SqueakheartLW

That wouldn't surprise me

Think the evening could be the best time for the main action. Here's me hoping whilst there's nothing on the radar anywhere near me at present

Netweather does have my area right smack bang in the middle of the most severe storm action here If this ends up a bust it will be such a disappointment.

CFS has yet again reduced the peak of the El Nino event and now has it peaking at +1.7C What is of more interest is how the older members (Red Lines) are higher up whilst the more recent members (Blue Lines) are even lower with the peak. SOI Dashboard SOI Dashboard | LongPaddock | Queensland Government WWW.LONGPADDOCK.QLD.GOV.AU What I have also noticed here is the 30 day running SOI mean and how it has in general become less negative throughout June. This could also explain the further toning down of this event and how we are now predicted to peak almost 1C lower than the initial prediction of +2.6C, now down to +1.7C Current late Autumn El Nino anomaly values at time of NINO 3.4 peak from latest CFS forecast. Nino 4 = +1.3C Nino 3.4 = +1.7C NINO 3 = +1.8C NINO 1+2 = +1.2C Still not really a CP event yet as we need NINO 3 to cool down a bit more but at least it looks like a super El Nino is currently off completely and it is now looking more marginal for a strong event now but very good support for a stronger end of moderate El Nino at present.

Up to 23rd June we are provisionally 7th compared with the top 10 Junes from 1772 to 2022 inclusive. The anomaly value is how 2023 compares with the year mentioned so negative values mean 2023 is running behind the particular year whilst positive anomalies mean we are currently running ahead. 1846 is miles ahead of any of the other top 10 Junes at this stage and as we know 1846 goes on to finish top. We are currently tracking closest to June 1940 and 1970 which are just ahead of this year by a small margin with 1822 a little further ahead. We are closest to 1826 for a year currently behind this one What is of most interest is how we are currently 1.222C ahead of June 1976 at this stage but that year had hot weather to close out the month so I expect 1976 to close the gap to 2023. Whether we finish ahead of or behind 1976 is the question as it looks like we are going to see very little in it, maybe even a tie by the end of the month.

Summers of 2013 to 2022 Ranking by months Junes 1 2017 Very warm and sunny, hot at times 2 2018 Sunny and warm, especially late in the month 3 2014 Warm and humid 4 2022 A poor start but quickly improves, a sunny and warm end 5 2016 Not very memorable 6 2013 Relatively cool at times but some good sunshine at times 7 2021 Nothing special 8 2019 Generally poor 9 2020 A relatively poor month after spring 2020 with one hot spell near the end 10 2015 Poor with rain at times Julys 1 2018 Hot and sunny 2 2013 Generally hot and sunny, a good thundery breakdown late on 3 2022 very warm to hot and sunny, one extreme heat spike with 40C recorded 4 2014 Very warm and humid with some thundery activity 5 2021 Very warm and at times sunny, the best month of summer 2021 6 2016 A warm month with one brief hot spell 7 2017 Not too bad, warm and humid to begin but getting worse later on 8 2019 Poor overall but a few days of exceptional heat late on 9 2020 A meh July but not as bad as 2015 10 2015 One heat spike at the start, otherwise a poor month and wet Augusts 1 2022 Very warm to hot and sunny 2 2020 A very warm to hot start with some thunder, average and more unsettled later on 3 2019 Starts poor but becomes hotter and sunnier later in the month 4 2018 A let down month to 2018, average and at times unsettled, similar to August 2017 5 2017 average and at times unsettled 6 2013 changeable, a heat spike early on but average at best after this 7 2016 Not very memorable and in general summer 2016 is the least memorable of all these summers 8 2021 A meh August but easily beats both 2015 and 2014 9 2015 unsettled but not as bad as 2014 10 2014 very cool, a poor August, easily the worst month of summer 2014 and Augusts between 2013 and 2022 Rankings Using a scoring system similar to when I ranked years in the 1990's and 2000' where I rank the best month with a score of 10 down to a score of 1 for the worst, resulting in a summer score out of 30 overall. This is the result I came up with based on the above rankings. Overall Position Summer Overall Score June Score July Score August Score 1st 2018 26/30 9/10 10/10 7/10 2nd 2022 25/30 7/10 8/10 10/10 3rd 2017 20/30 10/10 4/10 6/10 4th 2013 19/30 5/10 9/10 5/10 5th 2014 16/30 8/10 7/10 1/10 6th 2016 15/30 6/10 5/10 4/10 7th 2019 14/30 3/10 3/10 8/10 8th 2020 13/30 2/10 2/10 9/10 9th 2021 13/30 4/10 6/10 3/10 10th 2015 4/30 1/10 1/10 2/10 As expected it was a toss up between 2018 and 2022 for the best summers between 2013 and 2022. 2018 only just edges it for me as that extreme heat spike was what ensured 2022 finished below 2018 as that was simply too hot and too extreme, even for me. Otherwise easily the top 2 summers of this particular decade of summers. Next we had another close call between summer 2017 and 2013 that took 3rd and 4th positions for me. Summer 2017 got ahead of 2013 for me. 2017 easily had the best June of the period 2013 to 2022. July was what made the summer of 2013. Both of these summers had a let down of an August but by no means the worst Augusts of the 2013 to 2022 period either which was what helped put these summers ahead of the rest. In general summer's 2014, 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2021 aren't that far apart in my opinion. All of them had their good moments or events such as one decent month, some good thundery activity or a few hot snaps. Overall 2014 comes out as the best one of this bunch due to 2 months of warm and thundery weather with 2021 bottom of the group with only 1 somewhat decent month. All of these summers had at least a month that let them down or overall unsettled or average conditions or were not that memorable. This held all of them back and ensured they took 5th to 9th positions. The one sore thumb and clear stand out loser here and by far the poorest summer of the whole bunch was 2015. June and July were very poor and even the 1 day heat spike event didn't save July 2015. August 2015 for me scored marginally better than August 2014 as it wasn't quite as cool but only just got ahead of it. No wonder summer 2015 scored a pathetic 4/30.

