SqueakheartLW

A CFS 9 month run to BANK for winter - 6z dated 3rd November 2022 The period from around 6th January 2023 to 19th February 2023 is dominated by colder conditions, several beasterlies and very high chances of snow for all of the UK on many occasions 6th January 2023 This is the last of the relatively mild days before the cold starts to lock in 10th January 2023 Winds from the east set in and progressively colder air begins to push into northern areas in particular 15th January 2023 A bit of a messy chart but all within the first push of colder air. Snow has already become a threat but the coldest beast is yet to show itself at this stage 20th January 2023 See all those very cold uppers to our east. These are about to be unleashed upon the UK. 22nd January 2023 BEAST FROM THE EAST UNLEASHED. Here it comes. The coldest part of this particular run. Although the main beast is short the cold air sticks around after this with troughs moving around in the flow with snow no doubt getting dumped on the UK 3rd February 2023 Eventually we lose the troughs and the snow risk as the theme switches to cold and dry with a risk of severe overnight frosts at this stage 5th February 2023 Another go at getting a beasterly going but no where near as severe as the first one and far less snow this time around but with a lot of colder air already over the continent as well as the UK then it stays very cold. 13th February 2023 After a few days of generally dry and cold we see a trough push north taking an area of snow with it. This looked to be an attempt to end the cold but with colder air generally all over the UK it remains cold even behind this feature. More severe cold uppers are gathering to the east again but will they make it this time? 15th February 2023 Those cold uppers do try and push into the UK again with another blast from the east but only really hit England and parts of Wales too. There is a further risk of snow from showers in the east but high pressure soon collapses down from the north, killing off the showers. 20th February 2023 After a few more days of dry and very cold the Atlantic finally stirs and pushes all of the cold air away. After transitional snow it turns a lot milder after this with SW winds, winter over on this run as we head into a wet and at times stormy and mild end to February 2023 and into March 2023 as well.

Just for a bit of fun I have for the last 2 weeks or so have been monitoring and taking down all of the data from the 3 main models, GFS, ECM and GEM and have been putting all of this into a spreadsheet. Using a nice set of formulas where I can to speed things up as much as I can I have been able to with the data sheets from meteociel for the GFS 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z as well as the ECM 00z and 12z getting model run means for November so far and plan to do this for the whole of the November 2022 to March 2023 period. For fun I have also looked at the GFS extended as well as the GEM 00z and 12z for their daily highest mins and max values and the lowest mins and max values too and these are entered into the spreadsheet too. Unlike with the mean values that are always the most recent data these mins and maxes are only updated if the lowest mins and maxes are beaten by an even lower value or the highest mins and maxes are beaten by a higher value, therefore producing a theoretical all model runs coldest and warmest November to eventually March period. The Data so far The data I have so far is shown below and will be subject to chance in all categories many more times. The green column on the far left is the daily mins, maxes and means of 1991-2020 on the relevant days to the left of this column. The other green column is the model run latest means of the most recent 4 GFS runs and 2 ECM runs with the anomalies column just to the left of this one. Model mean vs 1991-2020 mean The bad news for those hoping for a cold start to November is clearly visible under the "Model Mean vs 1991_2020" column with all positive values and above average means which for the first 14 days of November are averaging out at +1.43C above the 1991-2020 mean for 1st to 14th November. The fun part Here comes the fun part and this is related to the blue and red columns in my spreadsheet. These are showing the lowest min and max across GFS, GEM and ECM in the blue columns and the highest min and max in the red columns. As stated before these values only alter if a colder value appears for the blue columns or a warmer value for the red columns. These produce a model coldest and model warmest and a mean value is calculated for these lowest and highest values too. The Warm November Here's the coldies nightmare and the mildies delight. Using the highest achieved mins and maxes from GFS, ECM and GEM you can clearly see some insane mins and maxes as well as the obscene means they produce and as the GFS extended run now covers the whole of November I have values covering the entire month now. The OBSCENE provisional model highest November running mean so far is an INSANE ..... 15.58C which is ...... +8.17C ABOVE THE 1991-2020 MEAN Totally bonkers. The Cold November Now for the coldies delight and the mildies horror show based on the data in the blue column using the same method as above but for lowest mins and maxes instead we see equally ridiculous daily means for November but ones I'd love to see one time just for fun. The DELIGHTFUL provisional model lowest November running mean for far is a NICE ..... 0.72C which is ...... -6.69 BELOW THE 1991-2020 MEAN Equally bonkers as the warm option but one I'd like to see. The Experimental Snow column The keen eyed amongst you may have noticed the "GFS Max Snow (cm)" column between the 1991-2020 means and the cold values column. This is based on the GFS 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z and Extended runs only as they are the only one of the 3 big models that show snow depth values. I have simply looked through each run and taken the biggest snow depth for each day and these values only alter if a run produces an even bigger daily total in cm. So far using these biggest values November 2022 is predicted to potentially have ...... 115 cm of snow yes you saw it 115 cm of snow 115 cm of snow in my weather model fantasy November 2022 with all that snow and the temperatures in the blue cold columns coming off as reality. I'm hoping that these values end up producing a sub zero November in the end as 0.72C isn't that far away.

