SqueakheartLW

Any of you remember me making this comment to the thread on the 9th Feb 2024 about potential top 10 mildest winter on record and suggested if we went ridiculously mild the record could be under threat but I categorically ruled it out as it looked almost impossible for us to beat the record. Well based on the latest updated data to this it is now looking increasingly likely that I could end up eating my words as my initial suggestion we would go ridiculously mild has come to pass. We only needed a CET mean of 9.0C between 9th and 29th Feb to beat the all time winter mildest mean record set in 2015/16 of 6.762C Our provisional values of 6.8, 8.1, 7.2, 5.5, 7.7, 9.5, 13.7, 10.1, 10.7, 12.0 and 9.7 for 9th to 19th average out at 9.182C which is slightly higher than the required 9.0C so far. This means we are currently very much on track to set a new mildest CET mean winter. The latest updated table is below and shows how 2023/24 has climbed up the list since my update on 9th Feb. 9th Feb table 20th Feb table vs It is clear to see how much we have moved up the top 10 provisionally and how much we have closed down on the top spot. We were -1.457C behind 2015/16 provisionally on 8th Feb. Now we are only -0.478C behind, a cutting of the gap by almost 1C in just 10 days. If we keep this up the record is easily going to be broken. An all time Feb mean looks under serious threat too but will the more average or cooler conditions from Friday onwards to see out the month see off the record threat both for Feb 2024 as well as the overall mildest winter record too.

sundog I my experience summers following an El Nino the previous winter generally don't do too well for prolonged dry or warm weather. Heat spikes maybe but in my experience the summers of these years are poor, especially if they switch rapidly to La Nina. 1995 seems to be the main exception to this rule. Summers following El Nino winters 1995 - Dry and warm to hot 1998 - Generally cooler and wetter 2004 - Mixed 2005 - Warm and dry 2007 - Total washout 2010 - Generally mixed 2015 - Mixed, wetter than average 2016 - Similar to 2015 but a bit better 2019 - Wet but with short heat spikes 2024 - ??????? (Based on above expecting a wetter than average summer with heat spikes the best chance of anything very warm to hot. If we rapidly transition to a notable La Nina then a 1998 or 2007 repeat could be on the cards)

summer blizzard Looks like this run is going for yet another warming at the end. Maybe this one will end up a final warming

Dec 1993 CET 5.5 White Christmas otherwise a mild month Jan 1999 CET 5.5 Widespread band of snow pushed NW to SE on 11th to 12th Feb 1999 CET 5.3 Almost qualifies but was generally a mild month but with cold and at times snowy week in 2nd week of month Jan 2008 CET 6.6 A bit of snow off an easterly early in the month and a brief northerly at the end of the month Feb 2020 CET 6.3 Mild and wet month but a brief spell of persistent snow at the end of the month Dec 2021 CET 6.4 Brief northerly gave some snow showers at the start of the month. Was about as good as that winter got. Rest was mild. Mar 2023 CET 7.0 Some snow between around 7th and 10th, otherwise a mild month

BlueSkies_do_I_see Warmest year for 2024 Maybe but as we are only in Feb it's far too early to say really but based on how the year is starting I wouldn't rule out yet another 11C CET mean year again. Depends if we maintain this ridiculous mild, warm or hot weather throughout the year or not or we do something similar to 2007 where we start well above average then fall away later in the year. Warmest winter for 2023/24 I think that may be a bit of a long shot now. The early Dec cold and the Jan cold spell I think have probably ruled out us beating the 2015/16 record of 6.762C now with us provisionally running at 6.313C up to 15th Feb and with only 14 more days of official winter to go it would take an average CET mean of 9.24C for the 16th to 29th to beat the previous 6.762C record by 0.001C Warmest Feb for Feb 2024 This one I feel has the best chance of falling since we are so close right now (Provisionally 8.147C up to 15th) and would only take a running mean of 7.64C for the 16th to 29th to beat the previous 7.9C record by 0.002C

Summer Sun Do note that 7.9C is equal to the mildest February on the CET record from 1779 which was 7.9C Is this seriously looking to be under threat this year as it currently looks that way

