Eagle Eye

Quite often transitioning phases of ENSO or similar spark a significant change and the +VE IOD collapse is no different. Amplified MJO going into phase 6-7 soon and that could well have a significant response by mid February here. For now, the best we're looking at is the rising GLAAM and phase 5 ish response. However, the +VE IOD collapse has aided the potential for a larger MJO-GLAAM tropical and subtropical forcing for that mid-month ish potential. Wouldn't be surprised if we saw a long lasting Scandi high signal with the +VE NAO meaning nothing with the late Winter MJO 6-7 response signal and high GLAAM, that vortex is pesky to shift but not impossible to block. Scandi high being one of the better blockers I can think of other than a Scandi-Iceland dipole which I think occurred pre-minor SSW last Winter which was coming out of a -VE IOD phase.

Agreed, in fact the lack of a significant EHF response that occurs long after a proper SSWE shows that. Normally you have - VE EHF lasting 40 days post ssw, peaking at day 10-15. This - VE EHF response is sort of a sharp yet weak looking return to the Strat state peaking around what, day 5-7 ish? Before surface forcing can take over again. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5017913

Agreed, in fact the lack of a significant EHF response that occurs long after a proper SSWE shows that. Normally you have - VE EHF lasting 40 days post ssw, peaking at day 10-15. This - VE EHF response is sort of a sharp yet weak looking return to the Strat state peaking around what, day 5-7 ish? Before surface forcing can take over again.

I've seen a fair few people a few weeks ago saying if the major warming had happened we'd have had a Greenland high when it was slowly dissapearing off the models for a bit. When in reality the minor warming was favouring that, it's just that by pulling the Canadian vortex east it did also destroy its own part creation. A major warming would've been more favourable of course.

Don't want to brag but I do ha ha. I noticed that it could well have been and that blaming the minor warming for not affecting the surface was just wrong. The reflection it onset was a large reflection and perhaps either strengthened or caused it when I was looking back at the pattern. Always happy to spot something by myself fully and appear to be right.

I'll be using the 12Z mean because I can't be bothered for the 18Z one to fully roll out except for the reanalysis. It appears to me that the combined reflection, MJO phase 1 and high GLAAM led to our eventual pattern but the late strengthening of the S.D. of the phasing and the wave reflection being late to the party meant it was delayed quite significantly looking at the pattern. I remember it was modelled to be around the early part of January then the GFS picked up on the signal to delay it for a week or so late December for some reason. The actual response makes sense, whilst a delayed response and hence the phase 2 response quickly forced the pattern towards a zonal disposition despite the slightly favourable momentum perhaps built-up over the north Atlantic though it was falling, I suspect. As we move towards phase 2 and 3 over the Indian Ocean and an between phase 4, the zonal pattern is favoured and that can be hard to not get stuck with for a while. Especially as the Greenland pattern seems to be moving towards a complete flip which is harder to get rid of than a high there. As you can see there is some forcing for the potential east Scandi high type that could be forced later on into the output however, it's still favourable for a zonal flow because there's not much energy going into actually forcing it polewards. So, we'll probably stay more zonal with a loaded Greenland pattern and no mid-Atlantic ridge either. Then, as we move out of phases 2,3 and 4's response, we go towards a phase 5-6 phase supportive for rising GLAAM and the tropospheric forcing poleward to displace andor separate the zonal jet becomes a possibility both in MJO and GLAAM responses aiding poleward forcing of a RWT in certain areas. I suspect what we're seeing now towards the end of the charts. That appears to be helping the weakening of the Greenland high signal w/+VE anomalies leaking over the north and once that +VE wave exits the zonal jet part of the USA w/the rising AAM, it could force towards Greenland stronger than the mean would see it to further weaken the state. Then, the Alaskan ridge becomes more Alaskan centred again and so takes over late January potentially aiding a Greenland high setup proper, which is slightly favoured early-mid February before there's no real signal at all but that's quite far off to be that bold and it could well be a Scandi block instead. So as we go towards that phase 6-7 that appears fairly likely, it becomes about how much momentum is input, which at the moment seems to be similar to what forced the Greenland high, then about how the response to that is and when. Will be interesting to see. Also, a very possible Strat driver with an omega block over the Ural area favoured on both phase 6 and 7. The Alaskan ridge losing energy is a possible sign of a displaced vortex over North America or split if that Ural wave can happen, more favourable towards a good zonal response here either reflection or SSW wise. That's a bit of a reach this far out but would be a 4th warming if it did occur according to Simon Lee (1st warming upper Strat based, 2nd being the one that caused the reflection, 3rd being the expected weak major or fairly strong minor warming occurring over the next couple days with little surface response I suspect and 4th being this one if it could happen) and would be impressive to see in and of itself. Then going beyond the rising AAM over the next couple days, there's a weak frictional torque response slightly before another +VE mountain torque event significantly which has been supported on the last few CFS runs, is very possible probably in response to phase 7 and so is that the signal for the +VE EAMT event forcing a very strong Omega block for potential Strat vortex weakening or reversing, very possibly. However, it's a 4 member run and is mostly deviated because the 2 large +VE EAMT events on those members are very significant so it's 50/50. However, does seem that a +VE EAMT event is likely, member 3 has it and member 2 just appears to be slower to move towards it. What would that high orbit GLAAM combine with? A late Winter phase 8 and phase 1 potentially given the MJO seems to be probably going towards them by that point. However, the strength of those phases is quite hard to predict this far in advance. We'll have to see. Winter is far from over yet though. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5017354

