Valleyboy
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Posts posted by Valleyboy
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49 minutes ago, MJB said:
Totally agree , they clearly don't understand charts
Its not that they don't understand, its that they have been here before with models backtracking, and that often starts with the delay of any cold.
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Just now, Vikos said:
Why? Because it doesn't match ones favour? Thats wishful thinking but not synoptical logic.
I only follow the ECM, so can’t comment on the other models. The latest ECM output looks completely plausible and I expect it to be correct. We do have a cold spell coming, but any low ground snow will be marginal. High ground will do well again. My advice is to stick with one model, and view it once a day, this will keep you grounded and help with your sanity. There are too many emotional ups and downs on this forum. Remember, it’s only weather, and with bigger things to worry about at the moment, it puts everything into perspective.
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2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Yippee! And hooray it gets there was around day 10..
If this winter panned out like the day 10 model outputs, the UK would’ve had a winter colder and snowier than any previous winter ever! I’m giving this winter 4 more weeks, before my attention turns to spring, warmer weather, vaccine roll out etc.
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3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
Is it just me or has this winter ECM just been rubbish? The constant flopping around when we thought we had agreement, then it goes off to spoil the party all to be flopped back again on the next run.. Something has to be going on.. How can GFS be relatively stable (considering) minor up/downgrades and ECM just does a whole pattern change?
HAS TO BE A MILD OUTLIER.. A MASSIVE ONE at the end of the ensembles.I love the comments. When the Ecm shows a total freeze up, it’s the king of the models. When it shows milder conditions, it’s the worse model out there, and it must be an outlier!
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25 minutes ago, Drifter said:
I just can’t understand the driving force for the low just twonking through west-east with hardly any disruption or deviation.
Regardless of any background signals, i.e. SSW, one thing that is rarely mentioned but is a constant, it the earths rotation. This is the main driver. Now if we could just reverse this, we would be in a great place!
27 minutes ago, MJB said:Low after Low coming our way , just why is this ? I would have expected a quieter time
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4 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
It’s the early bird that catches the snow ! . To be precise I left house in dark set of on 10km round trip to Reigate Hill.
snow started here around 5:30 am and lasted I guess max 2.5 hours . Set off through Reigate Park then onwards uphill . Was great at top , windy and very cold . At least we got a snow fix . Got home at 9:30 missus still in bed sleeping . Pleased I went really enjoyed the morning
There should never been an amber warning.
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1 minute ago, Hammer said:
I suspect I am pretty well placed for tomorrow here in East Hertfordshire/ West Essex.
I will of course report during tomorrow morning.
You are in a good place, there could be an amber warning for the south east.
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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Feels like its unravelling Nick...
And I'm not sure Exeter saw this coming either judging by the upgrade yesterday ...
Todays update will be interesting to say the very least, I suspect they will stick with the script but a big 24 hours for coldies coming up...it about time we had some luck!!!
Although it isn’t great viewing this morning, I would wait before getting too downbeat about cold prospects. I believe we should look north east for a pressure rise (Scandi high). Too much has been made of the Greenland high prospects over the past few weeks, but I believe there will be a westward advance of the Russian high, which will be a game changer.
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6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Looks like the signal for a severe cold spell is diminishing by the day with fewer members going below -10c and more milder options appearing.
I commented yesterday that the models took a backward step for a cold spell. This trend is now firmly on the table and if this continues on the next few runs, then we’ll be looking at a much milder outlook. It’s fine to drool over charts that are 10 days out, but it’s going to be a long winter of model watching, we’ve all been here before, when eventually that freeze up that’s 10 days away, takes us into spring time.
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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
WOW!!!
ECM at day ten,...YES,day ten but what a corker.
If you like wet weather. We need a continental feed.
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2 hours ago, phil nw. said:
If you read my post i commented how the changes to the 500 pattern have been counting down to within 10 days now.The switch to cold will develop from there but a step backwards it ain't.
All the charts are disappointing to be honest. All looking marginal on low ground.
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1 minute ago, phil nw. said:
Looks ok with GFS and UKMO showing the initial retrogression of the ridging towards Greenland now at day 6 ie.18th.This date has been on modeling for a number of runs now.