It would be a very long shot but could the warmest June on the CET record between 1772 and 2022 fall June 1846 record of 18.197C Would take some very hot days to close out the month so I think this particular year will probably be safe for another year

I do also wonder if EQBO fights against super El Nino's as all 3 super events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 all came under neutral or WQBO regimes.

EL Nino isn't developing as rapidly as either CFS or ECM predicted and in all NINO regions we are already trending less warm with the anomalies than predicted. In the above table I have shown what both ECM and CFS predicted for NINO anomalies in each region alongside what actually happened in the end in May 2023. Every single value was cooler than predicted, especially further east in the equatorial Pacific. This is reflected in the latest CFS predictions which have toned down the event a bit more. At the start of May the CFS was going for a region 3.4 peak of +2.6C. Latest region 3.4 CFS forecast Now the CFS is only going for a peak of around +1.8C, removing the super Nino threat entirely. This is good news for cold winter lovers who want to avoid a December 2015 repeat. I would like this +1.8C to drop a little further to be fair and if region 3 can drop a lot more too to make this more of a CP event then we may be in with a chance. June 2023 so far At the start of the month these were the predictions for each month right up to December 2023 from both ECM and CFS. Still going for a strong to super event here they both were at the start of the month but as we know from above CFS has been toning down the event further. The main thing is how both were going for region 3.4 in June to be around the +1.0C to +1.1C mark. The recent data I have gathered from tropical tidbits and the daily values suggest both of these predictions are going to be overestimates. So far all figures for June 2023 have come in under +1.0C and with only 10 days of the month to go I can't see how we are going to get anywhere close to +1.0C unless we see a massive warmup and in fact we would need to average at +1.48C for all 10 days to even break even at +1.0C so I think we are most definitely going to fall short of the predictions yet again. More support for how the models were overdoing things and increases the chances that this event may end up coming in at moderate.

We are actually trending very close to both 2022 and 2014 right now with the provisional rolling CET based on data up to 18th June 2023 We are currently the 8th warmest year on the CET record between 1878 and 2022 provisionally and currently only 0.152C behind 2022 at this stage. Looking at this data here using only the years that went on to finish as the top 10 warmest (2022, 2014, 2006, 2020, 2011, 2018, 1999, 1990, 1949 and 2002) we are very much middle of the group at this stage compared with those years. If we maintain the current deficit of 0.152C to 2022 we can see that in the list on the right of the data sheet we would come in 2nd position by the end of the year with an annual CET mean of 10.997C, just missing out on another 11C year but if we stay as we are it could be another close run thing that goes right down to the very last day of the year. The other important factor here would be how 2 years in a row we smash the very warm year of 2014 and in fact looking at this list there is a striking number of very warm years since 2000 and 6 of the 10 are since 2010. Surely we cannot be talking about yet another 11C year just after last year already.

Maybe we'll be in luck yet. It seems Scunthorpe is also in the path of that storm free zone too. This area to the south has seen precipitation activity start up recently. Maybe the next burst of storm development is taking place here.

