SqueakheartLW

Think I'm in for some serious storm action later on in my area. I've marked my location with an X. You may need to zoom in to see it clearly Right in the middle of that severe 50%+ risk area Reflected somewhat in this storm risk map for early evening Right in the highest CAPE area in the whole of the UK This is going to get very exciting later on. As long as we don't get hit by a tornado or get that 5cm hail that is predicted

Wonder if the monster southern polar vortex is playing a part in disrupting the QBO further. Seen just how big that vortex is this year. It stretches right up almost to the sub tropics in places. Also take a closer look at the most northern extent of this vortex and what it appears to be doing to the QBO The polar vortex shouldn't be reaching right up to 20 S. It is disrupting the usual easterlies that are found in the 10 to 20 N and S regions. There's no easterlies to speak of in the 10 to 20 S region like there usually is and what makes this even more strange is how the most northern part of this monster vortex appears to be adding westerly momentum to the QBO in the Indonesia region and this is slowly accelerating the westerlies at 10hpa Whatever happened during the northern hemisphere winter to begin the disruption appears to be continuing with what appears to be happening with the southern winter vortex However there is some hope for EQBO to reform again when looking at the following chart 1 - It looks like that 40hpa easterly jet is on its way out as it has got weaker and is now descending finally. The peak easterlies have now dropped down to 50hpa and the westerly above it is now moving down to replace the easterly at 40hpa 2 - The good news here for the EQBO is that it appears to have just managed to hang on at around 20hpa and recently the area of weak easterlies looks to have expanded slightly. The westerlies below this area look to be descending away whilst the westerly region above it hasn't really expanded by much at all. Will this easterly get going in time for the winter or will it get going at all?

Heat everywhere again. The USA is having its own heatwave. We are going to get our own hot spell and there's Siberia of course which is the most extreme one of the selection. Look how far south that wind has come from and dragged all that heat right up to the Arctic Circle. That temperature contrast is extreme from Siberia at 30+ C compared with the freezing point temperatures just to the north of it. Imagine the severe thunderstorms if the air mass wasn't so dry

January 6.4 +2.6 February 6.3 +2.5 March 6.7 +1.0 April 10.4 +2.5 May 12.5 +1.3 June 14.6 +0.6 provisional, to the 21st Averages so far this year:- Average CET to May: 8.46 Normal CET to May: 6.46 Anomaly to May: +2.00 Provisional CET anomaly (up to 21st June): +1.82 Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.95, which is 1.44 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.10 for the remainder of this year The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.86, which is -2.65 lower than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be lower than -6.66 for the remainder of this year So far the provisional annual anomaly places us well on course to smash 2014's record of 10.95C. If we remain at +1.82C above then the final annual CET will be a new record high of 11.33C With how variable and extreme things can be these days it could still be possible but extremely unlikely that the lowest CET of 6.86 could still fall but that would need an ice age to start right now with needing temperatures to fall to at least -6.66 below average for the rest of the year.

We could easily blame the sudden turn in the weather on the tripole in the N Atlantic as well as the rapidly forming La Nina event in the Pacific. There are other examples of summers that turn out bad when there's a very quick transition into a La Nina in the spring and early summer. This happened in 1998 when we went from Super Nino to La Nina in a short space of time then the summer ended up a cool washout. 2007 was similar in how we crashed from an El Nino into La Nina in the spring before the heavens opened. It's not the fact we enter La Nina as such but the speed it happens and the strength of it too that can cause this sudden flip to wet weather in the summer. Anomalies at end of April 2020 No real obvious sign of La Nina here but the N Atlantic tripole is already forming which is good for a colder winter but bad news if you want a dry settled summer Now fast forward to the latest anomaly chart Anomalies on 6th June 2020 A La Nina signature has clearly become visible and is strengthening quite rapidly too. Some of the coldest spots are almost 4C below average but the overall anomaly in the La Nina area is around 1 to 1.5C below average. The tripole is even more obvious than it was before. Both of these things could spell curtains for a decent summer unless you like wet weather