I'll be using the 12Z mean because I can't be bothered for the 18Z one to fully roll out except for the reanalysis. It appears to me that the combined reflection, MJO phase 1 and high GLAAM led to our eventual pattern but the late strengthening of the S.D. of the phasing and the wave reflection being late to the party meant it was delayed quite significantly looking at the pattern. I remember it was modelled to be around the early part of January then the GFS picked up on the signal to delay it for a week or so late December for some reason. The actual response makes sense, whilst a delayed response and hence the phase 2 response quickly forced the pattern towards a zonal disposition despite the slightly favourable momentum perhaps built-up over the north Atlantic though it was falling, I suspect. As we move towards phase 2 and 3 over the Indian Ocean and an between phase 4, the zonal pattern is favoured and that can be hard to not get stuck with for a while. Especially as the Greenland pattern seems to be moving towards a complete flip which is harder to get rid of than a high there. As you can see there is some forcing for the potential east Scandi high type that could be forced later on into the output however, it's still favourable for a zonal flow because there's not much energy going into actually forcing it polewards. So, we'll probably stay more zonal with a loaded Greenland pattern and no mid-Atlantic ridge either. Then, as we move out of phases 2,3 and 4's response, we go towards a phase 5-6 phase supportive for rising GLAAM and the tropospheric forcing poleward to displace andor separate the zonal jet becomes a possibility both in MJO and GLAAM responses aiding poleward forcing of a RWT in certain areas. I suspect what we're seeing now towards the end of the charts. That appears to be helping the weakening of the Greenland high signal w/+VE anomalies leaking over the north and once that +VE wave exits the zonal jet part of the USA w/the rising AAM, it could force towards Greenland stronger than the mean would see it to further weaken the state. Then, the Alaskan ridge becomes more Alaskan centred again and so takes over late January potentially aiding a Greenland high setup proper, which is slightly favoured early-mid February before there's no real signal at all but that's quite far off to be that bold and it could well be a Scandi block instead. So as we go towards that phase 6-7 that appears fairly likely, it becomes about how much momentum is input, which at the moment seems to be similar to what forced the Greenland high, then about how the response to that is and when. Will be interesting to see. Also, a very possible Strat driver with an omega block over the Ural area favoured on both phase 6 and 7. The Alaskan ridge losing energy is a possible sign of a displaced vortex over North America or split if that Ural wave can happen, more favourable towards a good zonal response here either reflection or SSW wise. That's a bit of a reach this far out but would be a 4th warming if it did occur according to Simon Lee (1st warming upper Strat based, 2nd being the one that caused the reflection, 3rd being the expected weak major or fairly strong minor warming occurring over the next couple days with little surface response I suspect and 4th being this one if it could happen) and would be impressive to see in and of itself. Then going beyond the rising AAM over the next couple days, there's a weak frictional torque response slightly before another +VE mountain torque event significantly which has been supported on the last few CFS runs, is very possible probably in response to phase 7 and so is that the signal for the +VE EAMT event forcing a very strong Omega block for potential Strat vortex weakening or reversing, very possibly. However, it's a 4 member run and is mostly deviated because the 2 large +VE EAMT events on those members are very significant so it's 50/50. However, does seem that a +VE EAMT event is likely, member 3 has it and member 2 just appears to be slower to move towards it. What would that high orbit GLAAM combine with? A late Winter phase 8 and phase 1 potentially given the MJO seems to be probably going towards them by that point. However, the strength of those phases is quite hard to predict this far in advance. We'll have to see. Winter is far from over yet though.

