MikeC53
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Posts posted by MikeC53
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3 minutes ago, Tamara said:
The commentary on here is poorer to be honest than anything that NWP suggests
Far too much absurd overreaction to this trough cutting off and disrupting south through the middle/latter part of the coming week. It has already been pointed out more than once that this theme has ebbed and flowed since early in the week (i.e at least 4 days) so it is hard to know why so many are acting surprised and/or disappointed about it. Especially as it was something of a note of interest initially in terms of possibilities thereafter! Quite bizarre!
From my own point of view little has changed over the week, other than yesterday it did seem possible that a faster track to warmer air might have been possible with the Atlantic ridge splitting and allowing a downstream ridge to develop ahead of the trough - thus allowing the warmer air to back westwards more quickly. However, from the outset, about three posts back, some doubts were expressed about the eastward progression of the Atlantic ridge prior to mid month and hence the full retrogression and re-set route always seemed more likely..
The diagnostic - i.e the balance of the completion of the retrogressive phase (as detailed to exhaustion already) and when momentum from upstream might start to return - thus re-setting a trough in the Atlantic vs ridging across Scandinavia was always going to be a fine margin and this margin is far from decided yet - following the trough heading north to south through the UK. That theme is still advertised - it is simply that the numerical models have not decided where the new trough wavelength sits vs the warmer continental air to the east.
Better not to agitate over intra day operational details, and most especially surface details, which frankly are a particular lottery up to 5 to 10 days out at the moment and from my own perspective seems like a complete waste of time as well as quite unnecessary and self inflicted stress, That includes any "demonising" of any computer model which are simply making calculations around a broad theme that has actually been consistent for several days - it is simply micro scale details which are determining how the process evolves and for a small island like this one these make subtle but quite significant short term variations from one output to another and from one numerical model to another.
Rather than trying to see too many trees in the wood, stand back and cast an eye generally around the wood first, and then pick out the trees one by one. One corner at a time rather taking on the next three at once and expecting immediate answers.
In summary, and based on attempted objectivity (not optimism) still no reason at all not to expect a warming trend once this sinking trough equation is dealt with. In fact the mid month period onwards holds a lot of interest for low pressure to finally end up sitting to our west and south west and sending up some very warm and humid air as it pushes up against omnipresent high pressure to the NE. That, representing the point where the retrogressive phase completes and the trough is re-set to the west.
Really seems counter intuitive to let this sinking trough overtake the greater perspective and then just extrapolate outwards c/o baseless pessimism. It isn't actually about being either optimistic or pessimistic - just trying to stop believing that is the models that lead the signals....
I think the first bolded statement is unfair - people are commenting on the NWP as they are see it and nobody has posted inaccurate charts.
The second statement simply is not borne out by some of the modelling which we are looking at - low pressure gets in before any warming from the South or East can occur.
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3 minutes ago, Alderc said:
GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.
Tomorrow 7th - 15C
Monday 8th - 15C
Tuesday 9th - 14C
Wednesday 10th - 14C
Thursday 11th - 14C
Friday 12th - 15C
Saturday 13th - 11C
Sunday 14th - 14C
Monday 15th - 15C
Tuesday 16th - 16C
Wednesday 17th -18C
Thursday 18th - 14C
Friday 19th -18C
Saturday 20th - 14C
Monday 21st -17C
Yes I just looked at the same for here - below average to cold and as MB says, heat building over NE Europe generally means poor conditions for us.
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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:
GFS really is like this mornings GEM run, worryingly like the GEM its trying to link the western Russian high with Greenland heights which ECM is also trying to do towards the end of its run. Again this not a pattern we want as it's prone to locked in. Either way I think its fair to say the changes of the 'Front loaded' summer that were being talked about through late May are significantly reducing.
Yes, a dreadful overall pattern emerging on all models that go out to day 10 - with the coolest and wettest weather in Europe reserved for the UK and Ireland of course.
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Well the GFS 06z now has the trough albeit as a weak looking feature and arrives at a similar conculsion at day 7 as the 0z run did - the Atlantic returning and generally cool and unsettled. So different from the ECM at the same range and that's only the consolation at the moment.
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2 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:
Never gonna happen. Be middle ground. Not one model as got a grip what's gonna happen. Get ready for a bumpy ride this evening. Watch gfs be correct lol
Iy happened in 2012 and 2007 - it could easily do so again.
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The ECM is not quite as bad as last night but would still see some large rainfall totals for the South.
Interestingly the UKMO is making less of the trough dropping down on this run and is closer to the GFS.
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
No I don't think it does,
Break, internet lapse
And seen your latest post. What is the point, this stuff hasn't even come close to happening, given uncertainty, and even if it did it would most likely be a glancing low that might give some thundery potential, some heavy rain, or significant heat. Can we wait and see, please?
Mike I'm just taking the UKMO/ECM at face value, the trough is trapped within the high pressure areas around - starting at just T96. There is nowhere for it to go, hence the ECM rain totals which are a disaster for low lying areas in the red and orange areas shown in the image posted.