Looks like the EQBO is just about to fail Look just how weak the easterlies have got above 30hpa and this has happened rather quickly too. One thing I did notice in the link above is reference to a developing easterly anomaly centred on 40hpa and look at the chart, 40hpa is where the fastest easterlies are right now. Unless this anomalous easterly jet pushes upwards and kills off the neutral to weakly westerly winds above then this will go down as possibly the weakest and shortest EQBO on record This second chart shows the QBO at different levels of the atmosphere from 10hpa down to 100hpa. The Westerlies are the brown sandy coloured areas and the easterlies are the greens and blues. The 2017/2018 EQBO descended without any problems as can easily be seen on the left of the chart. On the right you can see the strange pattern that has developed really since the start of winter 2019/2020 with increasing easterlies forming under the remains of the last WQBO By the time you get to the most recent data on the far right of the chart it is clear the EQBO has been almost killed off by the lingering westerlies around 30hpa combined with new westerlies descending down from 10hpa too. Is this a temporary blip and the easterlies will resume or is this the last days of the EQBO above 30hpa for a while now and we will get another period of westerlies again over the next year at least I did also note that there were references to 1987/1988 and 2010/2011 in the link above too. In the above chart the QBO phases are seen as white for easterlies and grey for westerlies 1 - There is the clear and obvious easterly jet that formed in 2016 at around 40hpa which was responsible for killing off the easterly QBO in 2016. This formed when the EQBO had only just begun to descend and was enough to kill it off until 2017 2 - The latest descending EQBO is more advanced than the 2016 one but the anomalous easterly jet at 40hpa is also stronger than the 2016 one. What both 2015/2016 and 2019/2020 have in common is a record strong polar vortex in both of those winters 3 - When looking at the other years mentioned (1987/1988 and 2010/2011) it was mentioned that the westerlies didn't turn to easterlies at 40hpa but when looking at the chart there is a clear weakening of the westerlies at 40hpa in both of those N Hemisphere winters before they pick up speed again. Also in 2010/2011 there was quite a strong polar vortex too

The biggest effect will most likely play out in Winter 2020/2021. Winter 2016/2017 was a blocked winter and if the EQBO had played out as it should have done it could have been a cold winter. As it happened it could have been the continuing WQBO that put paid to it as we were close at times to pulling in sustained cold spells but the blocking always set up in the wrong place and put us in the mild area instead This year we appear to be forming a tripole in the N Atlantic right now and with the prospect of a La Nina too which also looks to be forming right now combined with low solar activity then things looked to be shaping up quite well for a cold UK winter as the EQBO should have been at its strongest by the time we got to the end of this year but with the latest developments it looks like that factor could play against us getting a cold winter. Combine that with the warming N Pacific again then a more standard or mild winter now looks more likely again. As for summer 2020 the rapidly forming La Nina is a bigger concern if you want a dry summer as previous summers where we have quickly transitioned into La Nina the weather has taken a dive into a washout, 1998 and 2007 are good examples of this.

Anyone get the feeling we are going to see ANOTHER EQBO failure The charts on the following website make me think so The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) ACD-EXT.GSFC.NASA.GOV Plots of the QBO The first chart I have picked out shows the wind speeds and direction at various levels of the atmosphere This chart very briefly around a week or so ago said we were in the easterly phase then last week after just 1 week of EQBO decided we were in the west descending phase and in the last 2 days says we have gone back westerly again. Although we have performed better than in 2016 in the fact we achieved an EQBO it has based on this site so far been the shortest on record possibly The second chart shows what has happened over quite a number of years As can be seen in all years prior to 2016 things progressed very much as normal between EQBO and WQBO and back again. 1 - The first circled area clearly shows the EQBO failure in 2016, widely blamed on the Super Nino that took place around this time and how the WQBO expanded once again and strengthened throughout 2016 2 - A strange easterly jet developed in the lower regions of the atmosphere around the time of the EQBO failure. This appears to cut off the EQBO from descending and causes it to fail 3 - The most recent area shows a 2016 repeat but to less of a degree. It seems the EQBO is struggling a lot to make any progress below around 20hpa although it has performed better than in 2016 but can clearly be seen to be weakening in recent times 4 - Like in 2016 another one of those anomalous easterly jets has formed in the lower atmosphere again, this time a much faster one than the 2016 one. Although the effects are not really visible on this chart they are on the zoomed in one coming up The final chart is a more in depth look at the last 3 years of the QBO Here it is easy to compare this EQBO attempts vs the last one 5 - The 2017/2018 WQBO to EQBO transition progressed without any trouble and after 2016's failure things look to be back to normal 6a - There is a very brief change to a WQBO during this EQBO at 10hpa level. 6b - There is another of these changes to a WQBO at around 10hpa but this one looks like it is descending down below 10hpa already and this is after out week long EQBO. Is it more like the brief episode in 2018 or is this the death of the EQBO before it has really got going 7 - The anomalous easterly jet is clearly visible here on this chart and has really taken over the lower part of the atmosphere and it has clearly pushed the lingering WQBO upwards again and this combined with the WQBO appearing at 10hpa appears to be killing off the EQBO This looks like a watered down version of the 2016 failure and this time a Super Nino cannot be blamed so was it really the Super Nino that caused it or something else as it looks like another failure is about to happen.

Don't know how we can be getting to a more blocked pattern unless it is forced from the troposphere somehow as that polar vortex shows no signs of slowing down neither. The CFS members on weather is cool have the vortex lasting right into May At this rate could we see our first ever recorded zonal westerlies at 10hpa in June?

