SummerShower
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It's not a great month, but it's better than July 2007. That month didn't make 26C anywhere in the UK. We have had a 30C day this month on the 7th. July 1988 was even worse.
Just now, SummerShower said:It's not a great month, but it's better than July 2007. That month didn't make 26C anywhere in the UK. We have had a 30C day this month on the 7th. July 1988 was even worse.
Sorry meant to post in summer thread, unsure how to move!
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There have been a few wet days, and quite a few showers yes, but i don't rate this July as bad as some. It's better than 2009,12,15 for example, and probably neither better or worse than 2020. Lots of usable weather despite a lack of sunbathing chances. Its just a bit boring and nondescript tbh.
If August turns out OK this will still be a half decent summer overall.
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It's days like today in the midst of high summer that are the absolute king of the garbage bag. Just steady rain, dreariness, and low temperatures. Tomorrow might be just as bad in terms of being unusable but it will have a bit more interest in that gales, and thundery showers may occur. I'd still rather it didn't happen until October though.
Incidentally, I know it won't be, but if tomorrow's storm was named, would it fit in with the 22/23 or the 23/24 naming system?
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Well, we needed the rain and boy have we got it this afternoon.
We have been transported temporarily to november
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No problems with the weather this weekend here. 20 to 22C, cloudy periods and sunny spells alternating. I don't mind this 'unsettled' weather one bit! Yes, usable rather than summery, but could be a lot worse.
Only 1 day since June 1st here has been genuinely poor, and that was Friday just gone.
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27 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Have to say it’s a pretty Meh looking week ahead. Cool, often cloudy and showery. I’m stood watching my boys football at the moment and it’s nothing other than fresh. Not looking forward to the lack of warmth in the outlook.
Looking much warmer end of the week to next weekend. Admittedly might not last long though.
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I make it that we need a CET of 11.6 today to get to 16.90 and beat 1976 16.89. 13.1 will guarantee a 17.0 reading for the month (will be 16.95 rounded up). This is after 16.0 yesterday.
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After yesterday's 19.0 we now need an average of 13.8 for the last 2 days to get to 16.9 exactly. I believe 1976 was 16.89 from another post. This should easily be doable, only thing that would stop it is a very cool night tonight I think
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16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
It will be interesting to note the mean temps for each week of the month. I think 1-7 June was quite cool, 8-14 June exceptional, probably hottest such spell on record, 15-21 June again very warm, 22- 27 cooler, cool end.
From the 10th to 26, there has only been 1 day < 17C. I remember in the exceptional July 2018 it was similar for the whole month, but to get a similar period (albeit slightly shorter) so early in the summer is exceptional.
Every day from the 9th to the 25th has exceeded 26C somewhere with 15 of these 17 days above 80f (26.7)
Every day of the month has exceeded 23C somewhere. (We'll see if that continues for the last 2 days)
Mean Max is about 4C above average
Therefore, some exceptional temperature stats for the month I feel
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11 minutes ago, cheese said:
It’s why I absolutely hate front-loaded summers. I don’t care how great June is if it’s followed by a miserable July & August.
If we're going to have a front loaded summer, let's have a 1992 or 2004, as although they were mainly cloudy, they were often thundery. Let's not have another 2017 as, after 18th July there was nothing at all (no heat or thunder)
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58 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:
I see a nice cheeky little bonus Cell is heading towards Basingstoke, I can see some nice cumulus building to the North of my location.
I can confirm we had an unexpected torrential shower from that, only lasted 5 to 10mins. No thunder, but nice to see. Cooled significantly now
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23 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
I'd be interested to see the stats for your area- for here it definitely hasn't been the case that minima have kept the average up over the past week or two.
Since the 8th only two days here have failed to reach 23C and no days have failed to reach 20C. Definitely a case for saying the maxima are more responsible for the high mean than the minima.
The average minimum across the month at my local weather station is 10.9C which no better than average really (although it is a rural station). Average max is 23.9C which is really exceptional for June.
Big exaggeration to call the 2nd half 'average' in my opinion, anywhere in England.
Edit: Keswick maxima since the 17th:
17th: 22.9C
18th: 24.1C
19th: 21.7C
20th: 20.4C
21st: 21.9C
22nd: 22.4C
23rd: 21.1C
24th: 22.3C
25th: 24C
That looks well above average to me overall for that area. Every day has been above average and several days considerably so.
Taking the uk as a whole, 26c has been reached or exceeded every day since the 9th somewhere in the country. That must be notable for June. I think every day of the month has exceeded 23C somewhere as well.
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13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Most people just haven’t bothered to look at the actual forecast. I’ve been posting for days that for many people it’s not going to be that bad. They just see summer low pressure and think 2012 every time.