Looks like the development of NINO has stalled based on these recent SST changes This is also reflected in the recent data I have gathered from tropical tidbits too. You can see how during early May we were slowly creeping up to El Nino threshold in region 3.4 and around the middle of the month we did see 3 days of Weak El Nino. Since then we have generally started to cool things down, not just in region 3.4 but all regions have cooled somewhat since then, especially region 1+2. Now is this a temporary thing and then we resume the path to El Nino or are we seeing the first signs here of a failed El Nino. The historical events based on the PDO as well as previous season ENSO status of La Nina as well as strongly negative PDO to open the year do suggest we have quite a high chance of a failure of El Nino. Below we have the data I gathered from this a few weeks back. It showed that under the circumstances of La Nina the previous ENSO season as well as a strongly negative PDO to open up the year. Of the 39 years that featured this, 22 of 39 went on to feature another La Nina, 9 of 39 went on to be neutral and 8 of 39 went on to develop El Nino. This statistically means we have a 31 in 39 chance that El Nino will fail to develop this year. Now is the recent cooling a sign of this or is it just a temporary blip?

You beat me to it. I'd been considering this 2000's thread but I shall answer using the same method I used to assess the 1990's years and as I remember the 2000's even more than the 1990's then I have a more accurate representation of each year and as before I'll use the summers and winters to judge. Winters ranked 1st 2009/10 An obvious top choice of winter for me. Was easily the coldest and the best of all of the winters. Saw plenty of snow back end of December and into early January. Snow was more on and off after this but as all 3 winter months were colder than average too then this one is an easy top spot for me. 2nd 2008/09 2008/09 ranks 2nd here mostly due to the persistent cold as well as the little bit of snow in the December and even more so the February cold spell that lasted 2 weeks. The milder 2nd half of February 2009 as well as the lack of January snow ensured this winter was below 2009/10. 3rd 2000/01 Although not exceptionally cold a winter this one easily got 3rd position. Managed to see a covering of snow in every month between December 2000 and March 2001 at some stage. The December cold spell was arguably the best one of the winter for my location. 4th 2005/06 2005/06 got 4th position here and it was a close run thing between this one and 2002/03 and 2003/04. 2005/06 only ranked above 2002/03 and 2003/04 due to being a colder winter overall. Only saw settling snow in the December and the March and this winter was let down by a lack of anything snowy in January and February. 5th 2002/03 2002/03 for me saw roughly the same snow total as I got in 2005/06, mostly concentrated on early and late January 2003. The other months were a bit of a let down. 6th 2003/04 2003/04 concludes the mid group of winters that had nothing much to choose between them overall. All had something that let them down and dragged them down to this middle group. 2003/04 was the case of colder snaps cancelled out by longer milder periods that really ruined what could have been a better winter than it was. 7th 2004/05 2004/05 and 2001/02 only occupy 7th and 8th due to being better in my opinion than the dire winters below these 2. 2004/05 was really a mirror image of 2001/02 with the cold coming late on in winter 2004/05 vs early in 2001/02. 2004/05 only ranked above 2001/02 due to less horrendous mild in 2004/05 vs 2001/02 although in my opinion the cold of December 2001 ranked above the cold of February 2005. 8th 2001/02 See 2004/05 description above. 9th 2007/08 2007/08 sees the 3 concluding winters in this series and by far the worst 3 winters of the decade. 2007/08 was the least bad one of the bunch and although it happened in March 2008 it was the white Easter that pulled this winter above the remaining 2 winters. 10th 1999/00 A dire winter overall but less dire than the remaining one. This one was generally devoid of anything wintry outside of the mid December 1999 period, one of those winters that showed early promise before fading away into a mild zonal horror show. 11th 2006/07 The worst winter by far due to horrendous mild weather, lots of rain and missing out on what snow did fall. Not quite as bad as more recent winters of 2013/14, 2015/16 and 2019/20 however. Summers ranked 1st 2003 Was a toss up between 2003 and 2006 and for me 2003 took it due to the warm thundery June and July as well as that memorable August 2003 heatwave. 