It isn't just how mild Feb 2024 has started but another thing of note is how mild the winter is overall. This is the latest snapshot of where winter 2023/24 stands compared with the top 10 mildest winters overall at this stage in the winter (8th Feb). At present after allowing for the couple of colder days we have just had we are just scraping into the top 10 at this stage, pushing 1989/90 out of the top 10. If we do indeed see mean CET's hovering in the 6C to 7C range for the rest of the month then a top 10 finish will almost be a certain done deal. If we go ridiculously mild again then could a new record mildest be a threat? If we averaged at 9C for the rest of the month we would set a new mildest winter on the CET by just 0.003C over 2015/16 but I can't see us getting an average of 9C for the rest of the month. The lowest value we can achieve whilst getting 10th mildest would need to be an average of 6.21C between 9th and 29th. Anything below this would see us fail to set a top 10.

damianslaw Depends which side of the country you were on for how good the snow was in 1996. It was great for you living in the west of the UK but over here in the east we only saw snow off the cold blast from the 19th. I did much better off the December and January snow events in winter 1995/96 and even got more in the March and April than I saw in the February.

Favourite Februaries My favourite Februaries from my remembered lifetime. First into a few categories then my top 3 overall below this. For snow For snow it has to be 1994, 1996, 2004, 2009 and 2018 for snowy months or decent snowy setups / events during these Februaries. 1st - 2009 for me was the snowiest of these in terms of snow events at least. 4 separate snow events on the 2nd, 5th, 8th and 12th with wintry / snow showers scattered in general between 1st and 13th. 2nd - 2018 was my favourite for the extreme nature of the BFTE but there was also another frontal snow event earlier in the same month too. 3rd- 1994 I recall had 2 frontal snow events as well as snow showers off an easterly too. 4th - 1996 for me had the cold early in the month and the short but potent cold blast from the NE on the 19th that gave whiteout conditions in blizzard like snow showers was amazing to experience. 5th - 2004 was probably my least favourite of my snowy choices but made the list due to getting a bit of snow at least. The main event on the morning of the 28th. For Variety For variety it has to go to 1999, 2001, 2012, 2019 and 2021 for a mix of cold / snow and mild or warm 1st - 2019 was very interesting purely for the huge temperature range during that month. Cold enough for severe frosts and snow at the start and warm enough to be like summer by the end of the month. Don't think I've seen such an extreme contrast in a winter month ever before. 2nd - 2001 was interesting for variety as well and generally was a cold start, a mild middle and a cold end. Cold and dry with freezing fog and a little snow early on, then less cold but wet 2nd week. The 3rd week was very mild, dry and sunny from what I recall before the main snowy course came from the 23rd onwards with the best snow event on the evening of the 25th. 3rd - 2012 was similar to 2009 in a tale of two halves. Cold and dry first half then mild and dry 2nd half. Decent frontal snow events on both the 4th and 8th. 4th - 2021 is like a watered down version of 2019 for temperature extremes with the cold a bit longer and the mild spell less warm than 2019 but still interesting non the less. Saw more snow in 2021 as well compared with 2019. 5th - 1999 was a definite classic of wild switches between cold and / or snow and mild and in this month wet. My favourite week of that month has to be from the 6th to the 13th as this was the coldest and snowiest week of that month. Although there were more short lived cold snaps in the month the big switches between the cold and the mild made this month interesting. For dream synoptics and this only 2005 was only on this list due to the perfect dream cold and snowy synoptics that dominated the period from the 18th through to the end of the month. If only this had delivered on what was showing. Too little real cold to tap into so perfect setup wasted and only looked good on the synoptic charts after a general lack of this kind of setup for years before it. For cold This has to go to 2010 and 2013 1st - 2010 for me just takes it over 2013 purely because I saw just a little bit more snow in 2010 to go along with the cold month compared with 2013. 2nd - 2013 for me was very much a cold month wasted. Was a lot of snow potential here but cold, dry and often cloudy doesn't cut it much for me. May as well make use of the cloud and get snow. My overall top 3 favourite Februaries 1st - 2009 for me is hands down my favourite February due to several snow events as I mentioned above and the prolonged nature of the cold during the first half of that month. The second half was a bit of a let down but at least it was mostly dry with the milder weather and didn't turn into a washout. 2nd - 2019 was my overall second best February month that I can remember. This is purely due to the huge temperature contrasts during this month with the cold and snow at the start and summer like warmth at the end. Even though there was very little snow in the month the way this month panned out made me rate it quite highly. 3rd - 2018 comes 3rd for me due to the Beast from the East event at the end of the month that came after a generally chilly month but not overly cold until this beast came. The very extreme nature of the cold and the snow was what pushed 2018 right up into my top 3 February months.

