SqueakheartLW

Looks like the Kent shield won the battle

Not long now for me Still yet to hear any thunder though. Is this system starting to fade?

You got a cell that was just a little ahead of the main band. Looks like you are about to see the main zone arrive

Noticed these showers popping up ahead of the main zone Wonder if these will end up storms too. Not that I can see any of this lot coming. Still full of North Sea muck and cloud and sky looks the same in every direction

Everywhere is bone dry. The grass has gone yellow and brown and the soil is like a dust bowl. I think everything could do with a bit of water right now

Could you send this up the road to Scunthorpe for me?

Think I'm finally going to see my storm fix. Have missed out for the whole week. Finally good that the TOD has finally fallen and it looks like the Lincolnshire shield has finally failed but can this lot get up to me in N Lincs? With that big area showing up just off the coast of Norfolk I look to be in a good position. Might just arrive in time for dusk and nighttime assuming it all doesn't die a death before it gets to me or suddenly changes course

Here's a promising start if you are hoping for a cold winter 2020/21 Every single one of the CFS runs is below the long term average for zonal winds and all significantly below 2019 at the same stage of the year. Wouldn't take much really since it was a polar vortex of doom after all. These runs tie in with the general themes from the main long range CFS runs. These are my totals so far from the daily runs I have looked at CFS 00Z 500hpa anomalies Start 06/07/2020 Last 15/08/2020 Temps Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar V Mild 0 1 0 1 0 Mild 12 10 7 7 7 Average 13 11 17 15 22 Cold 16 19 17 15 10 V Cold 0 0 0 3 2 LEADER COLD COLD AV/CD AV/CD AVERAGE Precip Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar V Dry 0 0 1 1 0 Dry 13 22 8 8 7 Average 20 9 16 12 16 Wet 7 10 15 16 15 V Wet 1 0 1 4 3 LEADER AVER AV/WET AV/WET WET AV/WET Not looking good if you want a dry winter but since most options are average temperatures or colder then there's every hope that with the wetter than average signal combining with a colder than average one that a fair few of these wetter spells could have snow involved in them. There is a clear front loaded winter signal beginning to emerge too as these runs progress too. Maybe ties in well with the CFS zonal wind forecast.

Noticed a nice little line of showers across North York Moors right now too but no lightning on the detectors at the moment

Could you all help blow it into North Lincs too. We haven't had a good storm for a while now

It's just the shock that August has decided to play ball and be a summer month this year instead of like autumn