2nd 2006 2006 was similar to 2003 in a way for the June and July at least with a mix of heat and some thunder. August 2006 was the let down that dragged 2006 below 2003. 3rd 2005 2005 was overall a decent warm summer, not as thundery as 2003 or 2006 but easily a clear 3rd position here. 4th 2004 2004 for what was quite a wet summer ranked fairly highly due to quite a bit of thundery activity that pulled this summer up the order somewhat. 5th 2009 2009 was the best of the summers left and was fairly close to 2004 in terms of overall rank but the lower amount of thundery activity put 2009 below 2004. 6th 2001 2001 for me was very much a typical average summer with a mix of heat, thunder and cooler fresher weather. Nothing particularly stood out in this summer. 7th 2002 2002 was one of those mediocre boring summers similar to 2001 but even less memorable so for me ranked below it. Still ranked above the remaining 3 summers however. 8th 2008 The final 3 summers see the trio of shocker wet and/or cool summers. 2008 in my opinion just squeezed ahead of 2007 due to better weather earlier in the summer compared with 2007 and overall lower rainfall totals. 9th 2007 2007 was a real shocker, at least the June and July were. August 2007 was better but due to a coolish August this ensured summer 2008 just squeezed above summer 2007. 10th 2000 Summer 2000 was for me easily hands down the worst summer of the 2000's. Apart from a very brief shot of heat mid June 2000 the rest of the summer was either wet, cool or both in one combination or another. Whenever we got dry weather it was always quite cool with it or cloudy and when it rained you certainly knew about it, especially when it combined with cool temperatures too. Overall rankings by year As before when I assessed years in the 1990's summers are on a range of 20 points for the best through to 2 points for the worst whilst winters before and after get 10 points down to 1 giving a total out of 40 as before. Here are my results with a description after the table of why each year ended up where it is. Ranking Year Overall Score Summers Previous Winter Following Winter 1st 2009 32 12 10 10 2nd 2003 32 20 7 5 3rd 2005 28 16 5 7 4th 2006 27 18 8 1 5th 2004 24 14 6 4 6th 2001 22 10 9 3 7th 2008 18 6 3 9 8th 2002 18 8 4 6 9th 2000 12 2 2 8 10th 2007 7 4 1 2 Overall as expected I thought the best year would be either 2003 or 2009. 2003 mostly for that summer along with not that bad a winter to open 2003 but the winter to end the year was the bit that dragged 2003 down to tie with 2009. 2009 on the other hand was mostly made by both the winter that opened the year and even more so the one that ended the year. The summer was the let down that prevented a clear win by 2009. Overall as I am a fan of cold and snowy winters then 2009 in my opinion got top spot due to this. It was close between 2005 and 2006 overall with both having quite good summers overall and sandwiched between them was one of the colder winters of the decade. The main thing that dragged both 2005 and 2006 down were the mediocre to poor winters that opened 2005 and ended 2006. 2004 was a clear 5th here overall with the at times thundery summer and the average to mediocre winters either side preventing 2004 from getting any higher than 5th. 2001 was another year that could have done better. Got off to a good start with that quite decent 2000/01 winter but the rest of the year wasn't up to much. December 2001 was quite a good winter month but the rest of that winter was dire and helped drag 2001 down to 6th position. Both 2008 and 2002 came in at 18 points and overall were not that great years weather wise. 2008 for me ranked above 2002 due to the cold winter that ended the year unlike in 2002 where a mild winter opened the year and December 2002 was mild overall too which decided 7th and 8th for me in the end. The year 2000 somehow ended up in 9th despite the mild horror show winter that opened up the year as well as the dire summer and this is overall due to the decent winter that ended 2000 which pulled 2000 up from the fate of bottom spot. The honours of bottom spot go to 2007 here and this doesn't really surprise me in the slightest to be fair. A poor to dire summer with mild winters bookending the year with the mildest winter of the 2000's to open up the year followed by another bore fest mild winter to end the year. No wonder 2007 scored a paltry 7 out of 40 points overall.

