al78
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Posts posted by al78
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22 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
Yeah, but December 2010 was lovely and seasonal. It was however, brutally cold.
It was seasonal if it had occurred in another country. The coldest December in a century can hardly be described as seasonal for the UK in the same way that 40C in summer is not seasonal for the UK. The UK does not have a continental climate.
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5 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Think that this year the summer has been your typically English kind of summer really, typically English kind of summers aren't very good. Last year's summer was more the exception rather than the rule and the very quiet Atlantic made a lot of difference to it.
A typical English summer does not encompoass a record breaking warm June and a record breaking wet July in places. Lets just stop deluding ourselves that this summer has been normal.
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23 minutes ago, CharlieBear9 said:
Yep, a changeable month virtually throughout here as well.
Changeable normally includes some settled weather. July had the same weather throughout, unsettled for the entire month. The same type of weather for the whole month is not what I would call changeable, it was more like a rainy season.
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36 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
By CET standards, sure. But there's way more to summery weather than mean temps. Wind chill, cloud cover, rain...all of which were above average (and well above, in some parts) across the country.
Also compound this with the fact that the CET incorporates nighttime temps too...so, mild nights will paint a picture of a "warmer July", despite the reality being...nobody cares that's it 15c at 3am as opposed to 12c, when the daytime maxes are 17c and overcast with a drizzle.
There is also a long term warming trend so a -0.3C anomaly would be greater in magnitude without the warming trend.
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1 hour ago, Gnasher said:
July was 0.3c below average. That is normal. It is normal to have a hot June and a cooler july.
Climatologically July and August are the warmest months so I'd question how normal it is to have a hot June and a cooler July.
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On 19/08/2023 at 13:23, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Thank stained glass window it's nearly over. This has been the worst year ever!
Time to look forward to Christmas and the snowmageddon 15 day GFS forecasts.
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18 hours ago, MP-R said:
Amazing winter synoptics. What a dumping that would be!
Two days of cold rain and sleet with temps +2C here in Horsham. Same as a day I remember in February 2011 (or maybe 2010) where it rained all day with temperatures between 1 and 2C
21 hours ago, Metwatch said:Horrific GFS 12z for next Friday and Saturday. Some of central / eastern areas stuck under near constant rain for nearly 2 days, amounting to 2 - 3 inches, as a trough remains stationary just east of Norfolk.
Seems to be on its own for now, as ICON and GEM moves that low away to avoid the worst of the conditions sticking around.
I see the UK bank holiday parameterisation in the model is working properly.
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7 hours ago, mike57 said:
I think this is going to a much more significant thing than just a few heat haters moving north in the UK. Could parts of southern Europe become uninhabitable, drought and increasing temperatures are going to put pressure on resources, and there comes a point where daytime temperatures are going to severely limit outdoor activities during the summer.
More serious is if parts of the sub-tropics become uninhabitable where a lot of people currently live and where much of the world's food is grown.
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5 hours ago, Andrew Hurcomb said:
What has amazed me this year is the we have only one dry spell of over 5 days. All year! You have to go back to early June and late May when we had over 5 days dry. We seem to get 2 maybe 3 days dry then showers or longer spells of rain. Continually. Can remember when you get a high sat over us for at least a week and be nice during the summer. I hope autumn bucks the trend this year.
850mb geopotential height anomaly comparison between May and July says it all:
The anomaly maps are virtually an inverse of each other. I don't recall the last time I saw such a stark difference between two months so close together (although I admit I haven't looked at very many comparisons).
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1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
This is the issue. It's not about wanting heatwaves and "extreme heat". It just hasn't felt summery, at all, outside of that small window.
The key benefit of this season for me is usability. Longer days and warmer mornings and evenings means you have so much more scope to do things outdoors comfortably, whether it be a beer garden, Al fresco dinner, camping or simply walking the dog.
The mornings and evenings from early July until now have been actively chilly, sometimes even cold. Wednesday and Thursday just gone have been the only 2 days since that warm July 8th, where it felt summery all day and you can sit outside in just a t shirt in the morning and evening.
Which sums up summer 2023 - a severe lack of comfortable and usable summery conditions. Bear in mind...this was the first July since 1979 that didn't record a single day at 30c or over. I mean, we struggled to even get a above 20c for much of the month!
I don't want heatwaves, I'd be happy with 21-25C with sunshine which is a good temperature for doing outdoor work and is sufficient in high summer to feel the warmth due to the strength of the sun. The issue this summer for me is the lack of settled weather on the weekends. I was away for a couple of weeks in July but aside from that, ever since early July there has been some rain on every weekend I think even when the forecast was for a dry Saturday or Sunday. Classic this morning, I had volunteered to assist with some work at my allotment site and didn't bring a coat with me as I recalled Sunday was forecast to be dry. As soon as I got there the heavens opened. This was in addition to the soaking I got when cycling home from town on Saturday morning. When you have a Mon-Fri day job and every weekend you get dumped on with rain it gets very frustrating, and we have very little of the meteorological summer left so I am hoping for a warm dry September (but please no stupid 30+C temperatures and tropical nights).