Maybe we should take note of this chart today and how 3 of the 4 CFS runs are going for a reversal of the 10hpa zonal winds. 2 of these in December and the other one in January.

GFS 12z P16 is the run we want as we head into November Just gets progressively colder as we head into next month and eventually has a taste of winter late in the run Even gets a little bit of snow in too.

I think this needs correcting. 2005/06 was weak EP La Nina As already stated we did have EQBO

Remember November and early December 2009 were mild and wet. Then we all know what happened after that. Same situation with November and the first 2/3's of December 2000 before a colder than average winter 2000/01 set in, admittedly not as cold as 2009/10 but mild autumn doesn't automatically mean mild winter to come. Remember late October and then November 2005. We have very similar pattern now with persistent southerly winds and above average temps. Then a big flip mid November 2005 and snow was seen by late in the month.

Would be a memorable northerly snap for Bonfire Night if it came off GFS Extended P04 at +420 hours away -5 isotherm over very much all of the UK with the -10 isotherm over the N and E. The -15 isotherm almost into the far north too.

Weather is cool finally has this back up once more Rather interesting to note that GFS and CFS have different ideas on where the vortex is going in the near term. GFS looks to ramp things up a bit as we head into November. However CFS even on these bias corrected runs looks to be weakening the vortex through both November and December and only really strengthening things into January. For the sake of a colder winter coldies should back the CFS here and gamble on a SSW late December to keep things weak into next year.

Could do with removing that SE Europe high, otherwise looks quite promising compared with the usual output we see. Best hope there is from northerlies with above average heights in SE Europe as any cold from the east will be diverted down to Greece, Turkey and Egypt.

Interestingly snow spikes keep on consistently cropping up at the back end of October on the GFS runs. Is the GFS sniffing out another October 2008 or 2012 maybe. Also the extended run is showing snow potential for Bonfire Night too.

All looks like a very CP Nina pattern with most chance of cold early on before the polar vortex and the Atlantic takes over later on. February looks very zonal to me.

Recent daily CET means back this up too. Early on in October it looked like we were going to be trending well below October 2014 this month but we have soon caught up again and in fact in recent days we are trending above October 2014 once again. Guess the possibility of another above average month is well and truly on again as well as the all time record annual CET falling and an 11C CET year is looking almost certain now unless we see a dramatic cooling off. Provisional October data so far vs October 2014 data Date CET 2022 Rolling 2022 CET 2014 Rolling 2014 Rolling 2022 - Rolling 2014 1st 14.00 14.00 15.60 15.60 -1.600 2nd 13.50 13.75 13.60 14.60 -0.850 3rd 11.40 12.97 15.20 14.80 -1.830 4th 13.90 13.20 13.20 14.40 -1.200 5th 14.90 13.54 9.40 13.40 +0.140 6th 12.60 13.38 10.60 12.93 +0.450 7th 14.30 13.51 9.80 12.49 +1.020 8th 11.30 13.24 11.00 12.30 +0.940 9th 10.70 12.96 12.50 12.32 +0.640 10th 11.00 12.76 12.10 12.30 +0.460 11th 8.70 12.39 11.30 12.21 +0.180 12th 9.60 12.16 8.40 11.89 +0.270

