SqueakheartLW

After just 5 days of the month on the provisional CET September 2023 is already ranking ahead of all of the top 10 Septembers on the CET record between 1772 and 2022 as shown in the table below. Positive anomalies show 2023 ranking warmer than the year whilst negative ones show 2023 cooler. As can be seen we are already above all of these Septembers. Below we have how 2023 is comparing to these top 10 Septembers day by day. The top 5 rows already have the provisional CET values on the left highlighted in yellow. Below this I have included the average GFS, ECM and GEM 2m temp mean mins and maxes averaged for each day across all 3 models and this predicted CET value is a mean of all 3 models put together. It has predicted a CET mean daily value for today (6th) of 20.1C. I feel this could be a slight underestimate however and the high running means around the 10th to 12th over 20C could end up even higher when we do get to these. The other notable thing here is how far 2023 is predicted to get ahead of the top 10 Septembers if the models prove correct. However we start falling back towards the top 10 by the 21st but still have a rolling value of 17.710C if these models runs are spot on.

The first one was I think on the 1st or 2nd. I replied to it and it should be in my comment history LOL. It's so funny when they do it on the first day of September. Wonder when we'll have "winter is over" posts in August?

Not looking good if this warm September / mild winter theory holds true yet again but imagine the irony if this very warm start to the month results in our first ever 17C CET September or even the possible chance that September ends up warmer than June 2023 and ends up the warmest month of 2023.

Like that deep blue over the NE Pacific. Makes a change to the dreaded red blob we have got used to seeing on the winter output. The -NAO signature looks good here and at least it looks like it isn't west based. Its also clear to see the EP El Nino signature here with the blues in the eastern tropical Pacific and the oranges over the western Pacific and Indonesia.

I would agree with this one. Anything before mid December is usually a continuation of the late autumn pattern and if this contained northerlies or easterlies then you might get an early taste of cold in early December. 2021 is a good example with that very early December northerly snap but that was as good as we got and the rest of the winter was mild. 2010 is the most extreme recent example of cold late autumn which on this occasion went right through to after Christmas. The true pattern of the winter finally set in into 2011. 2000 and 2009 were examples of the opposite with the mild theme from autumn continuing on into December before around mid month the true pattern of each winter emerging. 2000/01 went on to be on the slightly colder side of average with several colder spells with average or above average periods between them. 2009/10 was a colder version of 2000/01 but surprisingly for me I saw more snow from 2000/01 than 2009/10 despite the latter being a colder winter.

BIN IT LOL Its the CFS after all Not looking as good as it did but we still have time for things to change yet

You know when the real countdown to winter begins when you see the winter updates from Gav starting up

What would be of interest is how this anomaly chart compares with summer 2009

Think we already know that nothing on the CFS ever verifies LOL

A relatively modest bar to exceed from September 2022 so I wouldn't be too surprised to see this value rise again next month

Oh look, our first "winters over" comment at the start of September LOL

We can blame the warm to hot start predicted to September on this ex hurricane merging with the trough to our west and pulling the low near Portugal north turning our winds into the south and giving us the very warm to hot start. Just think if this one ex hurricane is all it takes to give us a warm September and the chance that winter will be off already, surely not something else to ruin winter

Maybe the CFS doing the opposite means this time around the dream charts will arrive come December when we want to see them

LOL We do indeed wait with abated breath from @blizzard81 don't we?

You would never have thought that the cold was about to strike looking at these charts from 5th to 9th December 2009 All looks like locked in zonal and SW winds here and at this point it looks like December 2009 is written off for cold. Then the first and important change shows itself between 10th and 12th December 2009 We start to see the first important change here with the cold uppers moving across the continent ready for what is about to happen. Between 13th and 16th December 2009 we see the high start to pull further to our north ready to unleash the cold onto the UK All the while this is happening even colder uppers are pushing in from the east ready to be unleashed on the 17th onwards. The rest of the month is basically colder than average after this with an Arctic shot before Christmas before the coldest weather early in the new year.

I wouldn't totally rule out a cold or very cold winter. They appear to occur approximately 60 to 65 years apart or thereabouts. This winter will be 61 years since 1962/63 so very much in the perfect range for a cold or very cold winter. Cold or very cold winters Winter December CET (Anom) January CET (Anom) February CET (Anom) 1697/98 2.50C (-1.50C) 0.00C (-2.41C) 0.50C (-2.46C) 1765/66 1.70C (-2.22C) 0.70C (-1.67C) 1.70C (-1.96C) 1837/38 5.30C (+0.84C) -1.50C (-4.11C) 0.40C (-3.54C) 1894/95 5.10C (+1.13C) 0.20C (-3.29C) -1.80C (-5.68C) 1962/63 1.80C (-2.92C) -2.10C (-5.66C) -0.70C (-4.40C) 2023/24 ????? Cold Decembers I've also noticed a 60 year pattern for very cold Decembers 1830 1.80C (-2.21C) 1890 -0.80C (-4.48C) 1950 1.20C (-3.66C) 2010 -0.70C (-5.67C)

Wait for the 2009 trend to break come mid December 2023 LOL

Wonder if we are due a September 2009 repeat. Seems coincidental that an area of high pressure is moving in over the top of the UK just in time for the start of the month and as we know September 2009 was high pressure dominated with next to no rain over most of the UK for that entire month. Maybe getting my hopes up too much here for another 2009/10 redux, only as long as we don't see a November 2009 repeat, what a washout that was.

