Greyhound81
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Posts posted by Greyhound81
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On 30/08/2023 at 22:22, damianslaw said:
August 86 was quite an exceptional month, not many to compare it to, but to then have an exceptionally cold September was very unusual. The exceptional cold in Jan 87 followed. Indeed Feb 86 - Jan 87 produced abundant extreme cold, not seen anything close since.
Do you think the end of solar cycle 21 was one of the the reasons why 1986 was so cold? The end of odd numbered solar cycles seems to coincide with cold weather.
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18 hours ago, davehsug said:
I respectfully disagree. July and August have been so poor that June is but a distant, hazy memory. I don't believe that I have experienced a duller and colder summer period than the last 2 months. Just about every morning has been cloudy and usually wet and the days have rarely improved. It's the relentless cloud and coolness that has been the most remarkable feature since the backend of June.
The worst combined July and August that I can remember is 2011. That was just awful. Maybe it was better where you live though.
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Better late than never, but typically arriving just when the schools go back. Happened many many a time over. Indeed early Sept I always think of as being very benign.
With much residual heat to tap into from the continent, should a southerly/south easterly flow develop, then mid 20s maxes for some will easily be recorded. Nothing unusual for the time of year, but would be very warm in any early Sept sunshine which still has a bite.
There are some signals of a plume of sorts in about 8 days, but the trough could edge in and bring a hefty dose of rain for the west.
Overall we look like seeing the most nationwide sustained settled spell since mid June. How sustained and how settled remains to be seen.
What are the models suggesting for the second week of September (11th - 17th)? A continuation of the good weather or will things go downhill?
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8 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:
I don't mind the skyscrapers in London or Manchester, I really like the look of ultra modern glass towers mixed amongst all the old Victorian architecture...It's a cool vibe, progressive but still retaining it's history.... Though I'm not a huge fan of the look of walkie talkie tower or the guerkin tower, seems out of place, canary wharf seems to be a little more cohesive as far as tower designs go. We have a couple streets left here in Exeter that need to be raised to the ground and rebuilt namely South street and the top half of Sidwell street, it attracts the wronguns too, hopefully those area's will be the next phases for redevelopement but we wont be having any skyscrapers here I doubt
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I like Victorian architecture, built to last and classic in design.
It is a shame that a lot of the old building in Exeter got destroyed in WW2 bombing raids. Do you think mistakes were made when the city was rebuilt following the war? Maybe if Exeter had not been bombed, those streets would not look like the way they do now and would not need to be raised to the ground?
Apparantly the Germans only targetted Exeter because of its historic buildings and not for any strategic reason.
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On 28/08/2023 at 09:18, davehsug said:
Well why should the last holiday of this pathetic excuse for a summer be any different? Raining, 14c and dark enough to need a small light on.
Roll on May 2024, at least we'll still have hope!
I don't think you can call it a pathetic excuse for a summer when we have had one of the best Junes on record. We have had better summers but plenty worse (2007-8, 2011-12 etc).
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I am going to have a few days off work in September and want to choose the days that have the best prospects of weather. Monday and Tuesday look good according to the BBC website but it is probably too late to book those days off. Is there still some prospects of good weather after next week or is it all downhill after next Tuesday?
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6 hours ago, SnowBear said:
Does seem to possibly be an unexpected experiment initiated by nature.
What it would mean is we need to look much more closely to other mechanisms besides just CO², especially if they can have large effects in a short space of time like we are possibly seeing this year.
It has been mentioned on another climate forum that no extra water vapor is being recorded in the lower stratosphere as monitered by the UAH satellite (balloon data). If that is the case, then the Tonga volcano eruption cannot be having an effect on global temperatures just yet.
Also a press release from NASA mentioned that it could take 2-3 years before the eruption causes global temperatures to rise, and even then it might not be noticable above statistical noise. The accompanying cooling particles would have to dissipate before it can cause any warming.
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On 26/07/2022 at 09:03, Gray-Wolf said:
Since I 'hung up my saddle' in the climate debate (2014) I've seen more of the folk that I have contact with raise their awareness to the Emergency than I ever saw over near 2 decades battling in places like this?
I now feel that it is all a matter of 'positioning'?
Sit facing a person & it is far easier for them to become an opponent than if they're sat next to you?
