Uncertainty

Ah yes I have that vibe too! But the problem is, if I really think back, I have that same vibe every time we get to this point haha! (I’m sure many of you know what I mean) Though, with so many pros on Twitter plug-in the -NAO, the sheer unusualness of this huge U.K. high, the MJO stuck in 7 and such consistent blocking forecast counting down nicely from quite a few weeks ago, there’s ‘legs’ in this particular chase I think (and this winter as a whole).

The MO have to cover a lot of bases. They’ll be thinking what we’re thinking Kasim but they need to wait until they’ve got harder evidence. Virtually all human written LRFs for this winter are going for colder than average. Even the likes of Accuweather who generally and often correctly hit the climatology readout. Aside from the SPV and the warmer trends in the climate, virtually every other driver points towards a colder/cold winter. Big test coming up this: seasonals / strong vortex vs analogs / signals/ human reasoning and intuition.

Not sure there ever was a clear cut Scandi high in the means Mike, just the ridge moving N towards the U.K. As BA states the trend today is towards the W/NW Sure the 12z GFS sinks and most highs do but we have a slow moving decent amp WP MjO in an EP Nina context which often heralds an -NAO IMHO the possibility of retrogression is not excluded by today’s trends on the contrary it is very much on the table. Nevertheless with a strong SPV am taking nothing for granted. There have also been some trop set ups in the modelling (e.g 0z gfs) that could really put some heat into the strat. One too watch seen as all the SCeuro high seasonals are predicated on a SSWless season! Still every chance we could have our snowy cake and eat it this year.

Why this time for the first ever ramp MIA, are you seeing something special evolving here? I have had this feeling for over a year about this winter. The background signals support such a possibility, but the SPV looks rather ominous. My feeling is more 95/96 or perhaps 08/09 rather than the prophetic chart you posted! Just curious to know what’s spiked your interest.

Isn’t that a purple border for the AR regime Feb? Btw those are some seriously anomalous clusters for what is usually the festival of westerlies!

A flatter trend on the GEFS, just one run but notable nonetheless. Really clear on the euro view 12z 6z Plenty of time for a swing back mind, and I’ve very little time for the GEFS generally having been let down so many times in the past. Not a trend many will want to continue though… In more interesting news, the CFS mean anomaly - taken over the average of recent days has suddenly become interesting for January Today Dec 3rd The AR has quietly trended north over the past few days, one to keep an eye on. I personally feel establishing this Scandi ridge and getting it to establish and be far enough north has consequences far beyond the surface weather for Xmas week. Were it to quickly fade into SE euro (like some 12z members were suggesting) we would lose the wave flux into the strat and it’s a long way back from there. Surely then there would be major coupling and another such attempted ridge would need to wait till the next MJO 6/7/8 cycle (if indeed there was a significant one) to take hold, with any hypothetical SSW then being put back towards Feb and beyond… with surface impacts lagging it could be a long, wet and miserable wait… Just like with Omicron, it feels like this winter could go either way and it’s this next few weeks where we shall begin to understand the path we are on. To be or not to be. As ever, that is the question…

I’ve missed the stonker posts Feb. Or better yet, the STONKER ALERT posts. It’s definitely better than it has been for the last few days. That’s for sure!

Remarkably coherent signal at 360 from the big 3 ensembles GEPS GEFS EPS would doubtless be similar MJO phase 6 Nina composite Forecast Interesting where the 46 takes the Urals high towards xmas…

How much of that trough is going to deconstruct? We’re really not very far from that emerging mid Atlantic ridge linking up with the NEern heights? Also, longer term, banking this FI GEFS

Oh yes I agree if we can have our cake and eat it too that would be marvellous! But i’d rather get it off snowy sliders coming up against the Scandi - Ural block (aka the ECM 12z yesterday) rather than a big mid Atlantic ridge that will do little to stop the coupling that could kill the best part of winter for coldies.

Really Mike? I’ve seen patterns I’ve wanted reversed before but not that one. Of course the Arctic /Greenland profile is going to be purple. The SPV is getting so strong some coupling is inevitable. This from Judah Cohen shows the coupling getting together now. The best we can hope for, both for now and beyond, is a strong NEern block to hold it back. And, eventually, send it packing. Without that block it’s this: And it took till SPRING to reset that pattern. We both come on here in January and February mate. We’ll want cold weather then too, more so in my case. Just trust me on this one that we need these building blocks to secure a serious cold spell to really enjoy in those months. It will be worth the wait!

This is what I want. If we get a split SSW in Early Jan this is the precursor pattern to pine for. A beasterly type pattern has never been on the table from these next few week’s Synoptics and won’t be until that raging SPV is shut down. I’m a big fan of MP (and indeed the seasoned posters plugging the westerly scenario and tbf the anomalies and means are generally supportive of that outcome) and enjoy his tweets but not convinced this is the time to plug a big ++NAO… Yes the SPV is really strong but the MJO is well away from the flat phases, the EC46 went back to blocking, the 30 dayer speaks of general coldness / a dry Christmas and as we speak the GFS shrouds us in a dry Easterly at day 9 and beyond. The clusters hardly scream flat as a pancake… Just to be clear, I TOO feel that the jet will be slightly too strong for the block to cover our locale and we will end up wet but not ‘flat westerly’ wet (perhaps like the 12z GFS). After that, More than a hint (including from MO) that said wetness, flat or battleground based, will be temporary and that pressure may build Over the UK into the last third of December. Beyond that. If the Urals high has done it’s thing. Then the long range forecast will be clear: Buy more grit.

