Eagle Eye

Don't worry it does every year. People have widely contrasting opinions on each model run. I would listen to the professionals (even if they do talk high level stuff, you get a general idea of what they're feeling if you might not understand it, sometimes I don't understand what they're saying).

I think we can tell who are the glasses half full and glass half empty of the lot tonight. Right now my glass is just half.

Ha ha probably not. If you see me saying a charts good, doesn't necessarily mean it's good for the south as I am friends with people here in the south that don't like cold so I feel less obligation to say that it's going to snow and be significantly cold. From a southerner here, it's not all about the south. I just like to see people happy, I don't really mind if I miss out.

Absolutely agreed, people can be too quick to judge any 'proper' cold risk as over as soon as we have 1 off day and as we know from the Storms thread, the best stuff often comes relatively unexpected.

Haven't been watching the models today as have been out with my friends (hence why I made a few mistakes on my longer post earlier). Perhaps a trend towards a slightly less cold solution but it's only a couple runs still, I wouldn't dwell on it too much for now just like we're told not to dwell too much on 1 run of significant cold. Keep positive guys, we're only 2 days into a December that may have a few chances. Not to forget the wave pattern perhaps increasing the chance of a SSW.

Thank you so much, for an amateur like me that's really helpful

I think you've mistaken surface drag causing wind to flow left (in westerlies) of the Geostrophic flow for it not following the isobars. Crucially, it still follows the isobars. Plus, as @Dj fart says, John knows his stuff.

The differentiation of momentum divided by the differentiation of torque finds us that the rate of change is equal to the cross product of distance from origin timesed by the force. So with increasing torque going into the Atmospheric Angular Momentum we see an increasing AAM anomaly which makes sense. Hence the opposite happens with decreasing torque. So the -VE East Asian Mountain Torque event should drag the GWO towards a -VE Mountain phase which it does, yet, the -VE EAMT seems quite a strong event compared to the loss of AAM being relatively small. This suggests that +VE torque is being applied somewhere else and would help drag the GWO away from the northwards momentum phase as northwards momentum is associated with southwards drag in the Atlantic, flattening the pattern. Instead, it should drag us towards gaining AAM once the -VE EAMT becomes more stable and we see the East Asian wave train engaging with circumglobal troughing. This could sustain a relatively neutral AAM and our pattern becomes fairly hit and miss. Or it could push the jet to our south, keeping us in a more holding pattern, perhaps leaving room for an increased chance of either Greenland or Scandinavian blocking depending on the state of the AAM feedback and where the highest torque is applied which based off the weekly forecasts alone, I would suggest the strongest torque is associated with torque from the EAMT buckling and colliding with +VE torque along the East Coast of the North American tropics which may favour the longer term Scandinavian blocking but there is also some +VE torque applying itself closer to North America which may have the feedback of holding the Greenland blocking in place. If you've got a deep -VE torque one side but +VE torque the other side of a continent, then you may just end up with them dampening each other or kt may trigger another event I just simply don't know and my last few paragraphs have been my guesses of the possibilities. But there is a lot this depends on, it could just end up flattening the pattern, or it could prop up more blocking. I don't think we'll know properly till at least mid December and they'll probably be a lot of flip flopping in the models beyond this potential upcoming cold spell.

@Tom QuintavalleThanks for your kind comments. The Greenlad blocking is associated with a weakening of the zonal wind which often reverses the zonal wind into easterlies hence the correlation with significant cold events.

Premium windy? Is that windy.com for day to day weather or just guessing based off the wind? NOAA are very good yes but they can be off by a little bit and for our island a little bit is often a big change,

I would argue that there is still too much difference and the possibility of a west based -VE NAO cropping up every few model runs and that this forecast is pretty much spot on for what most model runs are showing at the moment.

Mostly agree with you but I don't think the west based-VE NAO is necessarily all that bad because we're still associated with the lag of a +VE AAM anomaly and a meandering jet stream with less of a zonal wind propping up the westerly wind and Atlantic flow. The GWO is mostly not associated with southward drag yet in a -VE AAM which would be the first signs of Atlantic influence. In fact it's going to stay fairly neutral,mostly being in a +VE AAM (or Nino-esque) state favorable for reinforced blocking. We've got the -VE East Asian Mountain Torque synoptic wave train to add to the equation though, it could reinforce the zonal winds or it could prop up the Scandinavian blocking, interesting timed ahead. Also by the 2nd week or so we should start seeing negative anomalies around the SE of the USA which may act as a -VE NAO reinforcement.

Teletext I think, my nan used it up until it was deleted,

Good night everyone and remember to book a trip to go to Greenland just in case of a west based -VE NAO so you can put it into a more favourable position with a big Meteorological poking stick then make the quick hop back over to the now snow covered UK .

The trick is to buy sledges in the Summer so you don't jinx any cold synoptics.

Clearly going forward we're going to see a lot of twists and turns still, spread is still quite large close to us as to the evolution, the second half of the game has just begun... But the mean is still the best way forward in my opinion and it's got a very good angle of attack

The ECM mean seems to have slipped by me... That is very good for mean,synoptics close to that should lock in cold for a long time although we've still got shortwaves that the mean probably won't pick up but still an amazing mean.

The Greenland high goes up up up the ziggurat lickety split and down comes the cold. So, I think we can say this model run was, all right dudes.

This is why you stay up for the pub run even when you can't go to the pub

We're going to get a full debriefing of everything in about an hour that confirms that we're 100% going to see what our heart desires from this @several people . Can't seem to tag them .

Stratosphere'e looking a bit wavy

We're at the stage where the cold charts are coming into my personal time frame now, anything below 168/maybe up to 192 hours you can really start to believe in my opinion. Plenty of runs to go and there will likely be the odd off run but the general pattern is moving towards these incredible synoptics, they're cropping up more and more.

Blend of a few I think, mainly the ECM I'm pretty sure. They often keep anything away from the extremes unless it comes within the time frame of a couple days, they're non rampers like the Met Office but I would trust the Met Office more for your information always, just my personal view though.

6:30 alarm 7:20 walk to bus stop 8:45 get into school 15:20 get out of school 24/7 check the weather models That's my schedule

Sounds like the start of a joke. A Canadian and a Norwegian walk into a bar... And probably take all of the UK's favourite drink of snow and cold.