Done some research on the link between solar activity and the winter CET's recorded since the beginning of solar cycle 1 that started with the winter of 1754/1755. I have split the results into different stages within solar cycles as well as if it is an odd or even cycle or a transition between odd to even or even to odd at minimum as well. The following is what I got ordered from mildest solar cycle stage to coldest stage for winters in the UK Solar Max Odd December January February Overall Winter Averages 3.98C 3.10C 5.52C 4.20C Anomaly -0.26 Colder -0.29 Colder +1.56 Milder +0.34 MILDER Solar Max Even December January February Overall Winter Averages 3.84C 4.52C 3.91C 4.09C Anomaly -0.40 Colder +1.13 Milder -0.05 Colder +0.23 MILDER Solar Min Even to Odd December January February Overall Winter Averages 5.05C 3.13C 4.06C 4.08C Anomaly +0.81 Milder -0.26 Colder +0.10 Milder +0.22 MILDER Ascending Even Cycle Min to Max December January February Overall Winter Average 4.08C 3.09C 4.78C 3.98C Anomaly -0.16 Colder -0.30 Colder +0.82 Milder +0.12 MILDER Descending Even Cycle Max to Min December January February Overall Winter Averages 4.43C 3.41C 3.79C 3.88C Anomaly +0.19 Milder +0.02 Milder -0.17 Colder +0.02 MILDER Descending Odd Cycle Max to Min December January February Overall Winter Average 4.42C 3.57C 3.52C 3.84C Anomaly +0.18 Milder +0.18 Milder -0.44 Colder -0.02 COLDER Ascending Odd Cycle Min to Max December January February Overall Winter Average 4.01C 3.28C 3.89C 3.73C Anomaly -0.23 Colder -0.11 Colder -0.07 Colder -0.13 COLDER Solar Min Odd to Even December January February Overall Winter Averages 3.29C 2.86C 3.49C 3.21C Anomaly -0.95 Colder -0.53 Colder -0.47 Colder -0.65 COLDER Overall Averages Dec1754 to Dec2018 Jan1755 to Jan2019 Feb1755 to Feb2019 Overall Winters Dec1754 to Feb2019 4.24C 3.39C 3.96C 3.86C Overall it seems odd solar cycles are colder overall or transitioning out of an odd cycle to an even one whilst the even cycles are overall milder Solar maximum is mildest overall as expected with odd maximums ahead of the even maximums. The odd solar max figure is overall +0.34C MILDER for winters The even solar max figure is overall +0.23C MILDER for winters Odd solar maximums favour a front loaded winter whilst the even solar maximums favour a mild January Next comes to my surprise Solar minimum when transitioning from an even solar cycle to an odd numbered one. Winter 2019/2020 is probably one of these winters The even to odd solar cycle transition is overall +0.22C MILDER for winters This is in fact almost the same as having a solar maximum winter anomaly January is most favoured for cold based on the averages but there are some exceptions in the data, January 2020 is clearly going to be another exception December is most favoured to be the mildest month in the even to odd solar minimum stage Next comes Ascending Even Cycle from minimum to maximum This favours an overall +0.12C MILDER than average winters A front loaded winter is most likely followed by quite a mild February overall 2010/2011 is a classic example of the above pattern. This is followed by the final milder option with Descending Even cycle maximum to minimum This favours an overall +0.02C MILDER than average winter and could be said to be basically average A back loaded winter is favoured overall with slightly milder December's and January's February is most likely to be colder than average Next comes the Descending Odd cycle maximum to minimum This favours an overall -0.02C COLDER than average winter and is more or less average again As with the descending even cycle winters these ones also favour a back loaded winter The anomalies are slightly colder and overall these winters are marginally colder than the descending even cycle ones February yet again comes away with a cold anomaly but more severe than the descending even cycle February's The next option is Ascending Odd cycles minimum to maximum This favours an overall -0.13C COLDER than average winter so slightly below normal on average Unlike ascending even cycles that favour milder conditions it seems ascending odd cycles favour colder winters All winter months come out colder than average overall with December better placed to be the coldest of the three THIS LOOKS PROMISING FOR THE NEXT 2 - 4 WINTERS FROM 2020 TO 2022-2024 AFTER THIS MILD FEST OF A 2019/2020 WINTER The final option is Solar minimum when transitioning from an odd solar cycle to an even solar cycle This favours an overall -0.65C COLDER than average winter. 2008/2009 was one of these winters and it was indeed colder than average All of the winter months come out colder than average overall, especially the December's We'll have to wait and see but around 2030 we could get quite a severe winter, especially if solar cycle 25 ends up another weak one

Squall line just reaching Jersey now. It is also now giving some people in Belgium a taste of what we have had today Lots of heavy showers packing in behind by the looks of it