As I have spotted a "Best to Worst years in the 1980's" thread here recently and have no real memories of the decade since I was born in the mid part of this decade I thought I would feature the main decade of my childhood, the 1990's Mildness was unfortunately a common theme of the winters in this decade and as a snow loving child it wasn't the best decade to grow up in. The summers were generally a mix and provided at least more variety than the winters did. Overall ranking for me would put 1995 at the top due to the decent summer and the cold December and I'd probably put 1993 at the bottom with 1998 2nd to bottom due to poor summers in both years and little if any wintry weather in 1998 or early 1993. Ranking the years by winters and summers Winters If I take the same years and rank them by the winters, meaning 1989/90 through to 1998/99 so encompassing the bigger part of both winters 1989/90 and 1998/99 in the correct decade for simplification sees the order chance somewhat compared with the overall rating. 1st 1995/96 1995 and 1996 still rank highly here and this is thanks to the best winter of the 1990's for cold and snow with winter 1995/96. The only let down was January 1996 with that 3 weeks of mild dull dross, otherwise the best winter of the decade. 2nd 1996/97 A close call between 1996/97 and 1990/91 but as I have better memories of the cold and snowy period at the end of December 1996 into January 1997 it squeezed into 2nd position. 3rd 1990/91 Similar level to 1996/97 really but as the cold was mostly focused on a few days in February 1991 then 1996/97 just edged it for me over this year that I have less memories of anyway. 4th 1993/94 Probably after the 3 winters above 1993/94 was probably the most snowy of the remaining winters and just edges it over 1998/99 due to less mild winter overall compared with 1998/99 5th 1998/99 Unusual for me to rank one of the mildest winters of the 1990's so high up the list but this is due to the fact that it had several colder snaps that pretty much delivered snow for me on every single one of them. The longer mild dross periods between the cold snaps were what dragged this winter down to 5th position however. 6th 1994/95 Another mild dross winter that ranks a bit higher than expected for a cold snow lover and this is due to the frosty weather in December 1994 as well as the 25th January 1995 snow event. 7th 1991/92 Just a total bore fest of a winter really but still ranked higher than 1992/93, 1989/90 and 1997/98 due to less mild weather overall compared with the other 3. 8th 1992/93 The least bad of the remaining winters was 1992/93 and this is because it was the least mild of these 3 poor mild wet winters. 9th 1989/90 Didn't know whether to put 1989/90 here or 1997/98 but as my memories of 1997/98 winter were so bad it meant 1989/90 ranked above it even though this was equally as horrific for cold lovers. 10th 1997/98 That super Nino and the dreaded mild winter to me was the worst winter I can remember of the 1990's. Even the brief cold snap in December and the even more brief one in January couldn't save this one from bottom spot. Although I didn't include winter 1999/00 as the bulk of it was in the 2000's so therefore a 2000's winter for me it would have ranked low down the list too as the only "good" bit of that winter to me was between 13th and 21st December 1999, the rest of it was poor with mild dross the main theme. Summers Much easier to rank the summers by specific years as they don't span 2 years. 1st 1995 Hands down the best summer of the decade for that warm/hot and dry weather that dominated. The lack of thunderstorms was the main let down but wasn't enough to drag this summer down from top spot. 2nd 1994 A classic heat, thunderstorms and reload summer this one was. Remember several episodes like this with a plume, followed by storms then a cooldown before it began again. Miss summers like this now. 3rd 1996 I remember this summer being half decent too with a few thundery episodes but a little less good than 1994 was so ranked below it as a result. 4th 1997 This summer would have ranked higher than 4th if it were not for that shocking wet June. July's dry weather and August 1997's humid thundery weather helped to pull this summer back up to 4th. 5th 1990 The decent August heat as well as generally good weather saw this summer come 5th overall but ranked below the others due to less memory of this summer as well as less thundery activity than 3 of the above. 6th 1999 Overall a mixed summer with cool wet weather, dry weather and a couple of thundery episodes as well. Very much a bog standard summer and nothing particularly stood out so a mid rating of 6th was all it deserved really. 7th 1991 Don't remember anything specific about summers 1991 or 1992 but I had to put them somewhere and as they appeared on the record to be less bad than both 1998 and 1993 they simply occupied 7th and 8th positions. Not much to choose between them but 1991 looked to be marginally better so took 7th ahead of 1992 8th 1992 See 7th placed summer 1991's description. 9th 1998 A toss up between 1993 and 1998 here as both were shockingly bad summers and easily the two worst ones of the 1990's. As 1998 had a better August than 1993 and overall summer 1998 was less cold than 1993 then it squeezed ahead of it. 10th 1993 What a stinker of a summer this one was, cold and wet was the main theme and there were very few warm and dry spells within it. To me this was the worst summer of the 1990's Overall ranking of years I have used a points system here based on where I ranked the summer as well as the previous and following winter to rank the years overall. Summers take double points to remove the bias of using the winters either side of the year. The summers are ranked from 1st taking 20 points down to 10th taking just 2 points. The previous and following winters use the same system except 1st takes 10 points down to 10th taking just 1 point. The following is the result I came up with. Position YEAR OVERALL SCORE Summer (Score x2) Winter (Previous) Winter (Following) 1st 1995 35 20 5 10 2nd 1996 35 16 10 9 3rd 1994 30 18 7 5 4th 1997 24 14 9 1 5th 1990 22 12 2 8 6th 1991 20 8 8 4 7th 1999 18 10 6 2 8th 1992 13 6 4 3 9th 1993 12 2 3 7 10th 1998 11 4 1 6 Looking at my ranking system it does roughly tie in with my thoughts that 1995 and 1996 were overall the best years of the 1990's for me weather wise with 1994 getting a decent 3rd position overall. 1997 could have ranked higher if there wasn't to be a shocker of a winter to end the year, similar with 1990 with that shocker 1989/90 winter that started it off that dragged 1990 down a bit. 1991 ranked a bit higher than I thought it might, maybe due to the quite good 1990/91 winter that started the year and this same winter also pulled 1990 up a little bit too. No real surprise to see 1993 and 1998 at the bottom of the list however as overall the worst years of the 1990's. 1993 only got above 1998 as 1993 actually had not that bad a winter at the end of the year whilst 1998 was bookended by milder winters with that poor summer too so no surprise 1998 came out last.

