DavidS
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Posts posted by DavidS
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6 minutes ago, carinthian said:
How I would like that chart to verify for the Eastern Alps ! Colder runs always out of reach for any confidence. Certainly, the ECM run this evenings offers some hope of colder temperatures for you lot back in Blighty.
C
I would like that to. Eastern Austria awaits me in Feb and that chart would be bringing the goods.
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51 minutes ago, jules216 said:
Split at 10hPa on GFS lala land
The GFS has been showing this warming for several days now, with each run a variation on a theme. This is the first split we’ve seen, albeit in deep FI.
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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Only 2 members but its a start, would like to see CFS going for it more as they have in the past usually been aggressive with SSW's
Yes agreed, the post should have mentioned that it was some gefs members. The mean doesn’t take it to a reversal....yet.
The 6z GFS is still going for the strat warm.
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Yep, GEFS going for a reversal
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The 12z GFS is still going for the Strat warm, and it looks to be staring within what might be considered the reliable.
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For once the 00z follows the 18z. It’s a horror show!
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Mmmm.....back to strat watching
GFS 00z at 10hpa has this.....maybe it is right this time?
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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming.
Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.
Sorry I know it off topic, but would be interesting to discuss / understand, by what mechanism the Azores high would become more expansive due to global warming. Perhaps better for another thread?
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Looks to be a double warming event.
Here at T240 then T384. In between the warming seems to dissipate then build again. Obviously all outside the reliable timeframe, and doesn’t look like it really gets into the pole.
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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:
D8 - Main vortex over Siberia:
D15 - Spinning round like a big washing machine, main deep vortex spins its way back over to its usual home of NE Canada/Greenland:
I like D15 for the Alps
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1 hour ago, Interitus said:
No simple answer really. With regards to the years mentioned however, 2008/9 featured a roaring vortex at record strength from 4-8th Jan before the SSW. 2009/10 did have an SSW but on February 9th after the main cold spell. 2010/11 had no SSW and a generally stronger than normal strat vortex.
Somewhat puzzling that while conditions are considered in remote influences such the Tropics and Pacific, Atlantic SSTs on the other hand rarely get a mention (indeed didn't feature in the Netweather winter forecast) when they have long been known to directly affect synoptic patterns for the UK and western Europe.
Really good point regarding Atlantic SSTs. For those seeking UK / Euro cold one of the factors you should ideally be looking for is the Warm/Cold/Warm tri-Pole in the North Atlantic. And it isn’t there this winter.
There is always discussion about the Pacific and MJO signals in the model threads but as you say the Atlantic rarely if ever gets a mention and it should.
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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Not suggesting I’m more knowledgeable in replying to your post but here is my thoughts on day 10. Looking at the various ideas from gfs many support what the ecm is showing. A high to our sw which allows a nw flow for the north. The high just can’t get enough north to allow anything more exciting as the jet is to strong. Now from there onwards all options are on the table and we will have to watch with interest.
Yes the high not as far north, and perhaps not as much surface cold as hoped for.
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Aside from the Northerly n deep FI, the GFS 00z output is somewhat uninspiring this morning. I hope a more knowledgeable poster can tell me otherwise.
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13 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:
Please would you explain what that means if it is favourable please for wintry conditions thank you
My first post as a newbie, but I feel I’ve learned enough that I can say the clusters are not favourable for wintry conditions for UK.
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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Obertauern