Look at those shower streamers over Scotland right now. One through the central belt and another curved one to the north of it. Looks like the centre of the storm is over NE Scotland at the moment with that small hook of rain there

There's another line behind this one in the north. Don't know if that will form another squall line or not

The GFS 12z is bad in terms of zonality for any hopes of sustained cold but the best we get are a few cold zonality shots at times during the run There appears to be nothing that can disrupt the polar vortex it would seem and this run shows just that from the moment the latest warming finally subsides at around +180 hours 10hpa 30hpa And again no disruption to the vortex at any point after this right out to 384 hours. Just a nice tightly rounded ball on both charts 10hpa 30hpa If this chart is also to be believed then the zonal winds are going almost off the scale again in the anomalies really throughout the time period but especially later on. This other chart from weather is cool is just a sight of horror if you want anything cold. Seems like zonal winds could be setting some new records again later this month based on the mean of the GFS members and some of the CFS runs too. All of this just translates to the expected pattern with zonal from start to finish and the two following charts are snapshots of the surface pattern at the same +180 hours and +384 hours timeslots +180hrs +384hrs As can be seen, nothing but zonal but the best chance of anything wintry is within the colder sectors between systems and this will most likely be higher ground or in the far north.

This looks initially like a monster low on the GFS 6z run at +342hrs That central pressure is below 920mb However the predicted wind gusts with it are actually lower than what they are saying with storm Ciara on Sunday Storm Ciara gusts Gusts with this predicted low that probably won't verify like this

Considering February 1779 got a CET of 7.9 and how we have a warmer world than back in the 1700's then I just get the feeling that we are due our first February CET of 8.0 or more. We got our first 20C+ day last February.

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far Current mildest winter on record December 1868 - CET 7.2 December 2019 - CET 5.8 -1.4 lower January 1869 - CET 5.6 January 2020 - CET 6.5 +0.9 higher February 1869 - CET 7.5 February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869 If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter. Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

This is +384 hours on the 6z GFS 10hpa chart Just imagine what this would do for us on the surface if it verified exactly as shown We'd have two monster ridges. One will be the Siberian High, the other a monster Greenland/Canada ridge. A big trough would sit over Scandinavia and this would link back to the Atlantic lows which would be on a southerly track. This would place the jet stream through the med and leave us in a very cold Arctic northerly or even NE winds and a negative NAO to boot. Eastern USA could also go cold here from the same monster ridge over Greenland/Canada.

This looks more like it Saw the chart on weather is cool for the zonal winds based on 0Z GFS run Some of the members are going for a reversal of the zonal winds but the overall trend is very promising These charts show how much the zonal wind is collapsing in the extended range. It is even showing a slight reversal here too on the wind speed chart and it is good to see those blue colours on the anomaly chart. The very end of the 0z GFS run is also good to look at. At 10hpa it appears a split of the polar vortex is taking place here. Lets just hope that one of the pieces of the vortex doesn't end up coming to rest over Canada or Greenland. Over Europe would be much better and would encourage colder temperatures to move to the UK and Europe. At 30hpa the initial warming has already propagated down but the second warming isn't showing just yet. However the vortex split is beginning to show itself at this level too with the main colder part of the vortex over Europe. Will this create a December 2010 repeat if it got down to the troposphere. Finally at 500hpa there is still no sign of what is happening above but then it is probably too early to see any response in the troposphere at this stage but it looks like the changes above are descending quite rapidly. Lets see what these charts are showing in a few days time

Could be in for the UK's warmest year on the CET record since we are getting off to such a warm start already. We almost got the 25C Isotherm at 850hpa last summer. Maybe this year we could get close to the 30C Isotherm reaching us

The 6z GFS continues the trend of the big drop in the zonal winds Also your first image and the zonal wind chart are from different runs. This chart is the one that goes with the first image

This winter is definitely worse. in 1997/98 we had northerlies in early December that brought some northern and east coast regions some snow showers. We then had the beast from the east in mid December with that frontal snow event that I remember so well. Also around 19th or 20th January there was another northerly that gave further snow showers so compare 1997/98 to 2019/20 we had at least 3 snow events before this date whilst this winter I have seen ... NONE so 2019/20 definitely a lot worse

Here's a look at Tuesday night into Wednesday next week from 12z GFS Look at all that snow for central, southern and some eastern areas. The stratosphere also looks interesting at +384 hours too at 10hpa The warm region over Canada is the remains of the first warming but a new one is appearing over eastern Europe. If it merges with the other one we could be waving bye bye to the polar vortex very quickly.

If that one comes off. Smack bang right on top of where I live in North Lincolnshire. Will I finally be able to declare this a winter with some snowflakes instead of totally snow free as it has been for me so far

Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened