[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Yes, shortwave drama, heights to the SE = yuck

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

We’ve seen it plenty of times before. The low in the Atlantic west of the Azores has to remain an independent feature. If it phases, it’s game over for the run.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

For both the GFS and ECM, the modelling of the low to the w/nw of the Azores is important, with GFS making it a more significant feature. GFS first.

The GEM handles it differently, but it is there and leave us tantalising T240

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How many of these cold looking charts make it down to even 5-,6 days ahead, gfs maybe throwing out some eye candy again, none have even been close to actually verified,yet. 

Tiresome model, its extended range really is a waste of time 

 

I tend to agree about the extended range, however a key feature of the run is the Arctic high, which is developing within the reliable.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

On the 6z, the low around the Azores is a weaker feature and further south, so doesn’t support the higher pressure to the north. 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS and Control vs ECM and GEM, it’s never good to follow those showing cold so I’ll sit on the fence with any guesses!!

 

To be fair I think the ECM would get better beyond day 10 looking at the chart  with weakening of the PV around Greenland !! 

Yes agreed, the ECM looks like it might present another chance past Day 10.

I would expect the GFS to back down on the 6z, as lots of things have to happen just right to build the ridge.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM not following, no WAA up the East of Canada

Yes, both ECM and GEM not having it. Would like to think the GFS has it right, but my limited experience says it probably won’t be.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Brilliant from the GFS 00z. Not often you get overnight upgrades. As ever, lots of key moments in the run, but the formation of the famous Azores Low looks important to me. 

This helps support the push of heights up the west side of Greenland 

After which the Northerly gets going

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22]

Big expansion of snow cover into Mongolia and Northern China.  Would like to see the Russian snow cover, re start it’s rather stalled move westward.  We may see this in the next few days.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

And for the GFS” next trick………….

taken with appropriate sized pinch of salt of course, but interesting nonetheless.

 

 

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22]

USNIC has updated, Big westward coverage of snow.

 

[Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion]

I’ve been enjoying clicking through the extended CFS now it is available on Wetterzentrale.

Below are just a few highlights from today’s 6z run. Interest begins in  mid November with a  Northerly. Cold is then on/off including something chilly for Christmas and the whole thing finishes in March with a tasty Easterly. 

All JFF, but if your of a cold persuasion,  enjoy:

 

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Day 10 to 13 on the GFS 00z brings the winter set up you want, when you don’t want it.

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Both GFS and ECM showing possibilities of high pressure pushing north of the UK. 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

0z gfs Op and para not having any of it. Any attempts of a ridge going north is quickly squashed on the para

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

18z GFS Op and Para, both lowering heights to our SE in FI, but get there via different routes. This at 324. Op first.

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

I’m late to the 12z today, but both the GFS Op and Para are offering something for Coldies in FI. Can it hold on for more than one run this time?

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

GFS 12z drops the Greenland High option. Ho hum, onwards we go.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

3 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Will it go up?

 

I’ll answer my own question - yes. Big time!

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Will it go up?

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Was going to post the same @Daniel. The amplified very warm southerly and high temperatures is just being chiselled away as the models have underestimated the strength of the Atlantic. Could just end up fairly mild, wet and windy instead of very mild and drier.

Yes the much warmer upper uppers looking to be kept just to the south and or east of the UK. Past D10 the GEFS are suggestive of something cooler.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

23 minutes ago, Stravaiger said:

I’m with Don...completely understand the variability we can be prone to at this time of year, but the parameters have shifted in favour of warmth.

You would never expect to get temperatures above 22C in the UK in February, it wouldn’t really have been considered climatically possible 50 years ago.

It relies on exceptional, anomalous warmth being there to our south for unusual post-SSW Synoptics to draw north.

I’d check the weather history before claiming what was o want possible 50 years ago

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

I wouldn't give up on further wintry weather yet. The short to medium term isn’t favourable for cold for the UK, but while the models are showing the potential for amplification (albeit not currently favourably placed) and higher pressure over the Arctic, I think Coldies should retain their interest.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Look at the vortex at 240. Is there not more on the table for this winter?

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

4 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Sorry if this shouldn't be here but is vital to the model discussion this morning.  Both MO extend and BBC TV go for extended cold. Never have I seen such a conflict.  Met model and extended are chalk and cheese.  Is Glosea markedly different?

BBC use the ECM but are normally behind the curve with their forecasts. 0z ECM has us here at D10, but it goes wrong before.