1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:First July to fail recording 30c since Gary Numan and Boomtown Rats were having hits?
I thought 1987 failed to reach 30c in July that year.
Didn't July 2007 just barely fail to reach 30C?
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:
Looking like 30 degrees plus moving in by the weekend and with very warm to hot weather in the proceeding days wouldn't be surprised too see 34C to 35C registered in the south east.
Ah the joy of the UK's modern weather, from a full on rainy season to a blow torch with minimal happy medium in between. Is it really asking too much to get average conditions these days?
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47 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
Allotment gardening is hard work. Do you not have taps on your site? They help but it’s still difficult when there’s a prolonged dry period. Too much rain is also very bad. The blocked patterns of recent years aren’t helpful for food growers or gardeners.
I have taps on site and I have four 250L water butts and two 100L butts for harvesting rainwater. Even when that lot is completely full, a month like May 2018 or August 2022 will see me get through that in three or four weeks then it is a case of getting there a couple of evenings a week with watering cans which takes considerable time and effort, and is one reason I don't really like prolonged periods (i.e. weeks) of warm/hot dry weather with minimal rain.
When it comes to the other extreme of rain nearly every day and low sunshine levels like this July, molluscs are the primary threat to my crops. Nematodes have limited effect and slug pellets less so. A week or two away on holiday is enough for the damp soil loving perennial weeds to run riot and in the worst case it is almost a Herculean effort to get the plot back under control. I may try taking on a half plot which I think should be manageable outside of repeated weekends of poor weather.
Today has been a fairly decent day but the sunshine rationing is still in effect going by the infill.
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I get the impression that here in W Sussex, whilst the last six weeks have been poor, it has not been the worst affected area in the country and it could theoretically be a lot worse.
Having said that, yesterday morning when walking to work in London I was wearing two layers and long sleeves and I felt chilly at 9:30am. That is not something I normally experience until at least the middle of September. Today is so far much better but again, the low pressure is forecast to come barrelling in over the coming weekend. I have decided to throw the towel in with my allotment as I cannot cultivate it properly if we are going to keep getting blocked weather patterns with nearly two months of poor weekends in the height of the growing season, or the other extreme of last year, weeks of no rain and uncomfortably hot.-
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Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:
Probably because it's been a cool July argh Is that why you guys were cloudy in May whilst we had wall to wall sunshine in the west because the wind was blowing from the east off the North sea?
Cool, cloudy and windy due to frequent low pressure systems. May was a month of two halves here in Sussex. The first half was like a can't-really-be-bothered attempt at some nice late spring weather, the second half was warm and dry.
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2 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:
There is in the west, honestly not sure how much more I can take of this cloudy cool weather, We've had 6 weeks of this and a lot of unusable weekends, enough already! We had brief sun for 30 minutes and it just lifts the mood so much. Can someone please tell me the rest of August and September is going to be sunny and warm please
From what I have seen it looks like changeable weather is most likely through the rest of this month although unlikely to be as wet as July. No sign of any extremes, more a gradual regression to the mean so occasional brief warm sunny periods interspersed with showers and/or frontal rain.
Met Office long range outlook:
"Sunday 13 Aug - Tuesday 22nd Aug
Further unsettled weather is expected early in the period, bringing showers, some heavy and thundery, across the UK. Western regions are likely to see the greatest rainfall, but drier and brighter conditions are possible, the southeast of England having the greatest chance of this. Generally breezy across the country with temperatures for many around average for the time of year, perhaps slightly below in wet or windy conditions. The unsettled conditions are likely to continue through the middle of August, though western areas may see a reduction in the number of showers compared to earlier in the period. There is a low probability of spells of heavy rain and strong winds affecting southern areas towards the end of the period while temperatures are largely expected to stay around average.
Wednesday 23rd Aug - Wednesday 6th Sep
Conditions are likely to remain changeable towards the end of August and into early September. Some extended dry and settled spells are possible, but, overall, there is a slightly higher likelihood that conditions will be wetter than average during the period as opposed to drier. Rainfall is likely to be a mixture of organised frontal rain and showers with some of the showers possibly turning thundery. The potential for fleeting warm or hot spells exists, but in general, temperatures are likely to be around normal, or slightly warmer, for the time of year."
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13 hours ago, markyo said:
There is a lot who have had far far worse Summer conditions than yourself, and i mean vastly worse, by those figures you are lucky this year
Not as bad as - RationalWiki
RATIONALWIKI.ORGThe "not as bad as" fallacy, also known as the fallacy of relative privation,[2] asserts that:"To be good, it is not enough to be better than the worst."
