure rise over and to the northeast of uk all gone,all change from 168hrs onwards.gfs definitely the winner.Met office will need to change their 6 to 30 day forecast if gfs is correct.

Extreme polar vortex strengthening in stratosphere,both gfs and ecm agree. I think major pattern change about to take place,possibly what’s causing big differences between the big boys gfs /ecm exciting stuff ahead,let’s hope.

Although big difference from gfs and ecm,the most important pattern change that both show,is low pressure to the south of U.K. This replacing high pressure that has dominated, the south of the U.K. for a very long time . Either from the southwest,south,or southeast In my opinion the biggest influence in regards to colder weather.That being the case you can take your choice from gfs low pressure all the way,or ecm and the met office,high pressure all the way.

Big differences between gfs and ecm this morning,to be honest the charts have struggled to get any form of accuracy after 144hrs /168hrs. Let’s hope the met office is correct with a cold beginning to December,and high pressure to be a big influence in the first half especially to central and south eastern U.K. That to me points to a east to south east wind direction, ie high pressure to the east / northeast.

The ECM from 192 hrs begin to start the building blocks that the met office has been saying for some time.

Met office sticking to its guns,in regards to high pressure being the dominant feature at end of month over most of U.K. with the northwest being perhaps the exception. exact positioning still up for grabs,possibly over U.K. or to the east. Fog and frost becoming more likely at end of the month.

gfs keen on the high pressure to our east feeding in east to southeast winds from 192 hrs.Boasting a bit I did mention this scenario yesterday in my blog,but still long way to go will believe more when gfs and ecm show this positioning of the high at 72hrs.

gfs and ecm singing from the same hymn sheet,both now going for high pressure all the way from 168hrs.For cold lovers all about positioning,it may begin in wrong position but may well move to better orientation to bring colder conditions.My take is a possible southeast to east wind from a high positioned some where in Europe.The proof will be in the pudding.

What a big difference between models gfs low pressure all the way,ecm high pressure oriented. We will get a better idea tomorrow,my feeling would be on ecm because of the met office thinking regarding high pressure,not to say that ecm 240 hrs will turn out exactly as shown,but all the same I no what outcome I prefer.

As stated earlier after unsettled spell met office was hinting high pressure to take over. And possibly turning cold with frost,all about positioning of high,let’s hope the ECM 240 hrs is bang on and winter begins in earnest.

ECM 240 hrs has tracking low centre southwest of U.K. interesting track if it remains. Keeping the cooler/ colder theme going for most of U.K. and unsettled. All waiting to see where the high pressure will form as the met office suggest after this unsettled spell.Very interesting and hopeful for cold weather fans.

Lots going on with the charts as they struggle with a big pattern change. Expect chopping and changing from 168 hrs onwards,but it looks like low pressure to start diving south bringing colder weather with snow for some. Remember the key for cold lovers is high pressure northwest north or northeast of U.K. along with low pressure to the south of U.K.

ECM 240 hrs showing ideal scenario for cold weather fans,high pressure showing to the northwest low pressure over Scandinavia.when and if this shows up on the 144 hrs or 120hrs then bingo winter will have definitely started.

The ten day chart from gfs and ecm so important for cold fans,gfs not good ecm good. As I have mentioned before we need that high pressure to drift north,and a bonus would be low pressure over Scandinavia to drift south to bring what most I believe want SNOW.

As we all no high pressure to the north,low pressure to the south jackpot. unfortunately it seems the reverse at present.but this fairly dry November is due to high pressure close to the U.K. in wrong positioning bringing mild to very mild conditions along with many parts of Europe. This of course can change quite quickly,the met office believes this to happen but maybe not in a quick mode,but still this recurring high pressure to dominate our weather over a considerable time and perhaps a more Northerly pressure rise.

A great deal of uncertainty around where the high pressure will settle,in around 8 to 10 days. gfs and ecm chopping and changing like a yo yo.Let’s hope it heads north from the southwest and brings a bit of winter with it instead of spring.

GFS starting in 9 to 10 day to show a more favourable high pressure near or over the uk to bring temperatures more akin to mid /late November.

Met office 144 shows the high pressure to our north east very close to having some influence on are weather,just right position needed not impossible to draw colder Temperatures to our shores.

Met office blowing cold and hot gfs the same charts struggling at the moment with what happens in the next 10 days,best stay only with fax 120 hrs.

GFS going for low pressure to take over from the SW around Friday or Saturday and continue. will ECM change from continued high pressure to GFS changeable Atlantic low pressure systems. still some uncertainty around,follow fax charts.

ECM looks high pressure all the way out to ten days,still plenty of changes regarding exact position of high pressure.Best only to look at fax charts to get the accurate position as temperatures will be up for grabs after 6 days as will position of the high pressure centre.

Some chopping and changing in charts around 8 to 10 days,but ECM going for high pressure all the way.As I mentioned earlier all about where the high pressure tends to sit and drifts to in regards to cool / cold weather for U.K.

GFS at 9 to 10 days looking very low pressure orientation from west north west. Total difference to ECM with high pressure to our north and cool to cold outcome over most of U.K. To my unprofessional eye high pressure to dominate the UK through most of November in regards to temperatures it’s al about position of high pressure.