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MikeC53

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Everything posted by MikeC53

  1. MikeC53
    They can John but what Terrier is seeing is what several others are too - once you get that 'over the top' blocking in Summer it means slow moving fronts and a stuck pattern for our locale aka 2007 & 2012.
  2. MikeC53
    I think the first bolded statement is unfair - people are commenting on the NWP as they are see it and nobody has posted inaccurate charts. The second statement simply is not borne out by some of the modelling which we are looking at - low pressure gets in before any warming from the South or East can occur.
  3. MikeC53
    Yes I just looked at the same for here - below average to cold and as MB says, heat building over NE Europe generally means poor conditions for us.
  4. MikeC53
    Yes, a dreadful overall pattern emerging on all models that go out to day 10 - with the coolest and wettest weather in Europe reserved for the UK and Ireland of course.
  5. MikeC53
    Well the GFS 06z now has the trough albeit as a weak looking feature and arrives at a similar conculsion at day 7 as the 0z run did - the Atlantic returning and generally cool and unsettled. So different from the ECM at the same range and that's only the consolation at the moment.
  6. MikeC53
    Iy happened in 2012 and 2007 - it could easily do so again.
  7. MikeC53
    The ECM is not quite as bad as last night but would still see some large rainfall totals for the South. Interestingly the UKMO is making less of the trough dropping down on this run and is closer to the GFS.
  8. MikeC53
    Mike I'm just taking the UKMO/ECM at face value, the trough is trapped within the high pressure areas around - starting at just T96. There is nowhere for it to go, hence the ECM rain totals which are a disaster for low lying areas in the red and orange areas shown in the image posted.
  9. MikeC53
    Yes well done to Chris and a few others - the old maxim of the worst outcome for the UK - even if the chances look very slim from all model possibilities - lands again whether it is winter or summer.
  10. MikeC53
    Yes, for here it brings back the dreadful prospect of another 2012.
  11. MikeC53
    Yes, I think as was said this morning if it can go wrong for the UK it will. As warmth never gets to build it just means slow moving rain bands for several days with some incredible totals possible for Central areas. Note that later on the ECM mean is even worse than the OP.
  12. MikeC53
    Well fair play to the UKMO, GFS on it's own tonight. Potential for some huge rainfall totals for central England/southern parts of N England especially.
  13. MikeC53
    Incredible differences between UKMO and GFS, there can't be a halfway house solution either !
  14. MikeC53
    Thanks MWB, a 10% chance of things going wrong for the UK usually materialises so 30% is near banker for belly up !
  15. MikeC53
    Excellent 06z out to day 9
  16. MikeC53
    Yes you're correct, the 12z runs will be interesting as the UKMO is clearly given a very low possibility by the ECM & GEFS.
  17. MikeC53
    Not really sure that any would be like the UKMO at T120 or even T144 though looking at that.
  18. MikeC53
    No guarantee of that at all this morning from the output.
  19. MikeC53
    Certainly a very poor GFS this morning, no doubt Alderc and the Cambridge bloke wlll be all over it later with their apocolyptic predictions. I fancy ECM will be better.
  20. MikeC53
    That nearly always happen, the set-up was quite complicated and people were assuming a very cold northerly before the Low had even formed. I think in this instance the UKMO with it's T144 limit has been the best model to follow.
  21. MikeC53
    Yes the Crewe fella will be lovng this run, hopefully an outlier and fine margins took it down this route from day 7.
  22. MikeC53
    Yes, if it were winter we would not be confident of 'retrogression' of a High at T240 plus hours so there is no cause to now either...the GFS/ECM/GEM are all fine at day 9 with a low height anomaly close to Iberia.
  23. MikeC53
    I think you have been talking about Atlantic/Greenland Highs and unsettled weather for the UK since early April and we are now at the end of May so I'm happy to see the unsettled conditions remain in 'FI'
  24. MikeC53
    Yes, a low height anomaly to the West of Iberia was a persistent feature during June 2018 and the ECM had it this morning too, let's hope it remains.
  25. MikeC53
    Agree, plumes from the South are usually swiftly followed by wet from the West anyway. Happy to see high pressure on top of us.
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