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LeeKay/

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  1. I see Estofex has a 'extended forecast' issued for Sunday 12th May.

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    Quote for the UK/France:

    ... France into UK ...

    An extensive surface pressure channel, filled with an unstable and moist airmass will be the focus for scattered to widespread CI. For France, very weak shear at all levels assists in numerous growing but rather disorganized clusters. Initiating cells, which take profit of weakly capped 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE will pose a temporal hail and wind gust threat, but heavy rain becomes the main issue betimes. Current idea is that parts of NE France could see a rainfall-driven upgrade due to better forcing.
    During the overnight hours, this risk also translates to Switzerland/far N-Italy with heavy rain the main risk.

    DLS increases somewhat towards UK so a bit more progressive clusters lower the overall convective rainfall risk. Repeated thunderstorms could bring heavy rain on a local scale. Isolated hail and a few funnel reports (rich LL CAPE) accompany thunderstorms. This activity weakens after sunset.

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    https://www.estofex.org/

    2024051306_202405101440_1_extendedforecast.xml.png

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