MikeC53
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Posts posted by MikeC53
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Great set of 12z runs, I think a lot of people were expecting Spring and early Summer to see lots of Atlantic/Greenland blocking setting up but it just hasn't happened.
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Basically there has been a +NAO from early Dec right through to now and no sign of it changing anytime soon.
To add insult to injury it now looks like uppers of -7 and negative dews are unlikely to deliver away from the higher hills mon/tue with meto/bbc now progging rain and sleet at 300m locally.
Yes, i think this winter has seen the sort of thing that we have had over the last 30 years racheted up.
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Was talking to a friend and having a general moan about things and he said 'well at least it hasn't been a bad winter'. I said 'no, it's been ****ing s***'
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
00z runs promoting a snowy polar maritime flow for the NW
Most likely will involve elevation..
Nearer the time this often gets pushed further North though.
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5 hours ago, Timmytour said:
I so hope for a lovely cold and snowy period in winter.
Never mind reality, I don't think I've ever known a winter like this where even the models in FI have offered so little promise.
Maybe the models are improving?
Nonetheless, on those occasions where they do offer up the prospect of something mode Narnia-like, I find the recent history leading up to what they are portraying plays a big part in their credibility. To me, if models start portraying WAA invading Greenland when it's failed to get anywhere near it in the previous weeks, they are not to be believed, Like the experience of 1947 tells us, something magical can happen out of the mildest of winter periods. But that winter was not without its previous cold spells, arising from temporarily successful attempts to introduce a pattern of weather that eventually established itself.
These potential cold spells the models have flirted with, as far and few between as they have modeled this winter, do not stand up to scrutiny when you consider they portray something that has consistently failed to materialize to any degree in the previous weeks, let alone to the 'tipping point' degree of what would drastically change the weather on a long term basis.Once I thought the existence of so much high pressure consistently around gave us a shot of a real winter. It just fell in the wrong place. Nothing to do with climate change or anything. The UK has had plenty such winters in the past and will again in the future.
I think we might get a couple of very late cold snaps this time around, but I see this winter as stuck in a rut. What we have is what we will have more or less for the majority of it.
C'est la vie. Next year will be very very different!
I used to think that when we had these sorts of winters in the late eighties, but the next year often proved to be the same.
We will probably see this sort of pattern set in by the end of November and one of the experts will say 'this was always going to be a backloaded winter'.....
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Incredible figures MB, is GP still expecting a cold February ?
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28 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
But the GFS got it more right than the others when it backtracked
Sod’s law that any changes to mild seem to verify more than changes to cold. Maybe the models need fixing or something.
Yes, the model that shows milder often wins the day, not that what was promised by even the best model for cold was anything to shout about anyway.
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Well victory for the GFS despite what a lot of people were saying yesterday, and moreover, the outlook is just as bad as it's been for the whole winter.
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Horrific GFS, little more to be said.
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Dreadful stuff this morning, we can't even get a toppler and with bad news from the Strat and the METO continuing with the mild Feb theme, it looks time to draw stumps on this shocker of a winter. Has there been any update from GP ?
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32 minutes ago, shaky said:
Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!
Yes and the significant thing is that the METO are going for the Atlantic taking back to control so even if a mid lat High comes again, a sinker looks very likely and that's more time wasted.
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Well the best charts of the winter so far at around day 9, although that is of course not saying much and we know that Azores Lows often don't materialise and HP often ends up further South.
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6 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:
My thoughts tonight are we have been in a waiting game for winter to fully start. Ecm looks very interesting to me day 8/9/10 it's got a look about it that's strange. But my feeling is the deep cold in the North West is primed. I really think this winter will end very cold and snowy. From early Feb onwards is my prediction. Regards to next week's cool North westerly it's just a cool down to the main event. You heard it here first.
I think you are dreaming on the evidence we are seeing this morning. Ongoing dreadful output.
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1 hour ago, matty40s said:
First half of June was VERY memorable, Rained for days up to the 2pm on sat 8th that we got married, managed to stay dry but cold and windy for our outdoor reception, then we cruised off on the boat to spend the next 5 days moored up as torrential rain continued.
We had a great time by the way.
Yes dreadful stuff and indicators suggest that we will see Northern blocking in May and June again.
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More dreadful output for winter fans, and the teleconnections are not supportive of any change. I think it was Glacier Point who suggested a change in early Feb, but I would think that is off the table now.
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36 minutes ago, Nick L said:
I think this non-descript week may just help 2019/20 clinch the title of worst winter I've ever had the misfortune to experience, unless February pulls a miracle out of its backside.
Yes, plenty run it close over the last 30 years but if the model projections are correct and this rumbles on through Feb as all indicators suggest, then it will be the worst ever.
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30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Horrific.
For the 1st time since 2004 when i joined TWO i am not even bothering to look at WZ in mid Jan.
Have a look at the chart i just posted in the moan thread.
Coldies, we have major problems!!
As poor as it's ever been, and that's saying something. Hopes of change for Feb were never really founded on much and they are fading away now as the PV barrels on.
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45 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
But the "younger generation" don't issue these cold alerts - that's the fault of the met office, which isn't run by youngsters from what I can see.
You're blaming the wrong people for your frustrations!
But it isn't cold for January, it's absolutely pathetic.
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Day 10..
Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum.
Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.
Yes another glorious winter in Iberia for the most part, the Spanish Met made a great call last winter. Not sure what they said for this winter, but it has been much the same down there.
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Terrible ECM which takes us to the turn of the month. If we get to the positions shown then it's at least 10 days from there before there could be any favourable shift from the pattern
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40 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Not seen a single snowflake here this Winter, yet parts of Spain's Costa Blanca has seen heavy snow, just a few miles inland from its coast, and not all at height either!
I'd say for Europe as a whole when you look at the anomalies that Central Europe and Southern Scandinavia have seen it must rank as one of the least snowiest European winters ever. We've not even seen topplers that miss us and go into Germany.
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15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming.
Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.
Yes, I think Greece and that area is the only part of Europe not to be anomalously warm this winter.
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- Popular Post
- Popular Post
12 hours ago, tight isobar said:feel like free to scroll through all available data. .its a high format probability! !..
via many supports! !
to which some myself have already posted! !!(some)
this isn't 1 operational model going off on 1. ...
? I'll have some of what you're on. I'm sure you are walking in a virtual winter wonderland.
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Was looking over on TWO and it's now 24 years since the last mid winter easterly.
As my username indicates, I'm 66 years old and in the first 36 years of my life there was probably only one winter like this one. In the last 30 years there have been about 10.
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Both the GFS and UKMO centring the High further East on their runs at day 6, so ECM will be interesting.