Metwatch

Hmm, 2023 was also the joint warmest year on record while also being pretty wet, but if that's becoming more common, then so willl those muggy days. Would you happen to know the 30 year average of the amount of days where the dp reaches 18C in a year by any chance? Would probably be a bit higher on the southern coast than the Midlands.

Based on that table until 1852, then until 1878 Oxford alone. From 1878 3 stations used for CET and that's also when the maximum and minimum CET series started. Also just spotted that February 1779 would have been recorded in Rutland, but if it was London then likely a figure over 8C? (still questioning the level of accuracy back then though).

We've had a more "humid" summer like airmass come in but the dewpoints certainly haven't reached to uncomfortable levels, indeed. A few further north I imagine not used to it after recent chilly temperatures. Highest dewpoint today here was 13C, air temp reached 17C despite no sun so more like an average dull July day. For me and most others, it doesn't feel opressive or uncomfortable until dewpoint starts to reach about 17-18C, and that is fairly rare in this country, only happens handful of days in a normal year. I suppose it is getting a tiny bit more common though than maybe a few decades ago.

Thought it would be interesting to see this month of two halves on a graph. The daily CET compared with running mean and the 1991-2020 running mean average. The second half averaged 7.9C! Same graph but added on the 1991-2020 average running mean.

For anyone curious on May 1833, this post might help. Reason being is this May does have the potential to get close to 1833 but depends on what happens in the second half. The CET value of May 1833 also comes from London, rather than the 3 places used today, hence it being higher than if it was used with stations further north like today.

Just done some graphs on the daily and running values of May 1833 CET against the 1981 - 2010 mean, clearer to see it all. The CET values were taken from London for 1833 with that mean of 15.1C: However in London May 1992 and May 2018 were slightly warmer with mean temperatures of I think around 15.4-15.6C at Heathrow. But, London was much smaller in 1833 so it's difficult to truly know if 1833 was that much warmer than 1992 or 2018 thinking about it. Given the stations used for CET values today, I think a modern day CET of 14C would be required to truly beat 1833 for the whole country. The Mays of 1992, 2008, 2018 etc, were probably still quite close to 1833.

Annoyingly on the side of cloud this afternoon, 20 miles north of here sunny but might clear up in the next hour or 2 time will tell, still quite mild and humid ish at 16C, so feels seasonal in some aspect. Some amazing storms in the south / southeast last night, was fun tracking them despite not getting any here and a good start to the season like last year. Just would be nice if we could get a few weeks of dryness before more storms come up, a bit like last May to June I guess but with a slightly better high summer period

All the best looking strikes from his stream in one post. It seems he was in Worthing instead of Eastbourne. Then drove west to Portsmouth I think last (4 pics). He's still streaming but i'll probably be heading to bed now. Night all!

The insanity continues, you can hear this guy's excitement as well, which would also be me if if I was there. "the best thing i've seen in my life" he's saying right now.

One of the few reasons I do like the internet, watching this from home, just incredible.

OMGGGG

is it just me or does this look like a reverse question mark? This is in the last 15 minutes alone.

Josh Rubio When i see the lightning map look like this might think it's realistic that they'll reach us here but they probably will die off as quick as they formed once they get within 50 miles of here. We'll see though...

Paris is lit up

Let it cook

A photo and timelapse to go with that in the last hour. Closer inspection and the surface flow is coming from more of a east-north easterly but the upper level flow is south easterly. I slowed down the last second of the timelapse to see it clearer. Not easy to tell from satellite alone. Dewpoint of 13C around here, one of the highest in the country it seems. YouCut_20240501_181452300.mp4

Briefly spitted just now. Flow is coming in from the south east and it became lighter from the east after the shower passed rather than from the west during the majority of the time here. Light levels were really poor for a moment, a bit funky. I think that often happens when it's hazier than usual and any showers amplifies the darkness (hence you get daytime darkness events during much stronger storms with dustfalls i.e July 1968). This afternoon specifically reminds me a little of April 2019, one of the days that month which brought some decent thunderstorms around here, that also came in from the south east, might have been the 8th. I do wonder if some dust is being brought up given the pattern. Regardless it's nice for this month to start off feeling quite seasonal, 17-18C sunny spells earlier but also hazy and a little humid. I guess since it's been quite cool up until the last few days, this exact same humid air will feel warmer than it might do if it was in September following summer; acclimatization.

