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MikeC53

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Everything posted by MikeC53

  1. MikeC53
    Both the GFS and UKMO centring the High further East on their runs at day 6, so ECM will be interesting.
  2. MikeC53
    Great set of 12z runs, I think a lot of people were expecting Spring and early Summer to see lots of Atlantic/Greenland blocking setting up but it just hasn't happened.
  3. MikeC53
    Yes, i think this winter has seen the sort of thing that we have had over the last 30 years racheted up.
  4. MikeC53
    Was talking to a friend and having a general moan about things and he said 'well at least it hasn't been a bad winter'. I said 'no, it's been ****ing s***'
  5. MikeC53
    Nearer the time this often gets pushed further North though.
  6. MikeC53
    I used to think that when we had these sorts of winters in the late eighties, but the next year often proved to be the same. We will probably see this sort of pattern set in by the end of November and one of the experts will say 'this was always going to be a backloaded winter'.....
  7. MikeC53
    Incredible figures MB, is GP still expecting a cold February ?
  8. MikeC53
    Yes, the model that shows milder often wins the day, not that what was promised by even the best model for cold was anything to shout about anyway.
  9. MikeC53
    Well victory for the GFS despite what a lot of people were saying yesterday, and moreover, the outlook is just as bad as it's been for the whole winter.
  10. MikeC53
    Horrific GFS, little more to be said.
  11. MikeC53
    Dreadful stuff this morning, we can't even get a toppler and with bad news from the Strat and the METO continuing with the mild Feb theme, it looks time to draw stumps on this shocker of a winter. Has there been any update from GP ?
  12. MikeC53
    Yes and the significant thing is that the METO are going for the Atlantic taking back to control so even if a mid lat High comes again, a sinker looks very likely and that's more time wasted.
  13. MikeC53
    Well the best charts of the winter so far at around day 9, although that is of course not saying much and we know that Azores Lows often don't materialise and HP often ends up further South.
  14. MikeC53
    I think you are dreaming on the evidence we are seeing this morning. Ongoing dreadful output.
  15. MikeC53
    Yes dreadful stuff and indicators suggest that we will see Northern blocking in May and June again.
  16. MikeC53
    More dreadful output for winter fans, and the teleconnections are not supportive of any change. I think it was Glacier Point who suggested a change in early Feb, but I would think that is off the table now.
  17. MikeC53
    Yes, plenty run it close over the last 30 years but if the model projections are correct and this rumbles on through Feb as all indicators suggest, then it will be the worst ever.
  18. MikeC53
    As poor as it's ever been, and that's saying something. Hopes of change for Feb were never really founded on much and they are fading away now as the PV barrels on.
  19. MikeC53
    But it isn't cold for January, it's absolutely pathetic.
  20. MikeC53
    Yes another glorious winter in Iberia for the most part, the Spanish Met made a great call last winter. Not sure what they said for this winter, but it has been much the same down there.
  21. MikeC53
    Terrible ECM which takes us to the turn of the month. If we get to the positions shown then it's at least 10 days from there before there could be any favourable shift from the pattern
  22. MikeC53
    I'd say for Europe as a whole when you look at the anomalies that Central Europe and Southern Scandinavia have seen it must rank as one of the least snowiest European winters ever. We've not even seen topplers that miss us and go into Germany.
  23. MikeC53
    Yes, I think Greece and that area is the only part of Europe not to be anomalously warm this winter.
  24. MikeC53
    ? I'll have some of what you're on. I'm sure you are walking in a virtual winter wonderland.
  25. MikeC53
    Was looking over on TWO and it's now 24 years since the last mid winter easterly. As my username indicates, I'm 66 years old and in the first 36 years of my life there was probably only one winter like this one. In the last 30 years there have been about 10.
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