Often think its better to get the cold air in over Europe early and established with a front loaded start to winter. This way when the milder air tries to come back it is very likely to either: 1 - Cause battleground snow events until the milder air eventually wins out resulting in the final outcome of a front loaded winter or 2 - Mild air tries to get in, we see snow events then the Atlantic fails and the troughs repeatedly slide down into Europe keeping the cold locked in resulting in a fully loaded winter I find waiting for a back loaded winter more tedious and there's always that chance it may never come resulting in a mild borefest instead or a total washout with flooding and storms.

Not only that the -NAO looks east based too which should favour NW Europe for a change. However the lack of lower than average anomalies to the south means it could end up a bit like 2018/19 with Iberian heights or Central European height getting in the way of anything cold coming. Could do with lower heights appearing to the south across most of southern Europe and the Azores to make this a bit more nailed on.

Light in the Storm » QBO WWW.LIGHTINTHESTORM.COM "Another NAO forcing mechanism is the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). If we compare the NAO and AMO curves over the past several decades, there’s an apparent connection between the upswing and downswing of the AMO, and NAO values. Notice how the NAO averaged positive after the AMO minima of 20s and the 70s, while the NAO averaged negative after the AMO maxima of the mid/late 40s, and the mid 2000s. The NAO has been trending more negative over recent years, and this fits the overall AMO cycle as well. The NAO has its own decadal cycle as shown in the first image, and the curve is trending down since 2000, but the unprecedented solar factor is definitely aiding in the sustained negative NAO since 2008" The above is a quote from the text in this link and goes to explain a lot of the milder winters from around 1980 onwards. This means we should be due a period of more -NAO winters soon if we start descending proper into the cold AMO phase and the recent milder winters really since 2013 are because we saw another warming of the AMO You can see the clear link they mention with the -NAO phases generally at the same point of Atlantic cooling and the +NAO phases at the same point as Atlantic warming. We know how generally mild the 1990's winters were. I do believe this was the decade we switched from the cold AMO to the warm AMO and this mid point was bound to have the biggest +NAO signal.

stratosphere LA.CLIMATOLOGIE.FREE.FR It says so here the following Low Solar + EQBO = Weak Vortex Low Solar + WQBO = Strong Vortex High Solar + EQBO = Strong Vortex High Solar + WQBO = Weak Vortex Light in the Storm » QBO WWW.LIGHTINTHESTORM.COM Also this one could be well worth a read too

Maybe not all doom and gloom if you want something colder. Solar activity is steadily climbing still and we are in a WQBO. Initially looks bad but the combination of higher solar activity with a WQBO results in a weaker vortex on average. Maybe this is why models are picking out above average heights to the north of the UK. The spike up in solar last winter was what probably did for us as the higher solar activity with EQBO combination usually powers up the vortex. Likely winter CET predictions based purely on solar activity and QBO Winter QBO Solar CET Prediction 2022/23 WQBO Moderate to High Average or Below Average most likely 2023/24 EQBO High Milder than average 2024/25 WQBO High (Solar max winter) Below average likely 2025/26 W to E High Average (Above average more than below) 2026/27 E to W Moderate Above average most likely 2027/28 WQBO Low Average 2028/29 EQBO Low Below average 2029/30 WQBO Very Low (Solar Min?) Below average (Odd to Even cycle min) 2030/31 EQBO Very Low Much below average (Year after min) Assuming no other factors get in the way such as strong ENSO then these predictions are the most likely outcome but no guarantees of course.

Well worth a read for those who like cold weather in winter. However I remember the models going for northern blocking for winter 2018/19 and how promising that all looked for then the pattern to turn out mild instead overall.