It will be few days before the mists clear on how cold the uppers will be.The main thing is the 2 features ie Scandi.trough and G.heights are being developed pretty much consistently now and within the expected time scale.
Remember when these features were first shown 10 days and beyond -the trend to cold is still good.Details for later.
Latest charts underwhelming and a step backwards. I think we’ll get there, but need to see timescale reducing. This 10 day stuff will take us to spring time if this carries on
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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:
Don’t no what to make of t144 UKMO ?
Rather cold with rain incoming. Difficult to say after that. Very confused picture at the moment.
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2 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:
We don't know that until the outcome is verified all could quite easily flip back to unfavourable synoptics but really hope you are right
I'm not sharing the love for the ECM charts. They look ok but we want better than the recent cold spell, which hardly delivered. We want deeper cold than whats on offer tonight, hopefully we will see upgrades on future runs.
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There’s been a lot of booms this morning. My advice is to wait for the main models to agree 4 / 5 days out, then confidence can be high, especially if UKMO is on board. You can then boom away!
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3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:
Lock it in....
Would be historic.
That’s got SSW written all over it.
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15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
OMG the para is the holy grail .
Yep, that’s what we want, a true beast with incoming snow.
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38 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Almost impossible to figure out what the outlook is going to be. I feel the usual scenario will occur around 12/13th Jan as we see a shift W of the high pressure to our NE and less progress from the Atlantic. Whilst I wouldn't expect this to change to sudden cold E,lys the effects of which have a knock on effect later on.
We then have the added complication of the Arctic high and polar vortex bringing a bitterly cold airmass to NE Europe. The effects on the UK could be a bitterly cold, convective cold spell or a moderately cold spell but with battleground blizzards or even both. l haven't included the milder option because as I said in the covid thread, I do not want to see a severe cold spell this winter. I bet it will be sods law we get one when this is the last thing the country needs!
Past experience makes me think that easterlies will show up at short notice, so 5 days out, rather than 10 days out that we keep seeing on the models. The next seven days of model watching will be very interesting as the models sniff out a genuine cold solution. I think most on here would be delighted with a severe cold spell, at least it would keep people at home.
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1 hour ago, That ECM said:
Its 300 plus hours away if it gets to t72 then will worry about the details.
I didn’t mention detail. Viewing that chart in isolation, would suggest marginality for much of the UK. It could evolve into something much better though.
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18 minutes ago, That ECM said:
The two air masses are going to meet in the channel, perfect well done gfs. It’s also a south of the M4 event..
Unfortunately we would be back to marginality, which is not what most people on here want. The air sourced from the north is always moderated to a point where people get frustrated, especially the southern contingent. A step in the right direction though.
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16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
ECM looks like a SSW response? Sudden reduction in North Atlantic zonal component?
This is the evolution I would expect, my only concern is any knock on effect if the USA goes into the freezer, which could power up the Atlantic. I guess the SSW would counter that.
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4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
The GFSP is one of the strangest runs ive ever looked at.
Low pressure after low pressure train from the eastern seaboard brushing the south coast while still in -5 and -6 upper temperatures due to the jet being pushed rediculously south and no vortex anywhere in sight!!
Bizarre!
Anyone hazard a guess at ground conditions?
We would probably have imported colder air by then so 2 - 3 degrees daytime max. The lows could help bring in colder easterlies, so it is difficult to read so far out. You can’t compare it to today’s meh air flow that is still producing rain showers. Different scenario. I would suggest it would be snow.
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Control going down a similar route to the op- maybe a tad better. However if this is the path we go, we need to pull that Atlantic trough further SE...otherwise it'll draw mild southerlies up like on the op
Looks perfectly positioned.
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7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Wow, this place is electric tonight. All looking increasingly positive for a solid easterly.
Interesting to see the models picking up a trend for a channel low. Something to keep an eye on.
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
All marginal, similar to what we have today, weather wise. Incoming rain with snow on elevation. The uppers are not cold enough, as shown on the charts. Could change closer to the time, that’s if 10 day charts ever become reality.