Yeah no way is it looking like 2012. This week actually just looks like your average westerly fare really. The following week, maybe more cyclonic for a time, but potentially back to high pressure after that (source: gavs sunday round up video)
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3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
2014 was a good summer despite the poor August .
The funny thing about June and July 2014 was they were actually a great pair of summer months but really lacked any extremes. June didn't exceed 80F at all, and July only had 2 days above 30C. The least said about that August the better! Even summer 2012 had more days above 30C than 2014.
2011 had great 'summer' synoptics in April, and late september to October. Had these heatwaves occured in the summer I think 35C plus was on the cards. The actual summer synoptics though were terrible generally.
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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
1976 now looks very vulnerable so long as there are no huge end-of-month corrections. Warmest June for 200 years? The Daily Express will go nuts!
I'm not sure you get the end of month corrections now. I know before the series was updated last year it often came down by 0.2 to 0.3 degrees at the end of the month. I suspect if the old method/version was being used it would currently stand in the low 17s, to then be corrected down!
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22 minutes ago, SunSean said:
What amazes me is that June 2018, despite being fairly average in terms of sunshine for the first 20 days, is still not going to be beaten by June 2023 for Shoeburyness weather station and I find this so bizarre because this month has been pretty much sunny almost all the time. In fact, it may not even beat June 2020 & June 2017! Find it hard to wrap my head around. For Heathrow though, it may surpass June 2018 as long as the last 5 days aren't wall to wall grey lol.
It may have been the cloud in the east, at least in the mornings, during the first 8 days that has caused this.
It's funny how the sunnier areas have shifted around this month. The first 8 days were very sunny in the west, the North had their turn during the past 2 weekends, and now it's the turn of the east, for example. This probably means it hasn't been exceptionally sunny in any given region overall. I don't have sunshine figures to hand to confirm this but I suspect this is the case.
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I'm thinking easily the warmest since 1976. Don't think we will beat it though. Taking the zone as a whole, the 23rd to 25th Might average 18c per day and next week 15c per day, looking at the forecast. This would give 16.5 to 16.6C depending on exact rounding
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2 hours ago, danm said:
There's more cloud around this morning than forecast, but it's warm and muggy. 23c currently, forecast high of 27c with sunshine.
Actually sunnier out west of London (after a lot of high cloud earlier). V warm as well with scattered cumulus humilis now
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16 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
July 6th looks very unpleasant on the GFS. Max of 12c. Heavy rain. Good job the heating bills are coming down as might have to crank the radiators on again. Still. We can but hope for 23c on October 6th.
That must be a record/ near record cold day if that came off.
I cant help but feel this is going to be a classic front loaded summer. I feel July won't be great, but I'd then hope for an August like 97,04 or 20, a cauldron of humidity and thunderstorms. I read somewhere recently that el nino summers are likely to give this type of August.
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16.8C and 103mm
Going for very unsettled but with some thunder. 1 plume event 2nd half of the month. I've just got a feeling this will be a classic front loaded summer.
If I'm wrong though, and it's a good month I'll be happy either way
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Let's hope we don't get the summer equivalent of what happened 6 months ago. A decent winter cold snap lasted from around Thursday 8th to Saturday 17th December. The output was for cold to return after the predicted 'mild blip' around 18th to 21st or so... look what happened for 4 weeks after
A decent summer heatwave is occurring from Thursday 8th June to Saturday 17th June. The models seem to very slowly be backing away from heat returning..
Just for fun, but you see where I'm going with this..
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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
1976 had an unremarkable start to the month as well. It only really got hot in the last 10 days.
I think this is why we've never been able to challenge 1846 as we haven't had a June that has sustained the heat through the month like July 2006 did for example.
True, and this is why I can't think of any June's in my lifetime (or even stretching back into the middle of last century) that one would call classic. No June's live up to the classic standards of say some Julys (83, 06, 13, 18) or Augusts (95, 03, 22), for example.
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
So potentially the warmest June for 180 years, and warmer than June 1976?
That's either remarkable or just another sign that we are living with new norms, particularly during summer time.
And all after the first 9 days of June being below average!
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I don't think it's a done deal yet. I'd say, quite likely but not definite. A date record, yes.
Look to somewhere like Hurn, Gosport Fleetlands, Exeter, somewhere like that, to get there.
Summer 2004
in Historic Weather
Posted
August 2004 was a storm lovers dream. I counted 7 days with thunder that month which was a record. How I'd love another month like that - just dial up the heat and sunshine at the start more pronounced and you have the perfect month.
I've seen similarities with this summer so far, and 2004. June this year being quite a bit better but July (so far) a bit worse. Could we end up with an August similar to 2004? Possibly.. the heat is there in the Atlantic to fuel tropical elements.
Anyway, not a bad summer. June starting very good which made me think we were in for another 2003 (I didn't understand the concept of a 'front loaded' summer back then. July was the month that let it down though.