Justin1705

Listen Mitch, I didn’t mean no harm in saying what I said, and I’m not a professional Met by any stretch of the imagination. It’s just frustrating when the suns been up 2 hours and I’ve seen the workd bust. It’s like a world record. But furthermore keep an eye towards eastAnglia and Home Counties as the trough starts to move through London and the SE hopefully triggering something as it does. however I will personally come here and take it all back if we get a bus* . But I’m confident we should see something just because of the oppressive heat as of late

lol it’s not toxic. The people who are toxic are the depressing negative ones who are here winter spring summer and autumn, calling everything a bust. It’s just not needed. It’s always the same people aswell..... looks like we won’t get snow bust. Not getting storms bust. Ok if that’s the case fine. We can all see that the sky is huge you know boils down to the old saying if you can’t say anything good don’t say it at all, maybe a little controversial right now but it has to be said

Guys you need to stop being so negative. It’s not even 9am and the suns just come out and the trough still hasn’t passed and your calling it a bust. Sorry to be rude but if your being negative don’t post lol. If you actually read the storm forecast. As diurnal heating and Mucape increases it will trigger elevated based storms mid/late morning clearing easy Anglia by late afternoon. It’s not even 9am. LOL chill out and give it till 12z. Your only aloud to call a bust when the troughs passed and nothing happened. This is the exact reason I came of here cos your all so negative PS acc as and cumulus.... looks pretty unstable to me, actually it’s better that it’s now sunny and not all that messy Accas blocking the heat. Give it time you bunch of impatient guys

Not sure why everyone’s using the word bust. Thunderstorms are ment to develop along the line of precipitation, as it is now to oxford area. Between 9z and 12z the trough will pass through. It just depends on har far easy or west it decides to kick off, but precipitation is now building on the south of the band of rain. It’s not a bust it was always going to be hit or miss and a bit later than now ! Patience

Literally watching this grow and bubble by the minute ! 61173515257__EA117C0F-687A-4670-BF6A-AD85474B9295.MOV

View to the E/ SE from havering. Looks as if it’s forming overhead now. As not much movement at all

Some very nice structures to the London area from Essex. Apparently anything this morning will have Little to no precipitation because of the moisture profiles. Classic electrical storm. havering area looking SW

Have a look on sat 24 the cloud tops have been rising in the last 1 hour or so, even in SE England, I expect something to happen after dark, as predicted

Here we are again at this time of the year where we are arguing where the storms will be and whose going to get one. When in reality it’s usually a blow out an no action at all. However today alongside the heat we have had for the past 14 days with no amounts of rain in southern England, we are due something. Tonight is very variable in models some suggesting the famous Kent clipper scenario. Some keeping it confined to Southern coasts and no inland action, some tracking early through central southern England. I’ve attached A few models including the WRF NNM2km model, which shows a large area of thundery rain, potentially A MCS scenario tracking through central southern England and into the midlands. The second model, WRF- ARW, Ilsupports more of a SE confined risk for any storm structures starting with a late evening Kent clipper situation (well at least it will make landfall )tracking N/NW through Essex and dying as it moves into less unstable air (typically for me the highest likely scenario for tonight) My third model I’m analysing and using to forecast myself for what may happen tonight is the biased option, a Calais light show, with storms veering E/NE towards Holland and into the North Sea ( a situation that happens quite a lot may I say, especially in weaker set ups) which means could also be an outcome. For now I’m going to sit back, spark the barbecue and leave the models and stop watching the precipitation radar ever 10 mins until around 8/9pm and see where we are then, as always with these setups it’s a nowcast situation and all the models in the world cannot predict the exact track and exact behaviours of any thunderstorms or cluster cells that do form. So fingers crossed we have a light show tonight, not just for Southerners but for people on the midlands and wales aswell, be something different to look at.

Loads of towering cumulus in the South Essex area,

There seems to be some high level instability this morning, opposite to yesterday with clear blue skies. Hopefully this bodes well for this afternoon. Cape levels in the SE of England will be a little bit higher than yesterday and start a little bit earlier by all accounts. Not going to lie this heat the past few days is quite oppressive and does feel like it could go out with a bang