I would imagine in ROI cold polar NW winds would give you far more snow than any easterly unless you can get convection going over the Irish Sea somehow. As a resident in eastern England I always look for easterlies as my best bet for snow with a direct flow off the North Sea. Late November/Early December 2010 delivered over 40cm of snow for me. As for Feb 2009, Dec 2000 and Feb 2001 my best event was the Christmas to New Year period at the end of 2000 with back end of Feb 2001 a close 2nd. Didn't do particularly well from Feb 2009, cold yes but snow amounts were quite small overall.

Latest 9 monthly CFS 00z run looks like a classic SSW impacted run Christmas Day 2022 A classic Ural high setup here on Christmas Day, no doubt a SSW is either starting or will be underway soon if not on this day. The UK generally mild and wet at this stage, the typical green Christmas. January 2nd 2023 The Ural high is still there but it has moved more towards Scandi here and this is giving the UK a teaser cold snap from the east. January 10th 2023 High pressure has collapsed over the UK. This is very likely the period where the SSW is actually taking place. The vortex over the pole looks to already be splitting into two sections. January 15th 2023 The split vortex is still showing. What is also starting to show is retrogression of the UK high out towards the W and N. Is something big about to be unleashed here in the cold department? January 18th 2023 Here it comes. Blocking out to the W and troughing to the E. Here comes the Arctic northerly and the first real blast of cold. The vortex looks to be in 3 pieces by this stage and real signs that a SSW has taken place. January 26th 2023 The cold pattern continues on for at least 8 days until by this day the high pressure collapses back down into the UK. February 1st 2023 For a few days it looks like the Atlantic is about to rule once again but the blocking returns to the north and we enter proper cold round 2. February 6th 2023 This is looking like a battleground scenario with the risk of disruptive snow over England and Wales as the trough comes up against the cold air February 9th 2023 Unfortunately for the coldies the mild air wins out and the cold is pushed away although with the ongoing blocking over Greenland there's always the chance it will return. February 18th 2023 We enter a period of almost 2 weeks of Atlantic dominated weather but as I stated before the cold still had a chance it may return. February 21st 2023 Winter's last hurrah. The cold does make a comeback but a very temporary one with a brief northerly toppler. I haven't posted anymore charts as all that happens after this is the Atlantic comes roaring back in and that is winter over with a stormy March showing up on this particular run.

Got to look at that Giacamo Masato model with glee as a coldie. Blocking near Greenland of course but more so for that huge block over Scandi and the Urals. The polar vortex will very likely be toast if that comes off and the big SSW that could be generated from that setup.

Have to wonder where all this cold is suddenly coming from after all the warmth and heat of this year. GFS Extended run today not picking up this cold signal. Uppers very much close to average but a lot of scatter as expected at this range.

October 2008 repeat anyone? P29 on today's GFS 12z showing snow That is the first GFS run this autumn that I have seen showing a snow spike. Maybe, just maybe P29 might be correct and we get off to a very early start like we did in 2008 and of course we know what happened after that. The first proper colder than average winter for over a decade after the generally milder winters from 1997/98 through to 2007/08.

ENSO in 1981/82 was neutral and 2000/01 was weak La Nina. 1981/82 isn't a good match unless La Nina collapses. 2000/01 is a better match for ENSO. EQBO in both 1981/82 and 2000/01 so no match to what we see for 2022/23 Basically I'd put better odds on a 2000/01 repeat over a 1981/82 repeat as similar to 2022/23 both will be 3rd year in a row La Nina winters and both this winter and 2000/01 are at similar places in the solar cycle and both odd solar cycles too.

The thing about last winter was that we had another polar vortex of doom but unlike in 2019/20 when it was close enough to give us a wet zonal winter last winter the positioning of this polar vortex of doom was far enough away from us that we ended up with a high pressure dominated mild borefest but close enough that is stopped us from getting any northern blocking going. I'd call 2019/20 the kind of winter you would expect with a strong polar vortex and useful rain in the months you would expect to get it whereas 2021/22 was the wrong kind of strong vortex winter where we have the perfect pattern to deliver needed winter rainfall but we end up dry instead and the end result is the drought we have had over the summer as the dry pattern simply continued.