GFS 12z has a reversal showing up at 10hpa The reversal is even stronger at 1hpa

Out of all Januaries I can remember I'd say my favourites ones are for a snow lover 2010 (1st 10 days especially) 2013 (2nd half especially) 1996 (Last 10 days) 1997 (First 10 days) 2003 (Early in the month and the toppler at the end of the month) Other Januaries that at least had a decent frontal snow event or a good day or two of snow showers or were just generally cold months 2015 (Cold zonality at months end) 1999 (12th January frontal snow) 1995 (25th January frontal snow) 2004 (Snow at end of month) 2009 (Cold month)

Just when it looked like the stratosphere front had gone back to normal zonality and boring again suddenly warmings start to appear at the end of both GFS and GEM models. The warmest ones are below and every single member that goes out to +384h has some degree of warming at the end GFS GEM Can we get these down to T+0 and will it finally remove the vortex for us and with a very quick response can we just about squeeze out another BFTE 2018 repeat?

Winter 2016/17 was unusual in that the mildest weather was in Scotland and N Ireland whilst England and Wales were closer to average with some colder than average weather in January in the south. All caused by a semi persistent Sceuro high setup that kept Scotland and N Ireland in SW winds off the Atlantic whilst England and Wales were closer to the high and on occasions got a colder continental feed in January especially.

Don't know the last time but I do remember back end of October 2000. On the 29th we had gusts around 70mph from one storm. This was followed by a slight lull before the most severe storm of the autumn and for many years came in during the early hours of the 30th which brought destructive winds with widespread gusts over southern half of UK around 90mph and snow in northern England too.

Don't you mean end of Jan and not end of Feb? Edit LOL, guess @damianslawspotted the mistake

That's some serious WAA there. Looks very similar to the pattern just before BFTE 2018

Maybe it's about to come to an end then. Maybe passing solar max and entering into the descending odd phase cycle 25 may bring in an increasingly colder period as we approach the on average coldest period of solar min odd to even and the ascending even cycle 26. The pattern is also seen with other descending odd into ascending even phases too with cold periods congregating around these times.

Anti 2003 from memory would lead to the following Anti January 2003 = Still very much average as the cold and mild spells/snaps cancelled each other out anyway Anti February 2003 = Would flip from colder and drier to milder and wetter Anti March 2003 = Don't particularly remember this month Anti April 2003 = We would lose that nice warm spell I remember Anti May 2003 = I think this month would improve in it's anti form Anti June 2003 = Flip from warm and wet to cool and dry Anti July 2003 = Flip from warm and mixed to cool and mixed Anti August 2003 = Flip from very warm and dry to cool and wet Anti September 2003 = Would flip from warm start and chilly end to cool start and very warm end. Would also become wetter overall Anti October 2003 = Don't remember this month much Anti November 2003 = Don't remember this month much Anti December 2003 = Generally would flip from mild and wet to cold and dry Anti 2005 Anti January 2005 - Flips to cold first half and milder second half Anti February 2005 - Flips to cold first half and milder second half Anti March 2005 - Flips to warm first half and cold second half Anti April 2005 - Generally average but has late cold snap instead of an early one Anti May 2005 - Becomes cooler and more unsettled but with late warm snap and a cold early snap Anti June 2005 - Flips to cool and unsettled with a warm dry final week Anti July 2005 - Flips to hot start and end with a cooler unsettled period in the middle Anti August 2005 - Generally remains close to average Anti September 2005 - Flips to chilly start with a hotter spell later on Anti October 2005 - Flips to hot start with a general cooling trend as the month goes on. Arctic blast at the end of the month Anti November 2005 - Flips to Arctic northerlies dominate first half. Mild second half Anti December 2005 - Flips to cold and snowy until around Christmas. Very mild final week.