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22 hours ago, Nick L said:
Perhaps that's an exaggeration, although the sun strength and daylight hours are equivalent to mid-April by that point. But my general point still stands. I don't understand why the solitary summer bank holiday is at the dying end of the season. At the very least move one of the cluster of spring bank holidays into mid-summer.
Possibly to encourage an extension of the holiday season and boost tourist trade at a time of the year people are expecting summer is just about over.
20 hours ago, Catbrainz said:What makes a Greenland high a summer killer but a winter dream? I would guess that it makes northerlies more likely and blocks warm air please correct me if I am wrong
It directs the jet stream southward meaning we are on the cold side of it. In winter this opens the doors for intrusions of Arctic air. In summer it means low after low steered across the UK bringing relentless cloud, rain and suppressed temperatures.
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On 04/08/2023 at 07:32, Sunny76 said:
Agree. You adapt better to the very cold weather.
Similar to how people adjust to longer spells of hot and sunny weather.
People don't, the hot and sunny weather almost never lasts long enough to adapt to it before the Atlantic dross comes roaring back in.
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On 03/08/2023 at 23:29, AderynCoch said:
A rubbish year in full. No thanks!
Today was quite sunny here though it clouded over in the evening. Tomorrow doesn't look too bad either.
Disappointing temperatures though. I'm not looking forward to Saturday either!
That was the year someone carelessly drove a car into me when I was cycling to work and I spend seven weeks in hospital. I do remember it getting uncomfortably warm/hot for at least a brief spell around late June or early July.
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On 03/08/2023 at 21:35, Sunny76 said:
Thanks for this. I really don’t want another 2015.
I don't think most people would:
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On 03/08/2023 at 12:48, danm said:
They're all a bunch of wallies. I have zero faith in Labour improving anything either. They're more concerned with virtue signalling and wokery.
Yeah, social injustice doesn't matter at all as long as you are not on the receiving end of it.
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On 03/08/2023 at 12:13, TwisterGirl81 said:
Don't even get me started on councils/governments
you only have to look at the state of pathways and roads with weeds and rubbish due to services being cut to save money and many public bins taken away (more profits for whomever?) I'm all for wildflower patches for bee's but at 42 I'm old enough to remember when towns were looked after a lot more than they are now....I feel like it gave councils an excuse to do less and save on employing staff to do it.....Why don't they have people who have to do community service do it? I would do it myself if It wasn't such a huge job but in any case I do mine and my neighboiurs pathway and plan on planting several scented rose bushes in the public flower bed at the beginning of the road I live in as it's barely upkept by the council. Exeter is a pretty city but has been so let down by the council and looks pretty shabby in places due to this. Weeds have gone wild in the weather we've had the past 5 weeks.
This is what happens when you have two decades of austerity and local authority budgets have been cut to the bone, certain things get neglected.
When it comes to beautification, grass verges and flower tubs around towns and cities sounds like something that could be taken up by local volunteer groups if local authorities don't have the money/can't be bothered.
In any case, the UK is now a country where there seems to be little pride in doing a good job, and people will often do the absolute minimum they can get away with to get the job done, look at pothole repairs for example.
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10 minutes ago, Don said:
They were colder than average but not exceptional or comparable to the likes of 1986 or 1991.
If "proper cold" is defined as exceptional, then what do you expect other than the return period to be measured in decades?
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30 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
How was Jotunheimen btw? I was going to visit that region of Norway last year with my friend but our plans didn't align time-wise to make the trip possible. Did you do any specific hikes? We were looking to do Trolltunga as well (not in Jotunheimen but looks amazing nevertheless).
Superb. It was primarily a guided hut-to-hut treking holiday booked through KE Adventures but with three nights at one hut to climb Galdhopiggen, the highest peak in Norway (which I didn't manage because my legs were fatigued) and a glacier hike. Weather was surprisingly good and very warm on the first day, didn't expect it to be so warm 1000m asl and a degree north of the Shetland islands. The landscape is reminiscent of the Lake District and Scottish highlands, which is not surprising as the geology is the same, but Jotunheimen is scaled up compared to the UK's mountainous regions (the landscape looks vast and massive from high viewpoints) and it has glaciers. The paths are excellent and well marked with periodic red T's painted on rocks although when you start crossing passes/gaining altitude the terrain gets very rocky/bouldery, similar to the Cairngorms above 1000m, which combined with large patches of firm snow left over from the winter means you have to be careful with your footing. I'd recommend a visit, the hut system is really good, it is dormitory-style accommodation (bunk beds and sharing) but all meals are included and taking that into account it is not that expensive.
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Summer 2023 chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Averages smooth out temporal and spatial variance so can be extremely misleading for judging how good or bad a summer has been.
If a summer month had 29 warm and dry days and on the 30th day a MCS dropped six inches of rain, would you call it a wet month?