03jtrickey
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Posts posted by 03jtrickey
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Looks like Kidlington got quite a bit of action - only a few miles north of here.
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So close...but probably no cigar here in Oxford! I did hear a rumble though which made me check the radar...
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There was lightning and a clap of thunder in Oxford a few hours ago. The cell at 7:35pm.
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Was the hail really a whole 2mm in diameter? Or have you missed a 0 off?!!
Well it certainly wasn't 2cm in diameter! But looking at a ruler, it was probably more like 4-5mm in diameter. It wasn't so much the size of the hail as the intensity of it that was impressive.
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Was out cycling on Brill Hill, near Oxford. Three big forks of lightning in the distance behind a dramatic shelf cloud. 15 minutes later, torrential rain turning to thick 2mm diameter hail. A few close lightning strikes and thunder. It was a very wet, but enjoyable experience!
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Still waiting for a proper thunderstorm! I'm back in Oxford now but think the fairly electrified one nearby is going to pass just too far south!
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Fairly heavy hail here in Cheltenham
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A good inch of snow in Oxford
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Yes, quite a significant shift east - more promising for Oxfordshire!
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Slightly disappointed that it's now raining in Oxford. We have about an inch and a half ... maybe two inches of snow outside. Now just hoping the front clears quickly so that some of it lasts until morning!
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Ahhh...being at uni has its downsides...
I'm amazed to hear of snow in Cheltenham today! I just saw a Facebook status about people struggling to get up Cleeve Hill in the snow and did a double take. Very localised.
This pic on twitter too:
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Looks like some sort of easterly to me.
That was the 0Z run - it hasn't updated yet
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you got it. What is interesting is how well these have verified since October. One would have thought, the further away from the event the more diffuse the impacts, but apparently still remarkably good hemispheric fit nearly 60 days after the event, and with a strong polar vortex which has only had subtle differences in terms of the polward positioning of ridges and troughs.
Thanks GP, this is really helpful.
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However, other likely teleconnective signals suggest something polar opposite.
Based on the continued analysis of the MJO wave (October), our December H5 pattern looks like this..
and compare to the MJO composites..
That's a continued good match across the Northern Hemisphere for the major centres of positive and negative height anomalies and current GFS and ECM ensemble means are not likely to destroy this match so far. Rolled forward, our MJO analogues suggest this pattern for January...
A return to northern blocking ?
Thank you for your insightful post GP.
I am fairly new to these teleconnections and have a few questions about the MJO analogues.
As I understand it, the first chart I have quoted is the anomaly for the first half of this month, and the second is the average anomaly for years with similar MJO conditions, the match demonstrating the predictive power of the MJO. But what I don't understand is how the MJO is 'rolled forward' to create the third chart. Is this based on model predictions for the MJO state, which are then used to create composite anomalies based on Januaries with MJO phases similar to those forecast for January? Or are they simply based on 'what happened before' i.e. taking years with similar to present MJO conditions and plotting the average of what subsequently happened?
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Well interesting drive back across the Cotswolds...
Rain/sleet as I left Cheltenham, heading back up towards leckhamption it was more of a sleet/hail combination. Things died down for 10 mins or so, and then moderate sleet for a while, then just outside northleach almost a blizzard of hail, blown in and along the road on vey gusty winds (struggling to keep control of the car at the times with things very slippy under wheel), which lasted for about 25 mins of the journey (I think I drove all the way through it).....then not much until just outside Witney (on the way to Oxford) when again extremely heavy hail set in....this then started transitioning between hail and snow as I got closer to Oxford with near zero visibility. This then turned to big fluffy flakes of snow through the ring road around Oxford, and this continued up until about a mile or so onto the M40 (again I think I drove all the way through it). After that by the time I got to the M25 it had gone from 0.5c up to a barmy 7c!
The colder uppers digging in certainly keeping showery activity going, I think I'm about to get hot back here in Essex by the cell I passed through in Oxford!
Kris
I cycled back from Cheltenham to Oxford yesterday and experienced much the same sort of thing! I couldn't feel my feet by the time I got back... it started off raining as I went up Leckhampton Hill, then turned sleety around Yanworth. Near Northleach there was then heavy wet snow for a time, before it brightened up and then sleeted until I reached Burford. Sunny until Oxford, but it snowed for a bit when I got back.
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Currently heavy rain here in Cheltenham, there have been sporadic bursts of torrential hail and two very loud claps of thunder :-D Completely unexpected as well!
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The Glen Ogle gust is the highest I've seen so far but will wait for confirmation from the Met Office (they'll probably post a more definitive summary of the storm sometime in the next few days).
Apologies for the confusion about high level sites, I should have made the boundaries more specific. I wanted to avoid people going for stations that were clearly on the tops of mountains, like Cairngorm and Glen Coe or Snowdon etc. I didn't realise Glen Ogle was so high up (564m), but it is an official Met Office station. Capel Curig is definitely low level.
In the interests of fairness I therefore propose two winners, one for guessing the location (likely to be Glen Ogle), and the other for guessing the wind speed value closest to the actual gust
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Just breezy here.
13mph gusts.
Will have to wait and see, but i think the major wind will be north or here..
Did someone mention that the storm is coming in later than expected?
I'm in the countryside just to the west of Gloucester (Taynton) at the moment and it's quite blustery here. Probably an average of 20mph gusting 40 at the moment judging by nearby weather stations and looking outside.
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Already an 82mph gust at Capel Curig.
Looking at the map, with a southwesterly wind at Capel Curig, the wind will be descending down over Snowdon and getting funnelled along the Nantygwryd valley before reaching the weather station, so it really is in a prime spot for high gusts in these conditions.
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Latest GFS 6Z has an extratropical Hurricane Maria gracing our shores into FI...
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Trust me to miss out on the 'massive downpour'...just 14 miles away from home and it actually gets some vaguely interesting weather!
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Mum just came in: "have you heard about the hurricane on the way?"
Ugh, I hate the Express! And the shoddy sensationalist journalism around these events which misleads the general public to believe that the storm will hit the whole country, when it's actually going to affect mainly northern areas...so on Tuesday there'll probably be loads of people moaning that forecasters got it wrong with cries of 'where's the hurricane?' etc . . .
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/270321
They could at least make it very clear that it's not a hurricane any more...but that wouldn't sell papers I suppose...
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I've just started a new 'guess the gust' thread here:
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70966-ex-katia-guess-the-gust/
I remember having these in past years for other storms so decided to start one for Ex Katia
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Wow!