Just thought I'd add this one to your anti 2013. Anti 2013 was most famous for it's Sudden Stratospheric COOLING event After the biggest Canadian Warming on record in Anti Autumn 2012 that destroyed the polar vortex before it had got fully up to speed leaving record breaking warm temps in the stratosphere during Anti late November 2012 and through Anti December 2012 it was looking odds on for a 1962/63 winter repeat with the record breaking 60N 10hpa zonal easterlies for this time period but like the usual bad luck we get in the UK we saw a substantial record breaking Sudden Stratospheric COOLING event get going at the end of Anti December 2012, peaking early Anti January 2013 so what looked like a promising cold winter for the coldies all went to pieces during Anti January 2013 and the rest of the period from Mid Anti January 2013 to early Anti April 2013 was noting short of a mild bore fest with the mildest of the weather occurring during Anti March 2013 with some record breaking warmth in the last 10 days of the month especially.

Are you sure of a minimum of -11C in July. That would seriously smash all records?

If I split this one up into 3 categories, Worst Year, Worst Seasons and Worst Months we have WORST YEAR - 2015 2015 for me was the worst. Did have the cold zonality and little bit of snow late Jan and early Feb but the rest of the year was poor for me. Was either wet, cloudy or cool (summer) or mild (winter). The worst was November and December 2015, what a mild wet horror show those 2 months were. WORST SEASONS Winters 2011/12 - Apart from early Feb 2012 the rest of the winter was boring 2013/14 - Mild wet horror show 2015/16 - As 2013/14 2016/17 - Boring as hell 2018/19 - Mild and dry is boring for me. The Feb heatwave did provide some interest though as well as the brief snow events of mid Jan to early Feb Springs 2015 - Boring 2017 - Very unremarkable for me Summers 2011 - Cool and unremarkable 2012 - Washout 2015 - Washout Autumns 2011 - Apart from the late Sep/early Oct heatwave the rest was cloudy, mild and boring 2015 - A chilly Sep that gave way to wet and windy as we went through Oct and Nov 2018 - Disappointing after the interesting Jan to early Aug period 2019 - Washout WORST MONTHS Feb 2011 - Washout April 2012 - Washout June 2012 - Washout July 2012 - Washout May 2013 - Cool and Wet Dec 2013 - Wet and a Storm Fest Feb 2014 - As Dec 2013 Aug 2014 - Cool drab month June 2015 - Wet July 2015 - Wet (Except heat spike) Sep 2015 - Chilly Nov 2015 - Mild wet horror show Dec 2015 - Even more extreme version of Nov 2015 mildness Dec 2016 - Boring Feb 2017 - Boring Aug 2017 - Cool and Wet Dec 2018 - Mild and Boring Oct 2019 - Washout Nov 2019 - Washout Dec 2019 - Washout

Come on, we have to get GEM P14 in please At least it's not +384h away like these sorts of charts usually are but this one is only 10 days away. Can it end this way? Also wanted to show you this freaky GEM 00z chart for +384h away. The 2m temp min is mind boggling for Scunthorpe and would break our overnight min no doubt P14 is showing -17.7C as a 2m temp min on P14 However the 500mb and 850mb charts for this member at the same stage are nothing special considering this Some serious inversion cold going on there I would say

I think I need to correct you here. January 2013 was a tale of two halves but a colder second half, not the first. Generally mild up to around the 13th, then the cold weather kicked in and was generally on and off from mid January 2013 until early April 2013 January 2021 wasn't overly cold, nothing that I would call significant and the month overall was only a very small margin below average CET wise. I would agree with 2010, 2009, 1997, 1987 and 1985 though for first half of January cold

There has been a lot more Atlantic weather in 2023 and what has been notable for this year is how warm the Atlantic is so when we got the westerly dominated July and August it seemed cool but in fact wasn't really that cool at all. I think it is the SSTA's that have contributed a lot to 2023 somehow ending up a record breaker in it's own right even with no real stand out freak daily minimums or maximums, just persistently above average really all year. Despite nothing that notable except June and September for monthly CET's it looks dead certain now we will see another 11C CET year straight after our first one last year and it looks like we won't be that far off last year's annual mean CET value either, within a few hundredths Celsius. Predicted annual mean = 11.090C (subject to very small changes depending on model output) 2022 annual mean = 11.149C (2023 predicted to be only -0.059C below this at present)

Maybe the reason winter has gone off the rails with the mild and wet is that the NINO is too strong. We really needed something around +1C to +1.5C, not around +2C which is almost mimicking a Super Nino pattern for December now and with NINO 3 warmer than NINO 4 the EP event isn't helping either.