Valleyboy
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Posts posted by Valleyboy
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5 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:
To be pedantic, December 2010 was a more north easterly.
This is the point I am making. A direct northerly will be modified temps wise. We need the shorted sea crossing, so a polar continental feed is much better, as was December 2010 and December 1981. Those months were mainly continental feed, which is what I am hoping any northerly will end up turning into.
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16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
That's about as much as a ramp as you can get from the Met Office at that range.
There’s nothing to ramp if it is a northerly, as it’ll be a damp squib. We need to look east for real wintry weather. Hopefully, any northerly will back north east, east.
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Short term - a sustained easterly flow up to the weekend, slightly colder uppers will be dragged in by then and it will feel very raw for most, possible wintryiness in any showers down to modest levels in the north I would think. Quite a bit of cloud, but in any breaks further west always threat of frost and fog.
Its from the 5th, that date again things become more interesting. Weak shallow trough/shortwave feature to our south notwithstanding the main theme is the transferal of heights to Greenland and the PV locked on the N Asian side wanting to move away and drop some of its energy. This is a much bigger force than the weak lower pressure feature to the south, and the way GFS develops this against the greenland high and PV looks very suspect to me. ECM shows a clean transition to somethign substantively colder and wintry from the north - Dec 09/10 redux anyone?
The problem is, it won’t be substantially colder from the north. Too much sea to cross which will modify temperatures. We really need cold pools developing from the east. 09/10 was mostly continental cold, not northerlies.
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Forget beast from the east it looks more like a beast from the north incoming on the gfs!!!
You really don’t get northerly beasts! It just doesn’t happen.
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
here she comes.......
No northerlies please, they only look good on paper. On the ground, very little to excite us, especially in the south. I’ll put up with northerlies, providing they eventually back northeast / east.
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Just now, nick sussex said:
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with having a good moan about a particular model run.
This doesn’t mean it’s assumed the run will verify . The ECM is pants at day ten and a waste of good blocking . Hopefully it corrects se east in line with the ensemble mean .
Yes, but too much over analysis on every single run is tiresome. Many in this forum will know that 10 days out isn’t worth worrying about, but memories are short. Best to look at the overall trend and pattern being shown, which in the current case is very good for coldies.
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11 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:
Notice the much lower heights (greens) in 1962 compared to this morning +240 ECM (Europe covered in yellow)
Any snowfall from that ECM chart would be very limited, we need lower heights to instil much greater instability to get proper snow from an easterly
The current high SSTs won’t help either.
Plenty of time for upgrades
Andy
Depends on the wind direction really. Winds north of east will bring plenty of snow showers across the country. The North Sea will be a big snow making machine this winter.
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7 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Close to 20 c North Wales coast should the ECM come off?
No. That would be a cold south easterly flow. No mild temperatures there.
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42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Why are coldies getting their knickers in a twist over very mild in first half November ?
never a problem to see a buckled jet and an amplified pattern driving WAA into the Arctic - when it’s not actually winter proper …. And even during winter, that can be a precursor of cold
Anyone worried about a mild autumn, should look at Autumn 1978.
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22 minutes ago, Catacol said:
It may well be that 2021/22 goes into the pile, containing around 80% of our winters, where a sheet labelled "disappointing" is clipped to the top. Of course....one man's offal is another man's steak....and if you live in Athens and enjoy snow games you will have a somewhat different view! We need to be realistic ultimately and accept that most years will result in disappointment. And of the pile containing the other 20% of winters few of them have more than a week or so of lowland snow. There are one or two exceptions like 2010....but even the "classic" spells such as Jan 87 were short. 1947 and 1963 look complete outliers compared to the patterns we have to deal with now in a climate changed world.
Think you’ve missed a fair few other winters with long cold spells, both ends of 2010 were extended cold spells and many early 80’s winters had long snowy spells, and not forgetting 1978/79.
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24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
That’ll be cold enough on day 11 for snow, if it happened obviously!!
Snow only on high ground in the north. There’s just too much moderation with this set up.
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20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Lots of negativity here which I guess looking at the charts is east to see why , however the action starts as the high moving in over the U.K. starts to move West - this is between day 7-9 and still pretty much in FI!!
If we had a cold spell forecast at day 7-9 all those negative types will say it will fail and won’t happen, well maybe this lack of ridging will be wrong too and we’ll end up with a monster ridge and brutal northerly.
Over to the ECM to put some cheers back into this forum
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The thing is, northerlies are never brutal. It’s a sign of desperation when people wish for northerlies, as they only look good on paper, they never deliver to the bulk of the country.
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4 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Another fact CC when winter 1947 is quoted but is forgotten, is that the first half of the winter was not actually mild. It was a fairly cold winter overall up to the start of the truely exceptional spell. A lot of people think it was a mild winter until the severe spell struck, that might be another reason why it is frequented quoted to give an example of a "mild winter turning severe...late"
The first half of winter 1947 was mild, 14c was widely recorded that January.
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33 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
As horrendous a chart for cold you could find.
Really? temps dropping slightly, ok not a cold spell but something colder could evolve from that set up.
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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:I'm not sure how the second half of January is still up for grabs.
Your chart takes us to mid month, and if that chart is correct, we would be at least another 10 days away from proper cold.
So, no chance of cold until late January at the very earliest and zero sign of anything then too.
All these negative comments are depressing to be honest, No sign of cold, don’t sugar coat it etc. All these comments are based on the assumption that the charts are correct! 7 days prior to Christmas the charts were showing a cold Christmas, even the mainstream weather forecasters were going for at least a predominantly dry Christmas period and look how that turned out! It couldn’t have been more wrong! Charts should always be taken with a large pinch of salt. Also remember that cold outbreaks tend to appear at relatively short notice.