Bit more support for the easterly here from Mogreps. 6/16 members. Shows this is nowhere near ‘in the bag’ mind though. Today’s twists and turns tell you to hang fire on any firm forecast for a few days yet. Having Mogreps really is a fantastic tool for us to have in the armoury. If the GFS clambours aboard again tonight we’ll be ready for the choppy waters of tomorrow’s 0z. .

At 216, that’s just about a mean easterly flow into the SE. Cluster 2 from this morning just got bigger… Trust the GFS to fluff its finest hour. First to pick the pattern and then drops it when the going gets tough.

Not mine to post but the extended eps beyond 300 still has that low euro heights / Ural blocking / Aleutian Low combo. If it holds for the 0z then surely last weeks abominable EC46 won’t be repeated. Were such a pattern to establish for 2-3 weeks then it’ll be time to look high up for our mid winter destiny.

Will ‘relatively’ awesome suffice? Would you like the last 8 Decembers instead? Thanks to @jules216 - The southerly and accompanying Greenland dipole pattern (pressure from the west creates the poleward advection needed to pump up the high) *could* help put pressure on the stratospheric polar vortex which, in turn, could define the course of winter. - The well established euro trough will prop up the high and increase it’s chances to sustain or perhaps even retrogress. I am by no means going ‘over the top’ it’s a day 10 chart and completely different from the 0z and the NOAA charts aren’t on board yet. What I am saying is the precursor patterns (mjo movement/NE heights) are starting to compliment the background signals (EQBO/ not modoki Nina / coming out of low solar) and we’re not seeing SPV coupling as yet. All good signs topped off with a chart I found awesome, relatively speaking of course

That is such an awesome chart for early December. Even the colours are nice. Somethings afoot…

Now then… Big time energy disruption and a (probably not very) snowy slider! Lots more energy heading SE. Whatever happens from here it’s a big leap to the GFS solution and cements the idea that something really quite interesting is going on…

Fear not, @sheikhy, they build stronger heights into Scandi after day 10, low heights over C euro better defined too. 12z 6z GFS has had some good moments in the past year or so. This would be another big coup. I’m never sure about Scandi highs though I’ve seen so many not verify. it’s an option going forward though and it wasn’t a few days ago. The broader signal, including on the EPS, for a big N Russian high is even more important in the wider context of this winter.

Yup hence the collectors item Saying that if it keeps chucking out similar fayre over the coming days esp in Atlantic profile will have to take notice… it can spot a trend in that sector pretty much all it’s good for…

Snake eyes? Two black holes orbiting E and W of our domain is a real collectors item, especially given climatologically (Nina aside) you’d expect their signs to be reversed!

Is anyone else watching this? That Arctic high? It’s not going to verify like that but fascinating that such a scenario is even on the table, very odd indeed…

Surface weather difference will be highly significant. The regimes have shifted heavily from blocked to +NAO, I agree the more aggressive trop vortex lobe the culprit. Monday run = dry and calm for majority, drier than average (esp In NW) with frost and fog todays run: Wetter than average in NW, cloudy and bleak. However on reflection many of the forecast elements are similar between the runs and thus I would amend my wording to ‘quite’ big PS the mean would be flat as two big clusters of members are very flat / downright stormy but a significant minority are anomalously blocked and thus it’s a watching brief…

It is a big switch so I suggest waiting till next Monday’s run before becoming too swayed by it. Yes Yes Ensembles, there are clusters too. Hope that helps

Things, can only get, better! I’m at least waiting till the next run to write off winter Ive looked through the 12z EPS members and a good minority are pretty blocked. Better than the above I would hazard. Nevertheless, a good third are the stuff of nightmares (present company excluded @knocker) and bring a seemingly insurmountable ++NAO that would flatten any hopes of a trop pattern to bring any meaningful strat disruption and would put any hope of cold in December firmly in the can. I wonder whether this minor Canadian warming is somehow partly behind this (putting a big trough into Asia rather than the ridge we that would promote a future reversal?) and I don’t think it’s helpful for us because it’s not a split and the rebound will be severe and prolonged. Would love to know any one’s thoughts on that… As for the MJO I get what Tamara’s saying it’s a pointer not a decider but Dan has a point too and if it were to get to P7 at a decent amplitude then it would surprise (but not shock) me to see the flattest, angriest of those EPS members come to pass. You would expect some resistance to the dark side of the force from that… Also the GEFS really aren’t that bad later on, quite interesting in fact Winter football analogy time: We’re 1-0 down after 10 minutes, but plenty of time to go. We’ve got some great players (The East brothers: qbo and Nina) on the bench about to come on but Raging Vortex FC have done us in the past and they’re smelling blood. If it were up to me I’d sign that Russian star from the Urals back ASAP as he did a great job for us this time last year! Next up, it’s the big one between Analog FC and Seasonal Models United. I’ll be watching, from my favourite seat behind the sofa!