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19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Fact rather than your fiction, if anyone would like to check on the Net Wx Extra rainfall accumulation charts for 168h (7 days) ahead, and it actually shows somewhat less than the 00 z.

Why are you doing this please?

I was referring to after that time period the Low to the West edges back in from T180 onwards.

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27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful EC det, humid,thundery and very warm as per Exeter as we drag in that continental heat ..

The 'beautiful' charts are what we have had in April and May.  Far from certain IMO that we will become much warmer, and for some areas there will be huge rainfall totals.

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Do not take the gfs ppn charts as gospel mate,you will do yourself an hernia,trust me,no model can predict ppn charts that far out and even the day before can sometimes be misleading 

the trough looks to set up shop to the SW of the UK(as it stands)so it will be warm rain or perhaps thunderstorms but it will not be a complete washout.

It will if the GFS has the position correct - it will just be constant rain being fed from the trough.

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1 minute ago, MATT said:

Misleading again mate.. Its delightful for the NW, and it's warming up... Yes its looking unsettled towards the SW but a lot can and will change with the movement of that Low.. I take it your from the South Midlands.. I don't think its a write off just yet.. The met have dry with sunny spells for the end of next week, and I'm only 40 or 50 miles North of you..

My area has seen dreadful summer flooding several times in the last 13 years and we are looking at that again if the GFS comes off. People are going on about storms but you won't have them if the low pressure centre is that close to us.

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Day 9 on the GFS and heavy rain almost everywhere.

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Really dreadful output tonight especially for my area and further South/SW. 

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Could well be. Looks like the low wants to wander down to the SW of the UK, so they’d be in prime position for most exposure to the frontal rain.

Day 7 and its still raining in the far SW.

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Cornwall and Devon especially are looking at serious flooding on this run.

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3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

This GFS run is a bit of a rainmaker, certainly for the south out to 102 

Cumulative rainfall has increased vs its previous run also, with some fairly large totals now showing up by Friday morning, with Central Southern England seeing the most at this point.

Yes two days of continuous heavy rain for here at least.

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Things have taken a turn for the worse for Southern areas - heavy rain now moving back North at day 5.

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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does ICON go to day 10?

As far as i am aware it only goes to day 8...

 

 

 

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ukmo day 5 - low cleared away enough to spare most a washout? Perhaps the south and southwest still quite wet.

Yes both GFS and UKMO have the low further North by day 5 than there earlier runs - wet for as far North as the South Midlands.

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Can you explain!!!?

Day 7 is wet for Wales and Southern England, day 10 the jet is rolling in off the Atlantic at exactly the wrong latitude for us as pressure remains high to the North.

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25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

We have a new ECM parallel, here's the 0z at T168 and T240, this isn't a settled run, but looks warm, and, most importantly finishes in a zone that I think might actually be near where we end up:

12z ICON rolling now...

Looks pretty dreadful to me. 

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43 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM again turns very messy with troughing remaining nearby as the U.K. again ends up in no mans land. The Scandinavian high doesn’t influence us such as some previous runs with it only really benefiting the far north east of the country. Again high precip totals anywhere south of Manchester with many seeing 40-90mm+.Maybe only on day then does the pattern look more promising? 

At least the initial trough sinks through quicker on all the runs this morning, but as you say still the potential for big rainfall totals for the South.

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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

And what about the thoughts of our own @Tamara and @Singularity, who don’t support your theory? If you actually gave a balanced view in your posts, you might get a bit less stick. I am NOT saying you are wrong, but your posts come across like it’s a done deal, which it isn’t. Then you go liking posts from people that write the whole month off, or in some cases the next 6 weeks!  Not trying to pick an argument, but just trying to move things on a bit.

With respect to those posters, I've read some of their stuff in winter that predicts change to colder conditions - and those changes have never come.

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Mark, that is the way the GEM is headed, here at T180, and it looks more believable than the other dross we've seen tonight:

And I think I'd ignore Matt Hugo, he talks round objects about AAM, in my opinion. It isn't a subject that can be told in a tweet.

 

Why is the GEM any more believable ? It's not the best model by any stretch.

Matt Hugo is a respected meteorologist and his thoughts reflect at the very least that once we are in this pattern it's very difficult to get out of.

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I know this is not the thread to discuss but the BBC forecast for the week ahead thats just been issued backs up the very wet scenarios being offered by GFS & ECM, some very unpleasant charts shown. Comments were more around the uncertainty of where the heaviest rain would be not would it be settled or unsettled 

Yes just seen it, I'm sure warnings will be issued when the areas likely to be impacted most are firmed up - but I'm certain the Midlands will be bang in line as we were in 2012.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS brings some very pleasant warm temps by day 10 onwards with plenty of days into the low to mid 20s...

Sorry, just thinking aloud... 

I'm afriad that is pure 'FI' we have to look at the reality facing us this week.

 

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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Weren’t the models predicting some 100mm totals for today and yesterday at some point? That hasn’t happened. Be wary of precipitation charts at that kind of range as minute changes in the formation and track of the LP will have huge impacts on the projected totals.

If they were for todaythen that was never going to happen from a northerly set-up. This is quite different and brings back memories of this time last year - nearly 3 days of continuous rain and max temps of 12C.

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3 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well what horrendous output so far this evening. Ukmo at t144 looks like it wants to keep in under low pressure set up. Gfs looks very wet next week with us under cool conditions. Dare I say chilly if anyone is stuck under those rain bands. Certainly after Tuesday it’s pretty much a right off for several days perhaps longer. 

Yes we are going to see the weather making the news in low lying areas I fear - the last thing people need right now. 

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Plenty of rain around on the 12z gfs. 2-4 inches in 10 days in a quite a few areas.

Yes some horrendous totals - not surprising as we will have slow moving fronts for around 5 consecutive days. 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS gets some really warm uppers in by day 8/9 with temps into the mid 20s ...

Very unusual setup ..

But if your stuck under the rain band then projected temps of that sort end up being 16/17.

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The only plus point is that it's once again synoptically different from the previous runs, offering a little hope that a better solution could occur but the key point for me is that at T144 we have the models agreeing on significant blocking across N Scandinavia and that's never going to mean settled weather here.

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As usual, once poor charts have appeared as the lilkely solution, things go from bad to worse very quickly. A lot of rain on the GFS as this coming week as the trough hangs around. The UKMO gives a respite at T144 but the next system is heading straight for the UK off the Atlantic.

And there is no 'warmth' to be seen.

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3 minutes ago, MATT said:

Icon the 1st one out of the blocks, and the first one to be flushed down the lav.. Trough City Central. 

Yes, troughs have nowhere to go with big blocking to the NE, very wet in the West particularly.