[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Light snow / snow grains, blowing about in the wind. Not expecting anything more substantial  than this today.

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Very, very light snow grains here

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

As others have said, brilliant GEM this morning.  I love this  D10 850 hpa temp anomaly.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

GFS 6z going for the Christmas tree formation at T288. Ok it’s February, not Christmas, but if the GFS wants to do this, I won’t complain.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where's the money for 192.. will that barrell low mid Atlantic phase with our trough and West based NAO I can't see it going under looking like that.  Maybe bbc are right.    

Under

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

ECM

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

50 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

By 2040 in the south they reckon 

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.

 

Mmm, not dissimilar to The Independent story from 2000, when Dr David Viner of CRU said children just wouldn’t know what snow is anymore.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

GFS 6z Op was top of the pack. Graph is for London

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

What’s not to like. Amplification looks good. Well positioned low to our South East. Non-marginal uppers.

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

GFS 6z at 216. Looking chilly.

 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

The GFS 00z looks like it was bouncing around the mean to me. Not v mild or v cold. Plenty of rain though.

Hipefully, it will find its way back to yesterday’s 12 and 18z efforts.

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Weak heights building to the north of the UK towards the end of the ECM. The central Med looks warm.

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Yes that’s a decent update, let’s hope the charts back that up as January comes to a close.

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Plume de Bilt. Impressive Control. Making a dream come true. Cyclones on a southern track delivering snow/ winter.in combination with a Scandi high.

Model charts for England (Snow depth) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/06/2021, 01:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

 

That would be crippling. A snow enforced lockdown

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Well we’ll, it would be good to see this theme develop

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

After the milder period with heights over Iberia, the GfS is continuing to show these heights pull west. This was previously outside D10 but is now inside this period.

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Past D10 The GFS 6z, followed the 0z by showing the tendency to move the Iberian heights back West.  Would be good to see that continue, and come inside D10, (for all those that don’t like Iberian heights).

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

GEFS also looking to keep zonal winds weak or reversed

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

GFS 0z having a good go at split in FI

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

They’ve probably parked a jet in front of the weather station and are turning the engines over ! 

Which is why airport data shouldn’t form part of records, not without caveats anyway.

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Make of this what you will

 

Looks similar to me. Trough not as deep

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Fascinating NHP in deep FI on the GFS

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Yes much better at 168

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Marginal!

Back to the models, @carinthian’s post was very.good, but I worry that there seems to be a pivotal point for the UK between cold and mild. Sadly, in those situations, mild is nearly always the outcome.

Yes, the chances of reverting to something more akin to climatology is always there. However this isn’t your typical winter, so our chances for colder are higher than would typically be the case.

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Just for fun...and because I have nothing better to do...shall we start that debate on what a ‘Blizzard ‘ is

If it gives me over 6 inches of lying snow, like that chart does, you can call it whatever you like.