03jtrickey
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Posts posted by 03jtrickey
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Heavy wet snow here
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Sleety rain here
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I have a few thoughts:
- would there be any way of showing the ppt. intensity as a value when you hover over an area with the mouse?
- is it possible to limit the amount of time the ppt. disappears for in between viewing each frame?
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Warnings have been upgraded:
http://metoffice.com/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2
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24mm of something within the next 48 hours, according to latest NAE. Certainly has the potential to be very serious if it does fall as snow. Waiting for the precip type to update on the NAE. If it is showing snow I wouldn't be surprised if the Met Office upgrades the warnings.
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Latest NW radar showing ppt. changing to snow near Cheltenham. Currently raining here, but the rain looks a little icy.
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This feels a bit like Deja Vu after the previous time we had a sudden NAE upgrade back in January, when we ended up with 15cm of snow. Interesting to see how it verifies this time.
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I think I will be wise in postponing my cycling trip until the weather calms down a bit.
At least I will be able to enjoy a potentially interesting period of weather; thanks for the update Ian!
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Looking at this chart here:
I'm thinking what is stopping that deep cold air to the NE from breaking through?
In the short term there seems to be a lot of potential for marginal heavy snowfall in places, starting tomorrow, then Thursday. A very unsettled week ahead and a true forecaster's nightmare.
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Yes, and on Thursday the NAE has a fat 22mm over us. 22mm of what?
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Sod's law the snow comes back just when you don't want it! Considering I have been planning to cycle off tomorrow, you can almost guarantee we will have a good fall
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If you are still around Ian, can you offer any guidance for the period Weds-Fri? Is there much risk of snow across the region? Or is it likely to be transient/undisruptive
I am contemplating cycling out to the Brecons... need to get away for a few days
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Really looking forward to spring now. I can't understand why some are still pining after more cold and snow! It's been a great winter but I'm tired of the cold weather and like Bristle boy, unless it's going to really snow I am now hoping for some much warmer weather.
Also I'm on half term and I am thinking of cycling over to the Brecons later in the week, but I'm waiting before I book a place to stay, in case of nuisance wet snow! I don't want to get caught out.
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There is now an advisory out for 5-10cm snow on Tuesday!
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I'll be up at 735am before 6th form tomorrow morning... party tomorrow night though, then it's half term...
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Thanks Ian, good night and hopefully the forecast goes according to plan!
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Ian, do you think snow will feature much in next week's forecast? It seems a very messy picture at the moment.
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Looking good to me so far out to +102.
Everything a tad further west, by about 75 miles.
Cold air slightly further south by +102 than on the 12Z, around the Scandinavian low.
http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100203/18/102/h850t850eu.png
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Is this doing anyone else's head in? As soon as the UKMO finally comes on board, the ECM and GFS flip back to the Atlantic-dominated theme. I don't know what to think any more. The amount of times the models and entire ensembles have frequently changed radically in such a short timeframe is incredible.
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Looking very good!
One thing I noticed however is that if you change the opacity to say 100% and then change the time, the opacity will go back to about 50% or whatever it was originally. If this can be kept the same throughout then that would be brilliant
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Glacier Point's post from last night is well worth reading this morning:
It really highlights the uncertainty. I am picking out one bit that seems particularly relevant.
I think it would be safe to allow for minimum 14-28 days to see the impacts of the warming of the stratosphere work through. That places us into mid February before realistically expecting any heights raised by the warming event. In my view, the models have been way to progressive and failed to cope with this aspect.
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Thanks Ian,
It's good to have you back on here again!
Interesting thoughts from the Met Office.
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Firefox is the way to go... :-)
Any idea when the beta will be online?
South West England Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A very unsettled picture, looking at the radar! Potent looking areas of precipitation to the south.