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6 minutes ago, jon snow said:
Looking at the Gfs 12z operational…I do love the smell of napalm in the morning..I mean a cold westerly!!! …it smells like victory!!!!!!!
Unfortunately that won’t be cold, not what most are looking for anyway.
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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
One event does NOT make a rule
There has never been any proof of this idea
That’s what I’m saying John. If the correlation between warm Septembers and the following winters were true, then this theory was completely bust in 78/79 which was the coldest winter since 62/63. Weather doesn’t work like that, it’s too chaotic.
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10 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:
It's got that desperate in here tonight that some are actually talking about how a warm September as possibly squandered winter! Really! There's no scientific link of this whatsoever and all I'm seeing is some looking for every irrational excuse to point the finger at another failed winter attempt...If it was further into February I would say OK.. complain away...give your reasons for what went wrong...but far too much time is being spent on how this winter has gone wrong when it's barely 4 weeks old..
I'm know longer really interested in what the LRF models are saying regarding the forthcoming winters as its blatantly obvious they will be catering in global warming to a big extreme and coming up with a milder than normal outlook...the models that will really deserve credit will be the ones that pick out the signals for a colder than normal season. We all know that every season that comes along now the met will put it down as warmer than average! You just wait...when spring comes around I can guarantee you they will state its gonna be warmer than average...and when next winter comes around it will be....yes you guessed it more likely to be Warmer than average.
Rrrr...those damned teleconnections...in all honesty In a warming world I'm beginning to lose my patience and faith in them..sorry to those that study them and no offence intended...but a few weeks back all I was hearing was how really favourable signals look like they could deliver for us...fast forward a few weeks later and most of them signals have fallen apart!
With massive changes now occurring within our oceans and atmospheres,I think some of these teleconnections are really struggling to make out which way we are heading...and hand on heart...I think its perhaps worth considering that the experts Start developing some newer apparatus to work out what the hell is going on.
2 weeks ahead is a very long way in weather forecasting...there currently may be know sign of significant cold but this time tomorrow there may be! An ssw could still take hold towards months end...and there's probably not a model out there that could hint at that scenario right now. All is not lost...and if we are gonna start calling it every year at the end of December...we may as just well call it time right now and save ourselves the bother in future by jumping straight into spring.
But I can guarantee there will be some who keep playing this warming climate card on our poor winters,who will be going crazy again come summer if the weather is cool and cloudy...with I fail to see how climate change is having any affect.
I still think we may have a few things pop up in the shorter term regarding some colder shots and wintry interests...and I would just like to point out how many are saying how we missed out big time on a wintry episode around Xmas,and how it all went wrong.....not really....there was never cross model agreement or any real consistency for it in the first place...it was ropey to say the least.
But hang on in there we have time...if we have time we have hope...never give in hope until all hope is lost.
September 1978 was warm, and look what followed!
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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:Partly, though in a warmer world we will often have smaller cold pools to tap into, particularly earlier in the winter. We will still get severe cold spells but it'll be more like threading through the eye of a needle.... everything falling in the right place for this to happen.
Only exception to this is when we get a particularly extreme atmospheric circulation pattern, such as the high which dragged an air mass all the way from Siberia in March 2018 or the big Greenland high in December 2010, these cold pools, especially in March 2018 were so big the cold spell couldn't really fail. In the past, cold pools close to our east were often deeper.... so we didn't require such unusual atmospheric circulation patterns. I think that is why we see more cold spells failing in the model output, it's not as easy anymore.
December can be different as surface cold can build but we have to get very lucky for that to happen.
One saying I always agree with in this forum is when people say get the cold in first and the rest will follow, it never really happened last week and some deeper cold would have caused more trough disruption.
The cold spells didn’t exist in the first place, the models were just wrong. The world hasn’t warmed that much, and as mentioned previously, most 70’s winters were mild and snowless, so nothing has really changed, apart from one of the coldest Decembers on record in 2010, and more recent March low daytime temperature records broken. We are spoilt today with these models, previously we never new when cold spells were coming until they were imminent.
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26 minutes ago, DCee said:
Mattwolves "just look at the cold on tap to our NE....fine margins all of this and it wouldn't take much for us to end up in the fridge freezer! It's more finely balanced than many realise."
I disagree. It takes an awful lot and the margins are large and very difficult to overcome, even if you could get to that scenario (which is unlikely).
The margins are not large. There was cross model agreement on a cold spell last week that disappeared quicker than a pint of stellar in my hand! So why are you looking at the same models and taking a mild set up as set in stone? If and when the cold weather wants to advance over the UK, it will just do that!, large margins don’t exist in the weather world, it’s just chaotic and that’s why forecasting has advanced little in the last 40 years.
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5 hours ago, geordiekev said:
Dare We Dream?
I wouldn’t dream, with low pressure over Scandinavia, you’ll just pull northerlies travelling over large expanse of water. Worst direction for most. We need a scandi high to bring the continental cold weather all coldies crave.
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2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:
Lol, you know the game is up when someone mentions the mild weather before the 1947 big freeze!
Really? Wasn’t commenting in relation to any upcoming cold spell, just stating a fact that mild temperatures showing doesn’t mean a cold spell won’t follow. Happens often in the UK.
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24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
I'm surprised at all the anguish (even a degree of denial?) at the chance of seeing 15C at New Year. . . I may very well be wrong here, but wasn't 15C recorded on New Year's Day 1982? Please bear in mind that memory and old-age are not always the best of bedfellows!
I wouldn’t be concerned about mild temperatures showing either. It was very mild prior to the 1947 big freeze
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25 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Bang goes the theory that a True greenland high is the answer to all our prayers
If it isn’t showing a scandi high, don’t bother.
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Might be ok, that low would correct south, so would end up a snow event for some.