SqueakheartLW

Where did you get these charts from exactly?

Just wanted to show 500mb analysis charts of Nino events between winters of 1870/71 and 1947/48 and how they compare with the more modern averages I showed before to see if the outcomes are similar or much different. Make what you want out of these charts. Weak El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48 Weak El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23 Almost a carbon copy here for weak El Nino winters with a block to our NW and a Euro trough. Not as good as moderate El Nino's for blocking but clearly a similar pattern can be seen for all weak El Nino winters. Moderate El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48 Moderate El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23 A number of winters to go on here and there's a fair amount of similarity with the pattern for moderate El Nino winters both pre 1948 and post 1948. All feature northern blocking with troughing through Europe. Seems to be a cold signal all round with moderate El Nino's. Strong El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48 Strong El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23 Another example where only 1 strong El Nino took place pre 1948. Has a similar outcome to the super Nino winter of 1877/78 and another high pressure borefest. Super El Nino winters 1870/71 - 1947/48 Super El Nino winters 1948/49 - 2022/23 Only 1 example to go on for super Nino's pre 1948 so not a lot can be read into this but winter 1877/78 looked to be a bit of a high pressure borefest looking at that.

Strong El Nino winters tend to produce a UK high pressure anomaly on the analysis charts so nearest to cold is maybe overnight frosts and Super Nino usually means mild and zonal although February 1983 was cold under a super Nino. Moderate El Nino is the best shot for cold and if all else fails a weak CP one maybe. As with all El Nino's the CP ones are a better shot at cold. No idea what a Super CP El Nino would do as there's none in the record at all and that would be a recorded historical first if it were to happen. Weak El Nino Moderate El Nino Strong El Nino Super El Nino

No idea but at least tropical tidbits give daily readings which I have a record of going back right up to November 2020 when I thought I would take them down. Have seen how this El Nino has developed throughout the year day by day and how annoyingly so far it has been very EP based.

Only time will tell LOL If my other analysis regarding the EQBO and ENSO proves true then the CP one could verify but there were far more EP outcomes in the list than CP ones unfortunately

El Nino predictions based on historical events and current anomalies Recent July 2023 data Date Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 10th 0.7 1.0 1.5 3.3 17th 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.4 24th 0.8 1.1 1.7 3.5 July predictions based on above Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 AV 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.4 Scenario 1 - EP event First we have all of the El Nino events that were at El Nino status in July's which were least warm in NINO 4 and warmest in NINO 1+2, really like July 2023 will very likely turn out that then went on to become EP events Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 PEAK Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Type July 1902 0.57 1.44 1.52 1.64 Nov 1902 0.62 1.54 1.63 1.57 Mod EP July 1905 0.58 0.82 0.80 1.12 Sep 1905 0.92 1.42 1.38 0.83 Mod EP July 1930 0.22 0.64 0.77 0.76 Nov 1930 0.80 1.79 1.81 1.45 Mod EP July 1951 -0.03 0.66 1.14 2.20 Aug 1951 0.14 0.90 1.26 1.61 Weak EP July 1972 0.30 0.83 1.33 2.66 Dec 1972 0.89 2.19 2.44 1.91 Strong EP July 1997 0.70 1.70 2.39 3.99 Dec 1997 0.83 2.69 3.62 4.13 Super EP July 2015 1.00 1.60 2.17 2.87 Nov 2015 1.67 2.95 2.93 2.24 Super EP Predicting 2023 El Nino based on above if we end up with EP event NINO 4 - We are currently closest to 1997's July NINO 4 of +0.70C so NINO 4 at peak has a good chance of ending up between +0.70C and +1.00C NINO 3.4 - We are currently between 1902, 1905 and 1972 at +1.10C. Using the peak 3.4 values of these years of +1.54C, +1.42C and +2.19C the predicted NINO 3.4 value will likely be between +1.52C and +1.92C with a mid point of +1.72C NINO 3 - We are currently slightly above July 1902's value of +1.52C by 0.08C. No other year is particularly close so using this the projected NINO 3 peak value should be between +1.51C and +1.91C with the mid point of +1.71C NINO 1+2 - We are currently close to halfway between 1997's value of +3.99C and 2015's value of +2.87C. Using these 2 years the projected NINO 1+2 peak should be between +2.89C and 3.49C with a mid point value of +3.19C Scenario 2 - Shift to CP event Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 PEAK Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Type July 1925 -0.04 0.50 0.82 0.94 Dec 1925 0.76 1.60 1.51 1.19 Mod CP July 1957 0.08 0.69 1.19 2.14 Jan 1958 1.07 1.54 1.19 0.73 Mod CP July 1965 0.07 0.81 0.94 1.72 Oct 1965 0.59 1.61 1.37 0.80 Mod CP July 2009 0.40 0.72 0.94 1.02 Dec 2009 1.18 1.72 1.53 0.35 Mod CP Predicting 2023 El Nino based on above if we do switch to CP event NINO 4 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 4 value of +0.70C is well above any of these years featured. The closest one however is 2009. The projected peak NINO 4 based on this and the extra warmth of 2023 will likely be between 1.18C and 1.58C with a mid point of +1.38C NINO 3.4 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 3.4 value is closest to 1965's value and like NINO 4 is warmer than this one still. Factoring this in the projected NINO 3.4 peak will likely be between +1.61C and +2.01C with a mid point of +1.81C NINO 3 - Our predicted July 2023 NINO 3 value is way above any of the years featured here but is closest to 1957's value. With the margin of warmth here NINO 3 should peak somewhere between +1.39C and +1.79C with a mid point of +1.59C NINO 1+2 - Our NINO 1+2 value for July 2023 is way warmer than any of these years featured but is closest to 1957. Using the margin of warmth as well as how the event turns to CP then the projected NINO 1+2 value at the NINO 3.4 peak should be somewhere between +0.93C and +1.53C with a mid point of +1.23C Conclusions Scenario 1 prediction - EP event If our current event ends up EP then projected anomalies at peak Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 PRED PEAK Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Type July 2023 0.70 1.10 1.60 3.40 Nov 2023 ? 0.85 1.72 1.71 3.19 Mod/Str EP This very likely showing a moderate to possibly strong EP El Nino event most likely around November 2023. Scenario 2 prediction - CP event If our current event ends up CP then projected anomalies at peak Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 PRED PEAK Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Type July 2023 0.70 1.10 1.60 3.40 Nov 2023 ? 1.38 1.81 1.59 1.23 Strong CP This very likely showing a strong CP El Nino event most likely around November 2023. Think they are from this PDF that updates every week https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Tropical tidbits has been running a little less warm in all 4 NINO regions than this PDF is showing