Good evening everyone.

Thanks though it's my friend staying there not me, wish I was. My grandparents do live in the NW ish though so I'll probably be in here when I go to theirs near Manchester.

Wasn't sure if you count them as NW or far north they seem in between so I've just put them in both as been informed that they're apparently counted as NW so here's my friends pictures from the Lake District where they're staying at the moment.

Would you count the Lake District as far north? If so, that's where my friends staying at the moment and has sent me these.

There have been a lot of near death experiences that describe meeting some angel of sorts, don't think there's many that have a God meeting in them but then again these are near death experiences and then some that haven't with either so it's hard to work out whose making it up and who isn't but I think it shows that about half of scientists believe in a God and that's supposed to be one of the biggest Atheist "groups" of people.

A lot of near death experiences seem to be blissful experiences of people in their "happy places" like ones of people drinking beer watching their sports team, I think it's the difference between lonely and alone, I think after dead you could well be alone but if you're alone and unaware you're alone in a way because you're enjoying something that you enjoy doing forever and instead of it being linked chemically, it's almost spiritual so you just can't not be in a blissful state. However, there's also been some unhappy near death experiences and ones with other people in them that are happy. I think it's almost a personal choice your mind or if there's a God, God makes where it's based off how happy your are in life. The pursuit of happiness is in my opinion, the closest we'll get to a meaning of life. Like that guys experience of drinking beer and watching sports, a lot of people who do that (but only drink beer at that time) are happy people, not all but if you see a lot of them talking online, that is their own "happy place" and so maybe if you find you own "happy place" that's where you'll end up. I'm only 16 so I don't know what my happiness truly is yet, maybe it'll be watching football with my dad, watching comedies over and over again and still laughing at every joke, watching Southampton if I can get to more than 1 game, playing cricket, storm chasing and hopefully with my favourite storm chasers, writing songs or with hopefully my future wife doing whatever we do, I hope that's where I end up. I also remember one where it was this guy who was just a butterfly floating through a meadow and honestly, that sounds like such fun. Just imagine no limits fun. If death has a soundtrack that'd be amazing as well, Pink Floyd, Kendrick Lamar, Nas, Lauryn Hill all playing music would be incredible.Like just imagine death as a better life without jobs to do. That's what I hope.

Unlikely, the surface patterns seem surface driven and generally the vortex is in a recovery state. Whilst I realise this is the 00Z run, I find this the most likely solution. Wavebreaking is too weak from the major SSW so it won't be that and the reflection from the minor SSW has already happened. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5015414

Unlikely, the surface patterns seem surface driven and generally the vortex is in a recovery state. Whilst I realise this is the 00Z run, I find this the most likely solution. Wavebreaking is too weak from the major SSW so it won't be that and the reflection from the minor SSW has already happened.

Suspects this is a slightly early reaction to the rising AAM. However, until the sharp rising event happens and the pooling of momentum distributes, I don't think the models will settle on any one feature. The long term is far from being resolved like this cold period was (sort of) in my opinion. For now, I'm going to stick to the mean. Don't be surprised if it's gone next run, it'll be very likely to be gone but it's a sign of what the rising AAM over the next week could possibly push. I'll do a proper update maybe later or tomorrow.

When I can be bothered (I have a great work ethic), I'll do my own update long-term but for now. The Pacific trough and Alaskan ridge switch over and in the context of the situation, that's just mild down the line for us because essentially it's just which one is stronger is on the day not which one we've got. Once the Pacific trough goes properly, then we can start to get interested again. Looking like early February is our best chance of it going for a whole and the Alaskan ridge taking over.

Would be incredibly ironic if this hits wouldn't it?

Would be incredibly ironic if this hits wouldn't it?

A reminder that we take snow for granted in my opinion, I've got a Brazilian friend who's in northern Ireland at the moment with a few snow showers in his area and this is his first time seeing snow in 9 years since a trip to Sweden. snowwwwww.mp4 So with lots of streamers possible, enjoy it, given the amount of showers a lot of people are in with a chance. The amount laying is probably going to make it a non-event away from Scotland and maybe northern England nonetheless but still enjoy it if you do get it, chances are you won't get much but it's still an event of sorts.

Mr Deja and Mrs Vu are back. Remember them?

I mean, watch out in Norfolk tomorrow... Maybe even 10 flakes could fall.

12Z GFS

GFS and it's ensembles still saying it's a 50/50 and the actual run is saying a definetely yes. Chance continues to be upgraded.

Icon trends further north.