The late 1990's and early 2000's winters were a bit hit and miss and generally quite localised in who did well out of them. As for my location: 1997/98 - Apart from the brief transitional snow event mid December 1997 the rest of this winter was poor for snow except for January 19th with a northerly toppler that gave some snow showers. April 1998 was also good around Easter. 1998/99 - Although a milder than average winter it was actually quite good for snow in my location with at least 5 separate snow events or showers and in general Scotland and areas of England bordering the east coast did quite well off the various Arctic northerlies that winter. 1999/00 - Probably the worst of the late 1990's / early 2000's winters for my location. Saw even less snow than in either 1997/98 and 2001/02. What little snow I saw was all between 13th and 21st December 1999. 2000/01 - For me this was the snowiest of the late 1990's / early 2000's winters. The Christmas to New Year cold spell was the best one of the winter with the late Feb / early March one a close 2nd. Did better off the late December 2000 cold spell compared with the late December 2001 one. 2001/02 - A winter that could have been better. Only late December 2001 was any good for snow. The 22nd and 30th December were the 2 main snow days in my location. Another very brief band of snow paid a visit late in Feb 2002. 2002/03 - Better than 2001/02 and 2003/04 for snow but generally focused on early and late Jan 2003 as well as early Feb 2003. The late Jan 2003 northerly toppler gave quite a covering of snow in my location. 2003/04 - This was a winter which in my opinion was a let down when the cold shots arrived. Got very little off the December northerly or the February one. The January one was better and this winter did manage to give me falling snow in December through to March too. Rating the above for me from best to worst for snow 2000/01 1998/99 2002/03 2003/04 2001/02 1997/98 1999/00 2008/09 to 2010/11 As for this trio of colder winters the single biggest dump of snow in my location came from a convergence zone overnight 30th November to 1st December 2010 with over 40cm of snow which added to existing cover from 25th November 2010 which then stuck around right until early January 2011. Didn't do badly from January 2010 event either with over 5cm of snow that stuck around for over a week. December 2009 was a let down however with all the snow both to our north and south with my location in sunshine. February 2009 wasn't too bad either with my location on the colder side of several frontal events that pushed northwards into the colder air. I would however rate all 3 of these winters more highly than any of the late 1990's to early 2000's winters.

Hope it isn't as positive as 2019. Maybe we can get away with it if it isn't too positive. 2023 2019 Looks more positive at this stage in 2019 to me.

September 2015 was colder than average and we all know what happened when December arrived MILDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD BY A BIG MARGIN

Remember the important months are in the winter. We can have a mild autumn then a cold winter. Didn't 2005 have a mild autumn followed by a colder than average winter?

Historically in regards to solar min the even to odd cycle minimum is not great for coldies but the odd to even one is quite good. Think of how the coldest winters are typically around 22 years apart and tend to mostly cluster in the descending odd and ascending even parts of the cycle with around and just after the odd to even minimum the greatest chance of cold. Descending Solar Cycle 24 to Ascending Solar Cycle 25 (Even to Odd) - 2014 to now (Min 2019) Not great for coldies. Minimum year 2019/20 was mild and wet, 2021/22 was mild and 2022/23 was also mild but not as much as 2021/22. Only 2020/21 was close to anything resembling cold at times and December 2022 to an extent as well Descending Solar Cycle 23 to Ascending Solar Cycle 24 (Odd to Even) - 2003 to 2014 (Min 2008) Winters 2008/09 to 2012/13 - Mostly 2008/09 to 2010/11 as I think the colder winter of 2012/13 was mostly due to the SSW. 2011/12 was the exception here but even that featured some decent cold in early February 2012. Descending Solar Cycle 22 to Ascending Solar Cycle 23 (Even to Odd) - 1989 to 2003 (Min 1996) This one was slightly better than the 24 to 25 cycle minimum with 1995/96 the best winter in this minimum period. 1996/97 was good for a time but mostly early in the winter. Descending Solar Cycle 21 to Ascending Solar Cycle 22 (Odd to Even) - 1979 to 1989 (Min 1986) A few colder winters all clustered around the period 1984 to 1987 with 1983/84 cold zonality, 1984.85 a classic cold winter, 1985/96 a back loaded cold winter and 1986/87 featuring the very cold January 1987 spell. Descending Solar Cycle 20 to Ascending Solar Cycle 21 (Even to Odd) - 1968 to 1979 (Min 1976) Not known for anything spectacularly cold although it does feature a solar max cold winter in 1978/79 which seems unusual. Descending Solar Cycle 19 to Ascending Solar Cycle 20 (Odd to Even) - 1958 to 1968 (Min 1964) Some rather cold winters occurred during this particular descending odd/ ascending even phase with the best winter of them all 1962/63 included too. The pattern appears to continue on into the past as well with the cold 1940's winters also clustering around the same descending odd/ascending even phase again. Even the 1878 to 1880 cold winters were at the start of an even solar cycle 12 too.

Good news for those of us who want to avoid a Super Nino. It would seem CFS have dropped the idea recently. Early August forecast Mid August forecast Most recent forecast Now if this isn't good news for coldies then what will it take for the pieces to fall right for once.

Still on course for at least a strong event in 3.4 if this continues. Hope we can at least dodge super unless it can turn into a super CP event.