[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23]

The last two GFS runs hold some interest, albeit beyond day 10. They show the idea of the jet running on NW/SE alignment into southern Europe. This would bring lower temps and some much needed snow to the Alps, however as this forecast is almost 2 weeks away it is outside the reliable.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

A bizarre 18z GFS. Pretty much the same low pressure system stuck in the Atlantic for 200 hours. I’m not buying that!

Agreed. I have limited experience in watching the models (3 years). But that 18z doesn’t make sense to me. It just looks wrong.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Not too much for UK Coldies to get excited about with this mornings output. Day 7 onwards the ECM wants to lower heights and temperatures to our SE, which would be a welcome trend, however the GFS doesn’t want to do this until after Day 10, and does so by very different means.

The ECM at Day 10 shows a ridge being thrown up to our west. Probably a topper, but maybe it would push further north.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’m surprised by the “that’s it for December” posts.  

Agreed. That chart for the UK, in isolation, doesn’t look great, unless you  are a fan of south westerlies. However hemispherically it is fascinating and doesn’t indicate to me, there is a zonal train incoming. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

After last nights disappointment, I said the only thing that could cheer me up (a bit), was snow.

Just a dusting, so just a bit happier.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Talking of the day after tomorrow we have this perhaps on Tuesday!! Come on GFS my son...get in there  

Please! I need a pick me up, and that would help

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23]

31 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yep, its cold. Ideally, could just do with fresh fall to make perfect conditions. Where you going to min Feb ?

 

C

Obertauern as usual 

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23]

37 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The local Absolut Park first thing this morning. All ready for the first ride of the new season ( for those with young bodies ) ! Always great to watch though.

C

Looks amazing. Keep that snow fresh in Salzburgerland until I visit in February.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

I love it when the 850 anomalies look like this

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

168 to 192 and the low looks to have stalled. Images in wrong order

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

Looks promising to me. This at 210

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

And by the end we go again

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

And we are back to where we started….

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

35 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Big differences on the Icon even as soon as Saturday 

6z  12z 

Higher pressure proving more dominant and that leads to a nicer evolution 

Wow, the 12z ICON is really going for it and within the semi reliable. Will be interesting to see if it sticks with this on subsequent runs. It has been right before.

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23]

Todays GFS 12z (albeit past day 10), would be an acceptable solution for Ski resorts in Scandinavia and the Alps, with a significant improvement in snow cover. Days 11-13 below.

This is thanks to generally NW flow with the jet digging south through the Med.

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

South Westerlies for ever on the 6z GFS

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

The classic ridge over NE Pacific, trough into west USA and big low over NE Canada fuelling the jet.. a common synoptic all our winters since 2012-13. 

With the SST anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, cooling off somewhat……..

…….it seemed there was the possibility that the NE Pacific ridge would back off, but it remains as does the familiar pattern you mention.

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

UKMO EU smelling the coffee this morning, and it smells bitter.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

GEM  is ok for me past day 5 with jet looking to align NW/SE. D6, 9 and 10 below.. At least we’d get some weather.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d prefer the ECM, looks like a wintry set up come day 11/12, where as the GFS would just prolong the pain

Yes I agree. GEM and ECM show a general west to east movement of the TPV during the 10 days. It  is not possible to tell if this would allow any height rises in behind as it were and we have seen this pattern repeat through January, with little hint or opportunity for high pressure to move north.

Exciting it is not.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Might not make it to Scandinavia, but it is different.

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

High pressure forever on the 00z suites  this morning. The GFS has us under high pressure for the entire run, with only deep FI really suggesting it might want to e on the move.

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

The 6z GFS Op is a thing of beauty, but it sure is a complicated dance with the low pressure in the Atlantic alternating between cut off and not cut off.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

What the ‘flip’ is going on here then?

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Yes, bit of a snooze fest unfortunately. High pressure either over us or just to our west. Plenty of cold on offer to our east, but no sign of high pressure backing further west or north, to allow the UK to tap into it. Our weather probably not very mild or cold for the next week to ten days, just a bit meh.