I'm sure this is what has happened since I stopped trying to help folk to knowledge & let them ask the questions themselves?
They might be surprised at the answer, it may will be quite 'detailed', but then they did ask!
On another matter I've found the most persuasive folk on climate change are the folk who have travelled from 'Denier' to Scientifically aware?
The climate section of this forum seems very quiet these days. There are not many posts in this section compared to previous years. Also Bornfromthevoid seems to have gone. He was very good at explaining how climate change works.
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
2010 summer was cool.
August was cool. June and July were above average.
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The June 2017 heatwave was a lot more oppressive than the last few days have been, apart from maybe Sunday. Summer went downhill after June that year, could 2023 be a repeat of that summer, and this hot spell could be as good as it gets?
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I have 3 days off work from Wedenesday to Friday next week. Does it look like all 3 days will be a washout in the south east?
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8 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Sf James's Park or my local weather station Kenley much more representative of the London area than Heathrow.
Last year Kenley recorded the highest ever daily minimum temperature of 25.8 degrees.
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Do any of the winter months have an enigma for low temperatures, like the 13th June has for 30 degress?
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13 hours ago, Paul said:
Hot off the press, here's the Netweather summer forecast - in-depth and written by @Nick F
Long Range Weather Forecast - Summer 2023 | Netweather.tv
WWW.NETWEATHER.TVDoes @Nick F have a good track record with the seasonal forecasts? I cannot see any previous forecasts on this site.
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3 hours ago, damianslaw said:
July wasn't much better, and August just passable. I rate it worse summer since 1988.
2011 was worse in my opinion, although it depends on where you live.
Is the netweather summer forecast going to be released soon? I have seen a few forecasts for this summer, and they seem to agree that it won't be as good as last year, although there will be some warm spells.
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The netweather forecast for spring turned out to be quite good.
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When will the netweather summer forecast be released?
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4 hours ago, damianslaw said:
For a shockingly low absolute maxima 1974 produced a max 27 degrees at Stratford on Avon.
Most summers since 1940 have delivered a max at least 30 degrees. 1993 possibly last time that didn't happen.
Was 30 degrees reached in any of the 85-88 summers?
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On 06/05/2023 at 20:25, Summer8906 said:
I think that's probably true, despite the "barbecue summer" jibes. June 2009 was definitely good. August 2009 was dry and frequently quite sunny here, though was let down by being distinctly cool on the cloudier days with a nagging breeze. I think there were very low SSTs at the time meaning that temperatures were lower than what they ought to have been.
Scoring the summers JJA, on a scale from +2 (good) to -2 (poor) for each month, with a half-weighting for June, due to July and August being the main holiday period:
2009, +2, -2*, 0 = -1
2019: -2*, 0*, -1 = -2
2020: -1, -1, -1 = -2.5
2021: -1, -1, -1 = -2.5
(* out of country for some or all of month, so partly based on second-hand information).
I am not sure why you gave August 2019 and 2020 the same rating as August 2021? August 2021 was awful. This is how I would rate 2019-2021. Can't remember enough about 2009 to give it a rating.
2019: -1, +1, 0 = 0.5
2020: 0, -1, +1 = 0??
2021: +1, 0, -2 = -1.5If you give June a zero with a half-weighting is it still zero when you add the months together?
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Always find summer hard to predict, less so than Spring though which has a tendancy to flip quite quickly. The summer base state tends to set in around the solstice and the weather beforehand often gives little indication of how the bulk of the summer may pan out.
Do you find Autumn and Winter easier to predict? Not that it is easy to predict the weather for any season.
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4 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Yes struggling to think of the last consistently wet spring throughout.
2016 was consistantly wet. But warmer that this spring though.
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7 hours ago, B87 said:
That would be a promising summer after the spring we have endured!
I also asked it to produce the hottest day of the year from 2023-2100. 40c was recorded in 2035, 2056, 2058, 2062, 2064, 2066, 2077 (43.5c, the hottest day of the 21st century) and 2098.
Where there any years that failed to reach 30c?
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I seem to remember that a lot of people were predicting summer 2022 to be below average. Not just on this forum but in general. When did it become clear that last summer was going to turn out to be very good? Probably not in early May.
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There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees. He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s.
Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Greyhound81
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If this period of heat had arrived in mid/late July, could it have led to another chance of 40C being reached again?