Looks like myself and 3 others who guessed 9.6C this month got it bang on. April ended up at 1.7C above the 1961-1990 average, 0.6C above the 1991-2020 average, so a mild month but in today's climate not significantly so.

End of April comparison, last year versus 2 days ago. Foliage defintely ahead especially with the sycamore in the centre back. This year even slightly ahead of end of April 2021 as well, but I think end of April 2020 was by far the furthest ahead in the last 5 or more years given the consistent warmth of that month start to end. There are a minority of few trees only just starting to come out, and will do another comparison of another tree here (still unsure on species) for the 5th year running which I usually do in opening days of each May. The recent cooler period has slowed down some tree leaves coming out, should speed up again this week, but if the mild conditions from the first half had continued through all of April, we would have potentially have been ahead of spring 2020!

Some of the stuff in the Netherlands last night, hopefully similar scenes for many tonight. Not expecting much tonight here but never know, so will stay awake until maybe 3-4am. Might head to the top of one of the multi storey car parks in the city centre for a better view if storms close in, interesting to try them out during night storms. Built up areas or cities usually a nightmare to chase, however if you can get onto some sort of skyscraper or even a high multi-storey car park like a few here, can get some of the best views even arguably better than most rural areas; cityscape thunderstorm/lightning photos always look amazing.

Couldn't really fault today apart from the moderate SE'ly breeze but even that didn't feel cold anymore. Probably added up another 10 hours of sunshine today, bringing the monthly total to over 135 hours, not too far from the average of 147 hours. Also a great example of cloud streets or horizontal convective rolls this afternoon:

I think the mods might close this one down, remember one of them mentioning it for any haters club thread, heat, cold, cloud, rain haters etc due to too much guilt-tripping unless moderation became stricter. They might have changed their minds since then though so not sure, just saying what I read, don't shoot the messenger! Edit: Found the mod post on them:

13.4C and 53.5mm The month that 'may' break records this year has finally arrived. Have had it in my mind for a while that this May could be a notably warm one, however at the same time don't want to overdo it so I have gone for something fairly sensible but still quite warm, similar to the warmest Mays in recent decades; 1992, 2008, 2017, '18 etc. Majority of rain expecting to fall in the first week before entering a quite a long settled spell with the occasional brief thundery interlude.

I do feel this thread and the moans thread should be joined up as it was the case last year and for each season. This one is pretty quiet so can't see much of a point in it, but suppose can still keep it running; there is quite a lot of threads which I notice often overlap; model emotions, moans thread and this one, either way I'm not overly bothered. Keeping it on topic, looks like it's drier from now, but haven't had much sun, currently 10C. Tuesday looking nice for the last day of this forgettable month. Only one way up for temperatures from today forward.

Alderc 2.0 Always concerns me slightly when GFS is the odd one out as in recent years I have noticed it ends up verifying better than the other operational model runs do in the 5-8 day time frame. The GEFS though still builds the high pressure in soon enough but whether next weekend is another write off or not we won't know for a few more days. Earlier the high pressure builds in, the better of course. Thought I would also take a quick look at the AAM and GWO, at least the CFS forecasts (I haven't got access to the more "professional" charts unfortunately). But a slight rise is possible into the start of next month, so perhaps that is helping to bring about something more settled across north west Europe. However a drop is then forecast later next month, the GWO with it would head to the low phases of 1-2 if so, which i'm slightly worried if that would cause more northern blocking and trap a trough around the country's viscinity, encouraging a southerly tracking jet. Just a forecast though so prone to change. MJO is at last going to progress through the Maritimes, and taking a gander at the ENSO neutral analogues for May, phases 3-5, that fits nicely with the forecast evolution of the low dropping to our south - south east, then high pressure moves in from the north / west at some point from next weekend.