Another update on the QBO which it has to be said looks a bit more promising if you want the EQBO to return to the upper stratosphere at least In my last bigger update things didn't look very good after that positive zonal wind for the QBO at 30 hpa and the bad news route of the two I wanted when it looked like the WQBO was on its way back again Things have changed somewhat since then in general above 20 hpa I shall start this time with the general overview of the main QBO levels that matter the most 1 - The continuation of the good news in regards to a possible EQBO fightback is the continuation of the descent and weakening of the anomalous easterly jet that formed early this year. This is allowing the westerlies above to also descend and this should make room for easterlies to return above the westerlies 2 - The ever persistent westerlies refuse to move from the areas between 20 hpa and now down to an average of 50 hpa and overall they have strengthened which isn't looking good for winter 2020/21 but since this isn't a standard WQBO then there's no real idea on how this will affect the winter overall. What this persistent WQBO at this level could have done is acted in a similar fashion to what the anomalous easterly jet did earlier in the year when this severely impacted the EQBO above. This could now be causing what should have been the next WQBO to fail now instead. 3 - Signs of this possible failure of what should have been the next WQBO are becoming more and more evident now with recent increases in EQBO winds above 20 hpa and in the last week there has been the strongest EQBO wind burst since the last EQBO got disrupted earlier this year. There has also in general been a reduction in WQBO winds at 10 hpa and more neutral to weak easterlies on average showing up. I will be watching this height in the next few weeks to see if this trend continues I shall take a more broad view of the above chart to compare the current situation and predict when the EQBO will likely set in fully at 10 hpa if it does make a comeback 1 - The red line shows the lowest level of the lingering WQBO at around 50 hpa and when comparing that to the last WQBO this took place at around the end of January into early February 2019 2 - Head vertically up to the 10 hpa level 3a - I then drew another vertical line down from when the EQBO started in April 2019 at 10 hpa. This shows we have around 3 months to go before there's a realistic chance of the EQBO re-establishing itself 3b - The final horizontal line shows that the most realistic height that the WQBO has to have descended to in order for the EQBO to stand a chance of returning is close to 80 hpa so not much chance in the next few weeks but with the strange behaviour with the QBO at present then anything could be possible Now I shall show the more general view through a deeper level of the atmosphere 1 - Further good news if an EQBO is to return as the neutrals to weak easterlies have descended right down to 15 hpa and still look to be slowly descending just that little bit further too 2 - The other good news for the possible EQBO return is how easterlies are strengthening higher up and these should descend and add further easterly momentum to those lower down. At the moment it looks like the next due WQBO is now failing but only as long as the last lingering WQBO doesn't strengthen so much it effectively becomes the next fully blown WQBO One thing that does give hope for the EQBO to return is how different this disruption event is to the 2016 one 1a - The clear anomalous easterly jet and the disrupting influence is clear to see here in 2016 and the effect is had in stalling then reversing the descent of the EQBO 1b - This EQBO had barely formed and had no time to really get established so it is no wonder that this disruption event was so successful in causing the EQBO to fail 2 - We finally got a standard EQBO in 2017/18 and what looked like a standard WQBO in 2018/19 but this one was going to then go pear shaped again in 2019/20 3a - As in 2016 we yet again see another anomalous easterly jet form and this one is a much bigger disruption event than the 2016 one. Due to this you would expect a total failure of the EQBO and a return to a full strength WQBO but things haven't worked out quite like that, at least not so far anyway 3b - I feel the main reason the disruption event has had far less success this time around despite it been a bigger one is the fact the EQBO was far stronger and more established in the upper stratosphere before the disruption took place. It appears the disruption has only weakened the EQBO significantly but hasn't done quite enough to kill it off completely. This is why I feel things are pretty much on a knife edge and it could go either way but the most recent developments look like the EQBO is trying to fight back above 20 hpa at least

Had been a decent week for cold and snow from 4th January 2010 to the 9th January 2010 and it looked like the worst snow of the winter was due on the 10th but what a disappointment it was when I got up next day and saw all that fresh powdery snow from the few days before that had stayed frozen in the ice days from 7th to 9th January all melting away like it did However in Scunthorpe we made up for this big time between 30th November 2010 and 1st December 2010. Stuck under a snow streamer all night long and got about 50 cm of snow

On the east coast but Scunthorpe is miles away from the east coast itself. Was very much in a snow area on that forecast

Nothing compared to the new shield we have over Lincolnshire and the NE of England this week. Nothing to be seen around us at all. Only place that got a storm this week was a short 15 minute one in Hull that we in Scunthorpe developed for them, otherwise nothing

Looks like your local high pressure is holding out

The new Lincolnshire shield is keeping this thing away. Was heading NW until it got here Someone must have set up a barrier between Boston, Sleaford and Newark because as soon as this got to where the red line is it suddenly started to curve away west. No chance for me in Scunthorpe at the top of this shot then

Don't go and spoil it by saying that. You never know

This currently looks promising although I shouldn't get my hopes up really Just plotted where the eastern extent of this storm system is tracking. It appears to be building on the eastern side of the band of storms. If this continues then the eastern edge should follow the red arrow and means Scunthorpe should see some storms later this afternoon. Keep going like this storms and don't swerve westwards or die on me before you get to Scunthorpe

If it wasn't for this easterly wind and the annoying ridge of high pressure pushing down across the north and some eastern areas Killing off all chances anywhere NE of a line from Suffolk through to NW England

In order for me to see any I'll need them breeding across Norfolk, no chance

Same for me AGAIN. The Lincolnshire northwards shield has been switched on to maximum so far this week

Noticed this popped up out of nowhere on the radar between 8:25 and 8:30. Can anyone see what is going on here? 8:25 8:30

Anyone got a great view from Eastbourne. They look closest to the channel storms

Watch out, F5 twister coming your way