Erdem
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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes I'm afraid for cold fans , the Outlook is as poor as possible -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well the stats suggest it has been normal for UK , late eighties , late nineties and several consecutive similar types in New millenium -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's a real shame , sorry that the forecast you made has not worked out -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes , a very mild run taking us to middle of Jan , very well set Euro High -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
My parents cannot believe I can be in England in winter and not need to have heating on or coat when I go out -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One of the guys on TWO is saying he has never seen such mild ensembles in 20 years , it's a remarkable persistence of pattern , and it seems it happens more and more often . -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks snowray , I only looked at the temp numbers and it's clear , that for W Europe and even more so for UK and Ireland , there has been dramatic change since late eighties -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Ok , of course +NAO is normal but surely 'default' is not near record breaking , which January could be. -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Plenty of snow around in Turkey too , it's such a shame for the UK how things have changed -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think battleground snow would be unlikely because we have such a warm continent - south easterlies would not be cold enough ? -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
? Teapot -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes , I would think 16 or 17 is possible for SE. I'm now trying to understand this large teapot theory -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looking at some of the temperatures for last 30 years then , for snow fans , many of these winter's must have been in the realms of the worst -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes , incredible and the models suggest another very mild period for the mid month so the Jan temp record could come under threat . -
1986/87, and the change to a milder UK climate
Erdem replied to Sunny76's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Having done bit more research the figures really do show amazing changes since late eighties. If UK has mild December then mild Jan and Feb have nearly always followed which is amazing over 30 year plus period timeframe -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think we are very unlikely to see troughing to the SE, one problem is no Russian High this winter and just Low height all to the North . The set up just supports itself -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very mild charts again this morning and I would think the possibility to break some records for UK -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes , ECM starting to look good for SE Europe -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think any feed that we would get from the SE would be warmer than normal because of what has Happened so far. We would need to see the colder air getting under a higher latitude block and nothing suggests that at this time -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last winter I think those charts were at day 8 or so - and they still didn't happen . In SE Europe once the colder snowier weather is at that range you can be sure it's coming -
1986/87, and the change to a milder UK climate
Erdem replied to Sunny76's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Without a doubt from the synoptic , but why is this happening , the lack of high pressure further North -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Erdem replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Im not sure I would call the UKMO highly amplified , the concensus as I see the charts is Euro High and very strong PV -
1986/87, and the change to a milder UK climate
Erdem replied to Sunny76's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
This is interesting , because for SE Europe there has been generally no increase in winter temperature and more incident of snowfall and extreme cold periods in last 20 years - much of Turkey has recorded lowest minima - though I'm not sure of when records go back - in the 2000s/2010s -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Erdem replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Incredible but becoming more frequent and once again the colder air is for Turkey and Greece