This is what happens the year after a good summer typically. You rarely get 2 decent summers in a row. After last year the omens for this year were never going to be particularly good. The dry June was really a false signal that we were going to get another dry and sunny repeat. Although if you live in eastern parts of England like me only the last 3rd of June was decent in any way with lots of sunshine. The first 2/3rds was dominated by chilly easterlies and on many occasions North Sea low cloud and filth. Although June 2023 goes down as a top 5 month on the mean CET it masks the true story of how west was warmer, sunnier and the best half of the UK and the east was cooler and cloudier. So far for me summer 2023 has been a bit meh. Had more thunderstorms this year than the last few but that has been the only main highlight so far and this July has to be up there with the worst of them, although not as chilly as some of the others and warmer than 1993 for definite.

Added some more QBO vs ENSO information and data for everyone to read here. Have been looking to see if there is indeed any link between the QBO leading up to the winter as well as the ENSO status as well as position in the Pacific. Firstly I have a list of all of the ENSO events from 1954 onwards in order of strength from strongest El Nino's right down to strongest La Nina's with the QBO direction and strength in the autumn preceding the winter. A whole mixture here with a range of QBO directions and strengths throughout the list but I did a closer look at specific categories to see if there is any link. Average QBO speed under each ENSO status This was a general blanket assessment under El Nino, Neutral and La Nina. The result is below. What is of immediate interest here is how the more we head in the direction of El Nino the more likely we are to be more WQBO influenced with a less negative number and as we head in the direction of La Nina we are slightly more EQBO biased. This tells little but does hint that: EQBO fights against El Nino EQBO favours La Nina WQBO favours El Nino WQBO fights against La Nina Average QBO speed under specific El Nino's and La Nina's Now for something a bit more specific and should show up any further links. How does each El Nino type and La Nina type link up with the QBO What is immediately obvious here is how both CP El Nino and EP La Nina are more likely with an EQBO in place whilst EP El Nino and CP La Nina are more likely with WQBO. This tells us a bit more now and hints EQBO favours both CP El Nino and EP La Nina EQBO fights against EP El Nino and CP La Nina WQBO favours EP El Nino and CP La Nina WQBO fights against CP El Nino and EP La Nina Average QBO speed under each specific El Nino type Now for the most relevant for 2023 as El Nino looks all but certain now. Which El Nino type and QBO speed and direction go together. The result is below. The most immediate obvious thing here is how in general CP events go with EQBO and EP events with WQBO. The strong EP and CP events are based on very few El Nino's so might not be that representative but the rest have enough events to go on.

Do wonder if there is a link between the EQBO and CP El Nino's. Take a look at 2009 and 2010 as the example What starts off as an initial what looks like a developing EP El Nino during the spring and early summer of 2009 happens whilst still under the WQBO but almost as soon as the EQBO begins the anomalies start warming further west in the Pacific and as the EQBO strengthens the warmest anomalies shift away from the east and into more central and western parts of the Pacific. It can also be seen how winter 2010/11 went to pieces after the cold December. The strong La Nina as well as WQBO probably acted together to finish off the cold after December 2010.

July's at least 1C cooler than June in same year Year June CET July CET Difference 1676 18.0C 16.0C -2.0C 1858 16.8C 14.8C -2.0C 1846 18.2C 16.5C -1.7C 1822 17.1C 15.6C -1.5C 1940 16.4C 15.1C -1.3C 1970 16.4C 15.2C -1.2C 1786 16.1C 15.0C -1.1C 1672 16.0C 15.0C -1.0C 1817 15.1C 14.1C -1.0C 1960 16.1C 15.1C -1.0C July's cooler than Junes by 0.1C to 0.9C Year June CET July CET Difference 1842 15.6C 14.5C -0.9C 1743 15.6C 14.9C -0.7C 1755 15.7C 15.0C -0.7C 1965 14.7C 14.0C -0.7C 1798 16.9C 16.3C -0.6C 1845 14.9C 14.3C -0.6C 1683 16.0C 15.5C -0.5C 1685 14.5C 14.0C -0.5C 1877 15.2C 14.7C -0.5C 1910 14.7C 14.2C -0.5C 1726 16.4C 16.0C -0.4C 1758 14.6C 14.2C -0.4C 1919 14.3C 13.9C -0.4C 1966 15.4C 15.0C -0.4C 1724 15.3C 15.0C -0.3C 1840 14.1C 13.8C -0.3C 1920 14.4C 14.1C -0.3C 1950 16.2C 15.9C -0.3C 1802 13.7C 13.5C -0.2C 1804 16.1C 15.9C -0.2C 1922 13.8C 13.7C -0.1C 1930 15.3C 15.2C -0.1C

QBO https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data - This QBO data goes back to 1948 ENSO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices - More modern ENSO data back to 1982 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino4.long.anom.data - NINO 4 back to 1870 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data - NINO 3.4 back to 1870 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino3.long.anom.data - NINO 3 back to 1870 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data - NINO 1+2 back to 1870 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/ - A useful website with lots of data series on it. This is also where the ENSO data from 1870 to current times is also found.

Not seen a combination of Super Nino and EQBO. No idea about the 1877/78 event as there's no record of the QBO that far back but we can go by the 3 most recent super Nino events. 1982/83 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1982 -12.52 -14.71 -16.67 -15.55 -15.26 -15.94 -8.95 -1.58 +4.21 +8.27 +9.51 +10.35 1983 +10.85 +11.40 +12.17 +13.81 +11.93 +3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42 Turned to WQBO before the winter so winter 1982/83 Super Nino and WQBO influenced 1997/98 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1997 -3.57 +1.94 +4.77 +9.74 +12.37 +14.50 +14.85 +11.69 +11.64 +9.91 +5.74 +0.78 1998 -0.85 -2.96 -4.92 -7.82 -14.08 -18.57 -22.97 -24.70 -22.12 -18.77 -12.22 -3.96 WQBO for most of 1997 before transitioning to weak EQBO by mid to late winter 1997/98. Too late to influence the season so very much Super Nino and WQBO driven again. 2015/16 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.33 +2.18 +7.45 +10.97 +12.07 +13.38 +12.79 +11.39 2016 +9.34 +6.77 +3.16 +0.64 +2.37 +3.86 +6.25 +10.07 +10.48 +12.83 +14.16 +15.09 Transition from EQBO to WQBO during mid 2015. Strong WQBO by winter 2015/16 so yet another Super Nino and WQBO combination. No idea what effect a Super Nino combined with EQBO will have as there's no recorded incident of this type so a total unknown. Maybe EQBO could either help create a new Super Nino which is modoki (CP) based instead or it will fight against the Nino, resulting in a more moderate event in the end.

NINO 1+2 at or above 2.0C in June and eventual ENSO outcome later in the year Another experimental assessment of mine for past events after seeing the latest NINO region anomalies and those rather ominous Region 1+2 figures that are just taking off at the moment made me wonder if any other years did this and what the eventual outcome of ENSO was later in the year. The result is below and includes where 2023 stands in comparison to the other events. Year Warmest NINO 1+2 in June NINO 3 in same June Eventual late autumn/winter ENSO outcome 1997 +3.45C +1.71C Super El Nino EP 2023 +2.63C +1.21C ??????? 2015 +2.54C +1.66C Super El Nino EP 1957 +2.25C +0.90C Moderate El Nino CP 1972 +2.25C +0.93C Strong El Nino EP 1918 +2.02C +0.80C Moderate El Nino EP If we want to avoid a super Nino then the figures for 2023 at present look rather grim indeed as our June NINO 1+2 figure us right up there with the super Nino years of 1997 and 2015 and with some insane NINO 1+2 figures developing during July 2023 with the latest +3.4C figure and NINO 3 currently at +1.6C it isn't looking very promising at all and these figures are very much up with the warmest anomalies of past El Nino events that went on to become strong or super. The only thing that we can cling onto here is that the June 2023 NINO 3 anomaly was less warm than both 1997 and 2015 although due to being above the moderate and strong years it doesn't remove the possibility of another super event. Also unfortunately it seems EP events are heavily favoured in this kind of setup as well with a 80% chance of EP El Nino.

Definitely not going to be a record breaker in terms of the mean CET if current form continues. At the start of July we were ahead of some of the top 10 July's in terms of the mean rolling CET but as the month has gone on we have fallen down the top 10 then off the bottom of this list. The current state of this July vs the top 10 warmest July's is below. Negative anomalies show 2023 below that particular July at this stage, positive ones above. As can be seen July 2023 is now over a degree below the 10th placed July at this stage and this gap has steadily grown over the last few days and the way things are going it looks like we're going to finish well short of the top 10. A different story entirely when looking at the summer as a whole so far including the June as well. The summer rating is as shown. Despite the poor July so far we are still well within the top 10 in terms of summer as a whole up to this stage which means even if July finishes around average we are still well placed to get a top 10 summer. A decent August should seal that deal but if we go on to have a poor August too then a top 10 finish will be in serious doubt.

Think the best weather was in the south in March 2022. Unsettled further north with the short Arctic snap the only real highlight of the month.

June 2023 region 3.4 anomaly of +0.88C for NOAA and +0.78C for tropical tidbits giving an average of +0.73C Just for a bit of fun I have decided to look for ENSO events following a June region 3.4 anomaly between +0.53C and +1.13C to see how these events progressed onto an El Nino, if they failed or even went back to a La Nina later on in the year. The result is below June Month Region 3.4 Anomaly Peak Month Region 3.4 anomaly ENSO Strength and position June 1877 +0.98C December 1877 +2.49C Super El Nino EP June 1982 +1.10C January 1983 +2.79C Super El Nino EP June 1972 +0.66C December 1972 +2.19C Strong El Nino EP June 1991 +0.71C February 1992 +1.91C Strong El Nino CP June 1902 +0.77C November 1902 +1.54C Moderate El Nino EP June 1905 +0.59C September 1905 +1.42C Moderate El Nino CP June 1940 +0.55C March 1941 +1.41C Moderate El Nino CP June 1957 +0.53C January 1958 +1.54C Moderate El Nino CP June 2002 +0.78C November 2002 +1.62C Moderate El Nino CP June 1941 +0.88C December 1941 +1.27C Weak El Nino EP June 1900 +0.76C ENSO Neutral Warmer N/A June 1919 +0.61C ENSO Neutral Warmer N/A June 2019 +0.59C ENSO Neutral Warmer N/A June 1915 +1.10C ENSO Neutral Neutral N/A June 1926 +0.61C ENSO Neutral Neutral N/A June 1993 +0.63C ENSO Neutral Neutral N/A June 1878 +0.92C ENSO Neutral Colder N/A June 2017 +0.55C February 2018 -0.90C Weak La Nina EP Of immediate note here is how most years went on to produce an El Nino which shows if you have weak El Nino status by June then there's a high probability that the later stages of the year will be El Nino unless coming off the back of a previous event. 10 of 18 went on to El Nino, 7 of 18 back to neutral and only 1 event went on to La Nina. In focusing more on the 10 specific El Nino years it seems moderate or stronger is favoured with only 1 weak event shown but with moderate showing 5 of the 10 then this looks the clear favourite outcome. When coming to EP or CP it appears we have a definite 50/50 split here so this is very much a random chance and still up for grabs.

Post 2010 bogeyman years Overall year 2015 Not too bad winter to open up the year with a little snow late Jan, early Feb, the only real "highlight" of the year Spring was non descript Summer was poor overall with a 1 day heat spike the only highlight really and the single overnight thunder event 2 days later. Autumn was chilly at times but nothing special Horror show December Bogeyman year by months January 2020 - (2014 also a contender too) I picked January 2020 as it was a zonal washout and 2014 was a contender but the little bit of wet snow on 30th January 2014 saved this one from my bogeyman month pick. February 2020 - Hands down the worst one of all. The wettest February I can remember in my entire life, a mild zonal fest. Even the very brief wet snow on the 27th couldn't save this month from the bogeyman selection. March 2022 - A poor month overall with wet weather dominating. Could have picked 2023 here but for me 2022 was worse as the snow event in 2022 was less good than the 2023 one. April 2012 - Hand down April 2012 gets the bogeyman label here, a total washout and a month to forget. May 2021 - A cool and miserable month overall, even the brief shot of heat at the end doesn't save this month from the bogeyman label. June 2012 - A poor June overall and a wet one too, hope never to be repeated again. July 2015 - (2023 looking to be a possible contender too at the current rate, 2020 was also another here) July 2015 for me was a poor month overall and wet. Even the 1 day heat spike and the thunder on the night of the 3rd couldn't save this month. August 2017 - Probably the worst of the Augusts between 2010 and 2022 although there are many poor Augusts to choose from (2014 the nearest contender to this one). September 2015 - A cool September which after a poor summer made sure this month qualified as the bogeyman month of my bogeyman year post 2010. October 2019 - A washout month and the first of a string of washout months that saw in winter 2019/20. November 2015 - A mild horror show month but not as horrifically mild as the one that follows it. December 2015 - December 2015 sticks out like a sore thumb here as a bogeyman month. The mildest December on record by a clear mile. Hope to never see anything like it again. If we ever got a year with the above months as a selection, what a horror show year it would be.

A rather poor 2m temp chart for the GFS for my location Only get 3 days above 20C here on the mean as maxes out of 16 days, very poor for July it has to be said. GEM fares better though 6 days of the 16 here get above 20C but that is still a rather poor rating as well

Don't know why models keep insisting on a strong or super Nino then. The way this is going we may be already close to the peak of the event and we may stabilise around the +1 to +1.5C range

Couldn't be a bigger contrast this July compared with a year ago at this stage. At this point it was the big build up to the 2 days of extreme heat and the 40C day and all of those 40C charts showing up and how I thought they were overdoing it and we'd end up staying in the 30C's Never thought we'd actually do it until the day itself however. Compare that with this July which despite the unsettled and cooler theme we have still managed to get over 30C but no sign of any heatwaves. Not looking like we'll get any higher than a 16C CET month and that may be pushing it still if things remain cool and unsettled.

Looking like the Netweather July 2023 forecast is going pear shaped. The warmest month of the summer with temps at least 2C above the 1981-2010 average was what I thought it said. So far a long way out unless we see a heatwave for the 2nd half of the month but models show no sign of any heatwave in the UK.

They are probably reacting to the over estimating ECM ENSO forecast that came out earlier this month. It was going for a Super Nino to start next month but so far there has been little warming during this month and it would take something unusual and extreme to reach Super Nino in region 3.4 by next month. I would guess we will be borderline moderate at most this month and probably more definite moderate next month with moderate to strong the most likely NIno 3.4 peak around November 2023. Whether we get EP event or a CP event is still up for grabs. CP would be better for a colder winter of course.

Do you think 2023 will follow the same pattern. After all since July began we have turned cooler and wetter

How about autumn 2000. A total washout 2002 in general was poor or boring June 1997 - washout Winter 2013/14 and as mentioned above Sep 2019 to Feb 2020 Nov 2009 - washout (following winter made up for this though) Aug 2008 - dull

I would definitely say 2013 for the reverse of 1993. January to June generally at or below average. July to December generally at or above.