Out of interest the CFS is also going for a tripole in the N Atlantic in November 2023 too

Could be due to the prediction of a CP El Nino event Region 3.4 warmer than 1+2

Think 1972/73 and 1991/92 are strong El Nino events, not super El Nino events but the main comparisons that should really be done are EP El Nino vs CP El Nino. EP El Nino Note the general below average heights to our north and above average heights to the south during the winter months with an EP El Nino in force. A mild pattern looks to be favoured with EP El Nino's CP El Nino Much more interesting for cold winter lovers with the CP El Nino years with above average heights to the north and below average heights to the south. A chance of something colder here at least. Now I could divide this up further with strength of EL Nino as well as positioning of the warmest anomalies Weak El Nino (All years) Weak El Nino (EP Events) Weak El Nino (CP Events) Weak El Nino (All years) - It would seem overall that a weak El Nino is a good signal for a colder winter with blocking to the north but the signal isn't all that strong and a few of the weak El Nino years are in fact mild winters like 2006/07 for example and 2004/05 as well. Weak El Nino (EP Events) - These look worse than the overall average for weak El Nino events as a whole for cold winters and it is probably to be expected based on the EP vs CP anomalies above this section. Weak El Nino (CP Events) - A slightly stronger signal for cold here but as before still not that strong. Maybe the fact that these are weak El Nino's means the forcing from El Nino isn't that strong so other factors can be more dominant. Moderate El Nino (All years - CP Events) One curious thing I noticed here was how every single moderate El Nino post 1948 was a CP event and there were no Moderate EP El Nino's at all. As for the anomalies a clear signal for northern blocking here with the placement of it crucial to the outcome of that winter. In 2009/10 and 1986/87 it was in a good position for cold whilst 1994/95 was not so good and probably west based -NAO leaving the UK in the firing line for a mild winter. Strong El Nino (All years) Strong El Nino (EP Events) Strong El Nino (CP Events) Not many years to go on here as we only have 3 strong El Nino events between 1948 and now but one clear signal with both EP and CP events is that strong El Nino's favour a lot of ridging close to the UK with the EP event of 1972/73 favouring a milder more zonal ridge with the core of the heights further to our east compared with the CP years (1987/88 and 1991/92) where the ridging is more over the UK. This would very likely mean the CP years end up colder due to increased chances of frosts pulling the CET down a bit. Super El Nino (All years - EP Events) As with the strong El Nino events before this we have very few years to choose from for the Super El Nino events and all of them are EP based as well. A horror show chart here for cold winter lovers with that long fetch SW flow the average mean for these years. Hope the event developing this year doesn't go super or winter is finished if this mean holds true once again. Summary Out of all the years it seems that CP El Nino's are better than EP ones and is also seems we need to keep the event weak or even better moderate to give us a shot at a colder winter. If we go strong it seems we get a high pressure bore fest and super means mild wet washout.

Looks like both CFS and ECM are still going for strong or super El Nino events but there is that feeling that they could both be overdoing it but since they both appear to agree with each other makes me feel that this could end up a strong or super El Nino event. CFS and ECM Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Getting monthly anomalies based on these graphs Now getting a monthly mean is relatively simple with CFS as they very kindly stick an average line on their charts but the ECM ones are a rough guess based on what can be seen and may not be totally correct but shouldn't be that far out. Below I have created a table comparing both sets of charts from each model for each NINO region between now and November 2023. The peak anomaly in each region is highlighted in bold Region May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov NINO 4 CFS +0.4C +0.7C +1.1C +1.4C +1.7C +1.9C +1.7C NINO 4 ECM +0.5C +0.8C +1.0C +1.2C +1.3C +1.5C +1.7C NINO 3.4 CFS +0.5C +1.1C +1.6C +1.8C +2.1C +2.3C +2.6C NINO 3.4 ECM +0.6C +1.0C +1.5C +1.6C +1.7C +1.9C +2.0C NINO 3 CFS +1.0C +1.5C +2.0C +2.2C +2.2C +2.2C +2.3C NINO 3 ECM +1.2C +1.8C +2.2C +2.3C +2.2C +2.2C +2.3C NINO1+2 CFS +2.5C +2.3C +2.3C +2.1C +1.7C +1.6C +1.6C NINO1+2 ECM +2.8C +3.0C +3.2C +3.0C +2.8C +2.3C +2.4C Predicted Type EP EP EP EP EP Mixed Mixed Both models think we are going to be into El Nino during this month at some stage, the ECM slightly more keen to do this than the CFS. After this the event just takes off if these predictions are correct. In region 3.4 the CFS gets us to super Nino territory by September but the ECM only just scrapes us there by November which would suggest a strong rather than super event predicted by ECM What is of interest here is that both models start with an EP El Nino but then diverge later on. ECM sticks with an EP event throughout but only really gets it to strong El Nino territory. The CFS is interesting here in this update in what it does with this event for those wanting a colder winter for 2023/24. It peaks the event at +2.6C in region 3.4 but note that CFS is going for something which hasn't been seen in recorded El Nino history, a Super CP El Nino with +2.6C in region 3.4 vs only +1.6C in region 1+2 and even region 4 is predicted to have warmer anomalies than 1+2. A Super CP El Nino is uncharted territory here and I do wonder what effect that would have on the winter in the UK if this came off. Could it be 2009/10 on steroids meaning a 1962/63 repeat perhaps?