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
Thanks for posting that @Daniel*
I know @Alderc cops some stick for being a doom monger, but his thoughts/opinions on the op run were spot on tonight. It isn’t warm, it’s just cloudy with slow or non moving bands of rain getting stuck in the same place for days on end leading to 75-100mm of rain in a week in a large chunk of the country. Flooding inevitable from that sort of set up.Low pressure is fine, but if it gets stuck like that op run then it won’t be pleasant. Thankfully it’s on the extreme side!
Yes well done to Chris and a few others - the old maxim of the worst outcome for the UK - even if the chances look very slim from all model possibilities - lands again whether it is winter or summer.
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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Erm
Yes, for here it brings back the dreadful prospect of another 2012.
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31 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
If we thought the weather was wet last few days well its nothing like what the ecm is forecasting for england and wales from wednesday next week!!plenty of rain for all of england and wales!!i mean ecm and ukmo could still be wrong but if i was a betting man i most certainly would not be putting any money on gfs at all now!!the best thing about this is we know the gfs is gona backtrack and just watchin it implode over the next few runs shall once again be quite something!!
Yes, I think as was said this morning if it can go wrong for the UK it will. As warmth never gets to build it just means slow moving rain bands for several days with some incredible totals possible for Central areas. Note that later on the ECM mean is even worse than the OP.
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Well fair play to the UKMO, GFS on it's own tonight. Potential for some huge rainfall totals for central England/southern parts of N England especially.
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Incredible differences between UKMO and GFS, there can't be a halfway house solution either !
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Thanks MWB, a 10% chance of things going wrong for the UK usually materialises so 30% is near banker for belly up !
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Excellent 06z out to day 9
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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
The 144 hour pressure is around 1007mb on the ukmo - the lowest ecm ensemble members get down to that on the 11th too. Might be similar in a fashion!
Yes you're correct, the 12z runs will be interesting as the UKMO is clearly given a very low possibility by the ECM & GEFS.
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50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
ECM op is a bit generous again this morning and goes outside of the ensemble boundaries. Maybe we will eventually settle on a halfway house between this and the UKMO outcome?
Not really sure that any would be like the UKMO at T120 or even T144 though looking at that.
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48 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Lot of rain to come. Let’s hope nobody gets flooded out of their homes like they were earlier in the year.
No guarantee of that at all this morning from the output.
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30 minutes ago, Eugene said:
Very cool spell ahead from today until next Tuesday at least, a 6 day period with temps in Central England 15C or lower, potentially very cold on Saturday with 10C/11C Max's possible. So much for the one day of 15C some were very confident of just a few days ago.
Certainly a very poor GFS this morning, no doubt Alderc and the Cambridge bloke wlll be all over it later with their apocolyptic predictions. I fancy ECM will be better.
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32 minutes ago, Zak M said:
Anyway, back to the models -
Most models are starting to shift the plunge a bit to the east. This means that we will still see temperatures below average, but afterwards most models are showing high pressure dominating again
06z GFS is starting to come out - we will see what happens next.
That nearly always happen, the set-up was quite complicated and people were assuming a very cold northerly before the Low had even formed. I think in this instance the UKMO with it's T144 limit has been the best model to follow.
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Yes the Crewe fella will be lovng this run, hopefully an outlier and fine margins took it down this route from day 7.
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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
A certain well known forecaster was constantly posting on twitter about how the middle and second half of May would be much more unsettled....that never happened. I guess if you keep saying the same thing, eventually you’ll be right.
Hard to know exactly where we end up. There’s still big differences at day 5 at the moment, so later on is difficult to say with accuracy.
Yes, if it were winter we would not be confident of 'retrogression' of a High at T240 plus hours so there is no cause to now either...the GFS/ECM/GEM are all fine at day 9 with a low height anomaly close to Iberia.
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5 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Decent support for it turning more unsettled towards the turn of the month within the 18z GEFS
Make the most of the next week is my advice, should be some really nice weather to enjoy.
I think you have been talking about Atlantic/Greenland Highs and unsettled weather for the UK since early April and we are now at the end of May so I'm happy to see the unsettled conditions remain in 'FI'
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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:
T216 and we are into the high pressure riding over confined heat pump low territory I have been talking about tonight:
If this happens, and I say if because it is 9 days away, like with the GEM, it will lock in a hot month or so, I think.
Edit: T240:
Don't underestimate the importance of that low at the bottom left...
Yes, a low height anomaly to the West of Iberia was a persistent feature during June 2018 and the ECM had it this morning too, let's hope it remains.
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1 minute ago, Bradowl said:
I'm not all that interested in plumes from the South, I'd be happy if day time temperatures were 23 to 25'C all summer.
I'm not a big fan of sleepless sticky nights these plumes bring.
Agree, plumes from the South are usually swiftly followed by wet from the West anyway. Happy to see high pressure on top of us.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
They can John but what Terrier is seeing is what several others are too - once you get that 'over the top' blocking in Summer it means slow moving fronts and a stuck pattern for our locale aka 2007 & 2012.