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Everything posted by 03jtrickey
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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
03jtrickey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
From my understanding the deterministic forecast (i.e. operational run) calculates one particular outcome/forecast at high resolution based on one set of initial weather conditions (which are estimated based on observations). However, the initial weather conditions can never be perfectly known due to incomplete geographic coverage of weather observation networks and uncertainty in measurements etc. To account for this uncertainty, ensemble predictions are created by running the same model multiple times at a lower resolution using a range of slightly perturbed/adjusted (but still plausible) initial weather conditions as input data. Examining the range of different forecasts that result from the set of slightly different weather conditions gives an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast and allows the deterministic run to be considered in the context of these possible outcomes (e.g. mild outlier etc.). However the deterministic run is still valuable because its higher resolution resolves weather features better, particularly small scale features that may be critical for how a forecast develops. -
Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
03jtrickey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Deterministic -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards
03jtrickey replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Agreed - spectacular storms near Peterborough today. I was out cycling with a friend at the time, near Nassington and it took us by surprise. At one point there were 3 simultaneous CG lightning strikes! -
Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>
03jtrickey replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Very loud thunder at work in Pboro earlier. Storm right overhead. -
Could have been me! I've just got back from a cycle ride wih a friend from Oxford. We sheltered in Church Hanborough Church during the thunderstorm - heavy rain, regular thunder and a bit of lightning.
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I wonder whether it might backbuild and join up with echoes appearing just west of Winchester
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Regular lightning to northeast of Oxford!
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Just seen the Estofex forecast for tomorrow - it'll be just my luck if all hell breaks loose in Peterborough now I'm down in Oxford for the weekend! Level 2 warning out there...
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Storm and convective discussion 9th June
03jtrickey replied to Paul's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Thunder in Peterborough -
Convective / storm Discussion - 22nd May 2014 onwards
03jtrickey replied to Liam J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm glad to be based in Peterborough on days like this!- 942 replies
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Convective / storm Discussion - 22nd May 2014 onwards
03jtrickey replied to Liam J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Very impressive and prolonged storm here in Peterborough today, on and off from about 3pm to 445pm. Several very close strikes and some gunshot type thunder. Mostly intercloud lightning. Intense rainfall and hail thrown in too.- 942 replies
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Impressive footage from Ireland
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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3
03jtrickey replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm currently in Northern France (Arras) and will be crossing the channel by rail tomorrow. Very much looking forward to seeing the effects of this storm and it looks like I may be well placed to witness some intense wind gusts! -
Convective / Storm Discussion - 23rd August onwards 2013
03jtrickey replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Thunder and lightning in Peterborough -
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 13th August 2013>
03jtrickey replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Thunder and lightning in Peterborough (just moved here with a new job)- 716 replies
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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ----->
03jtrickey replied to A.J's topic in Regional
I cycled from Oxford to Cheltenham last night and it was snowing heavily on the tops of the Cotswolds but not settling. Will be returning this afternoon. -
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 13th March 2013
03jtrickey replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
I was really not expecting to wake up to heavy snow this morning! Impressive intensity and large flakes... (in Oxford)- 795 replies
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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>
03jtrickey replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Just got up to impressively heavy snow here in Oxford! Totally unexpected! -
South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/02/13 23z ------->
03jtrickey replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Amazing what your tiny bit of elevation difference makes! There's only a patchy cm or so of snow in the city centre. Perhaps the urban heat island effect has an impact here too. -
South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/02/13 23z ------->
03jtrickey replied to A.J's topic in Regional
I'm in Oxford at the moment -
South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/02/13 23z ------->
03jtrickey replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Enormous flakes now! Maybe 4cm in diameter.