Got to feel sorry for you in York. One passed to your north and the other to the south hit me head on

Just been sat under that storm. It's lasted for almost 1 hour now. Lots of lightning and thunder in Scunthorpe but looks like it's now clearing away

Ties in with the 2 analogue years I got from my ENSO outcomes based on historical PDO data then although you haven't mentioned 1972 but 2009 is there and coincidentally +0.5 just so happens to be the same as that year at the same stage. Since it is also looking like we'll be going into an EQBO in the next few months then 2 boxes ticked that we did in 2009 so increases the chances of a cold blocked winter like that one for 2023/24 The only problem we have now is high solar activity compared with 2009 that could scupper our chances of a cold winter.

Maybe 2022 (last year) could qualify. Dry or very dry for large parts of it particularly January, March, April, May, July and August 2022 A couple of wetter months in February and September 2022. Some exceptional mild or hot spells particularly July and August as well as October and November 2022 Extreme heat spike in July 2022 with that 40.3C record. Finally that freezing cold spell in December 2022 as well.

Not convinced we'll get anything above moderate at the highest to be fair although you never know what the atmosphere might do and if it couples up with the rising sub surface warm anomalies or fights against it but based on historical events the combination of a La Nina the previous season and a very negative PDO generally goes against the development of an El Nino although it can happen. January to March average PDO's at or below -1.000 Take a good look at the data in the table I have created showing all of the years between 1870 and 2022 that featured average PDO values between January and March of -1.000 or lower. The first notable thing is just how many of those January to March periods came off the back of a La Nina. Of the 40 years we have data for here including 2022/23, 27 of the 40 were La Nina events and of the remaining 13 only 2 were El Nino's and they were weak ones too. The remaining 11 years were ENSO neutral, most on the colder side of neutral too. The important part in regards to what could happen this year in the development of ENSO is the next columns to the right of the previous ENSO events section. Only 39 years feature here of course as we don't know how 2023 will pan out yet but of these 39 years with January to March PDO's averaging at or below -1.000, 22 of the 39 years went either back into or into a La Nina event, 9 went on to be neutral and 8 El Nino's. Breaking it down for the years that went to El Nino which is the prediction for this year 3 were weak, 3 moderate and 2 strong events but of important note here is that there are NO SUPER NINO EVENTS following any year that has an average Jan to March PDO value of -1.000 or lower. There is however bad news for coldies that the El Nino's favour EP events over CP ones by 4 to 2 with basin wide just 1 of the 7 EL Nino years. Winter CET's of the above years When looking at what all of this means for the winter CET's the results very much come out close to average for all of the months with only small variations between them. Only a very weak cold signal for Januaries, weakly milder than average in the Februaries with Decembers basically average. January to March average PDO's between -1.500 and -2.000 To make things more relevant to this year I have removed all the years except for the -1.500 to -2.000 ones to make things more relevant to this year with the average -1.750 PDO value average from Jan to March 2023. As with the previous wider set most previous ENSO years are La Nina events again and of the other years they are mainly neutral with just 1 El Nino year featured. How does this more relevant narrower range of years affect the ENSO outcomes for the following season. We see 7 of 12 years go into a La Nina so in theory 2023 has a 58.333% chance of returning a 4th year Nina in a row with neutral making up 3 of the 12 year or 25.000% and El Nino just 2 of the 12 at 16.667% so the odds are stacked against an El Nino for 2023 based on these figures. Focusing on the 2 El Nino years we have 2009 and 1972 with one moderate CP event and a strong EP event. I know which of those 2 years I would rather pick as winter 1972/73 was generally mild whilst 2009/10 was colder. Winter CET's of the more relevant years above It would seem getting this more relevant selection of years is good news for coldies as it has pushed the CET anomaly values in a colder direction, especially for Decembers which are now -0.53C below normal with a less cold signal for Januaries. The Februaries do have a slight milder signal but the colder December signal means the overall winter signal is colder than the first wider selection of years. Keeping just the Moderate and Weak La Nina as well as neutral cold previous ENSO years from the above section To make things even more relevant I have narrowed the list down now to Mod and weak La Nina as well as cold neutral the previous season combined with Jan to Mar PDO average values between -1.500 and -2.000 and this leaves just 8 years in total as shown below. Still odds on for us to return to a La Nina with 4 of the 8 years doing so but we do see 1 neutral year as well as those 2 El Nino years that were in the previous section. The main thing of note is now there are NO SUPER NINO's in sight here and if we do go to El Nino it seems we have at least a 50% chance of a colder than average winter but it looks like we need to at least get the event to a CP one rather than an EP one and it looks like moderate/strong is the most likely El Nino outcome. Winter CET's based on the 8 years above It seems that the odds have moved just a bit further in the direction of a colder than average winter with an even colder December signal and with the mild February signal very much eliminated then a mid winter looks unlikely based on the average anomalies of the years bit there are some milder winters in there (1873/74, 1882/83 and 1972/73) which are basically slightly outdone by the colder years (1950/51, 2009/10 and 2012/13) with 2022/23 very much the average outlier. Summary Due to the 5 years that fail to get to El Nino or event stay at or return to La Nina I would personally favour a moderate event over a strong one and wouldn't rule out the possibility we end up with just a weak El Nino in the end, probably near the +1C anomaly mark which could threaten the possibility that we do end up with a moderate event in the end. As for CP vs EP it is very much up for debate here with what looks like a 50/50 chance on the odds. However these predictions of some monster Super EP event look to be sensational headline grabbing events to get the viewers and readers in and they are based on the very warm NINO 1+2 anomalies at present and like in many years this happens they get warm around this time of year then cool down during the summer to some degree if the event end up EP and even more so if we end up going CP.

January 2014 - Mild Washout, say no more February 2020 - More Mild washout, A theme starting here March 2022 - Yet More Mild washout. Only saved a little bit by the tiny bit of snow at the end of the month. April 2012 - More Washout but at least not that mild. I think you can tell I don't like mild washout months in the colder part of the year. May 2013 - A cool and unsettled month and such a disappointment at the time of year I want it to be warm June 2021 - A poor summer month after some better Junes before it and even the following one in 2022 was better. July 2011 - A poor summer month overall and part of a poor summer in general August 2018 - A let down after that decent weather in May to July 2018. 2014 also a candidate here for that excessive cool weather but already used for January September 2017 - A bland and boring month as far as I can remember. October 2016 - Was the only year left and not very memorable. Must have been bad or boring. November 2019 - Washout December 2015 - Freakishly mild and wet, Enough said

My best months or my best attempt at these considering the rules January 2015 - Would have gone for 2010 if I could but of the choices available I would have gone for 2013 as it was the coldest and snowiest available. 2015 was the only other "good" pick here mostly for the cold zonality at the end of the month and the thundersnow showers I got. February 2021 - Would have preferred 2018 here but have already picked that for May. Feb 2021 was a nice month of contrasts with the cold snowy weather early on followed by dry but milder weather later on. 2019 was also a year to consider here but used this for the September. March 2013 - Absolute slam dunk here and the number 1 choice for me, March 2013 without a doubt due to the extended cold, snow and winter showing what a cold and snow fan I am. 2018 was also a March to consider but 2013 was better in my opinion. April 2020 - Was a toss up between 2020 and 2021 here. Either 2020 for the dry and warm weather and sunshine or 2021 for dry and sunny but cold with a lot of frost and some snow. As 2021 had already been picked then 2020 was the choice left. May 2018 - May 2018 or May 2020 here and as 2020 is used for April then 2018 is the choice made here. Was a decent month of weather that started off the 2018 drought with some summer like warmth that was a sign of things to come. Did miss out on the thunderstorms late in the month however. June 2017 - June 2017 without a doubt. Was really the best June between 2011 and 2022 for warmth. July 2014 - July 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022 were the options here. 2013 already picked for March, 2018 picked for May and as 40C heat was a bit too much for me I went for 2014 here. A decent warm and humid month with several thundery episodes, perfect. August 2022 - August 2022, no questions, no other options for me to consider. The most decent August of the whole bunch but 2020 was the other option I had. September 2019 - Had to be either 2019 or 2016 here for extended summer warmth. Picked 2019 as I saved 2016 for November for a different reason. October 2011 - October 2011 for the nice heatwave at the start of the month. Did also consider 2017 here due to that strange event on the 16th with the red sun and yellow/brown sky which was a real highlight of that month. November 2016 - Was one of 2 years left, either 2019 or 2016 and went for 2016 as 2019 was a horrible November month. Not very memorable but was looking forward to a more seasonable winter after the horror show the year before. Would have gone for 2010 if it was an option. December 2012 - Wanted to pick 2022 here due to that decent cold frosty spell but the lack of snow was disappointing so ended up going for 2012 here. December 2012 was not overly cold but it did have teasers to what was to come during January to March 2013 and it did at least have a cold start to the month. My ideal year using the same years if I could repeat years for months January 2013 - Cold with some snow February 2018 - For the cold weather and especially the beast from the east March 2013 - Cold with some snow April 2021 - Cold and sunny with frosts and some snow May 2018 - Warm and sunny June 2018 - Warm and sunny July 2018 - Warm and sunny August 2022 - Warm and sunny September 2016 - Warm and sunny October 2011 - For that heat at the start of the month November 2021 - Just for some variety December 2022 - Cold and frosty spell