[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Are you referring to 1947?

If you are, there wasn't a Nina in effect in that year.

Apologies im dyslexic I havmt made that overly clear! I meant im researching the perfect 1/2/3 scenario in a nina year as in researching possibilities in this base state and that the last the 1/2/3 scenario played out was in 1947

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

So am I correct in saying the expectation is for a 'mainly' cold December, followed by a relaxation of the cold towards the end of December into the new year. Then the main course from mid Jan? 

Mainly cold unsettled with some snow for elevation maybe down to lower levels as we build our own cold pool (a la Steve murr) followed by a bening but cold end to December courtesy of high pressure moving back over to the west of us. A stormy first half of January as we flush down the zonal winds and as you say main course middle to end of January into February. It is dependant on a ssw being the correct call but confidence is relatively high of getting one currently in my eyes. Knowing natural wavelengths in feb in nina years I'd expect any Northern blocking to take hold Griceland which is holy grail! But let's see! Some caveats....this early December period is still capable of a surprise or two if we can build up enough surface cold from the cold pool. Think of troughs bumping into cold stagnant air from the nort west or south and if the uk high then gets high enough and east enough that could also be cold with snow held on the ground. There is potential for this winter to be very good but the dice would have to fall perfectly for them two caveats to happen followed by the ssw

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah there has been some discussion from a few on here today earlier that if you can get a strong enough upper high developing it will help to disrupt any developing PV. Anything that can keep the PV from coupling up through the atmosphere is a good thing obviously.

The 18z looks a little flat for my liking though, and its rather different quite a few of the ensembles from both the EC and GFS that are trying to keep it at least somewhat amplified, even if it isn't necessarily to our benefit always.

Yes most of the time a rampant PV is almost a death knell to winters prospects but there is a reason why not every winter reads a script. The atmosphere isn't behaving in a nina state just yet. Im simple terms. If we were in a nina state the tropical convection wouldn't get much past the Indian Ocean as the easterly winds would scrub out the westerly winds. As it is the base state is allowing the tropical convection further west. If you add the huge eamt event recently all the talk of winter over after mid January I believe is very premature. Now what we basically have is almost a neutral base state with low solar and low sea ice. This is the perfect combination for a ssw. To go with this you still need the mid lat highs in early winter set up in the right place. We do have this. The russianscandi block and upcoming western European trough in my opinion is going to create a very rare chance of am early end of December winter warming. What im saying is we have a watered down nina set up with soon to be Greenland pressure rise (tho not sustainable) bringing a cold snap but its the perfect blend. This Greenland pressure rise creates a trough in Western Europe against and unusually strong scandi block in a nina year. In a nina year this is where youd expect the trough to be. Its not its further west due to tropical convection and low sea ice in the kara and it means to me actually due to a ssw tje coldest period will have end of January and most of Feb. Im researching tje perfect 1/2/3 scenario in a nina year. The last time was 47 this scenario played out 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Thank you 

Is there a discussion for technical opinions where you don't get patronized and picked apart by people that don't understand the science. I know Tamara has also been put off at times 100% due to the nature of the new science involved.

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Cut the bickering and snide comments out, please?

Ta.

Thank you 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

gfs pub run just reinforces my own personal opinion,Russian high in total charge,and edging 

west words to Scandinavia.Cold continental easterly flow to win over Atlantic.

 

This is a good thing. We want this close as we want the western European trough to drive against this and push some heat up into the strat 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Um. What?  I was being genuine. 

I don't have access unfortunately, the ones I've posted were taken from others who had posted them on Twitter. I take back what I said previously though, you're clearly just here to do some trolling. Bizarre response there.

Clever response. I'll continue to keep my knowledge and work i do to myself. Just keep an eye out for some papers on the subject on the 17th of December 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Do you have access to the AAM/GWO charts? Seems like you know what you're talking about! Seeing them would be a huge help

Yes and so do you MET4cast as ive seen you post them. Im not here to have my views picked apart. I don't post often as I work researching future meteorology. Comments like that patronizing are what put me off commentating in the first place. Get a grip and some respect 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It sounds like mumbo jumbo to me. The movement of trop PV is mostly down to big +PNA event the big ridging in western North America gives a big shove to Eurasia.  

Ans its angular momentum that creates this amplification. It doesn't just happen randomly its all part of an angular momentum budget so excuse me its not mumbo jumbo. Tamara I'm sure would explain as I dont have the time to get into it. But it's not "mumbo jumbo"

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its the second layer of angular momentum that drives dense cold away from an increase in easterly trade winds also driven by a higher gwo orbit. Its the first stage of 3 ssw precursors. Something studied by nasa currently not know by many in British meteorology but will all be made available soon. From the model I have been lucky to see there is a 45% chance of a ssw between the 19th and 29th of December 

2010 had a huge eamt event that did a similar thing. But it was a bigger event than what is seen this year. The difference this year is we already have a huge Russian HP moving west. The torque event will drive the Greenland pressure rises the resultant trough dropping into western Europe against an advancing russian/Scandinavian block and Aleutian low is the second stage of the 3 stage process. We didn't have such a huge pressure rise to the east in 2010 to give us a ssw chance. This set up has the potential to deliver a long period of below average temperatures if we follow December with high pressure over the uk then the results of the ssw kicks in

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Just before the pub run (with pie and chips every pint of course) does anyone know exactly what has driven this very obvious shift of the developing trop vortex away from Greenland and Canada?  It isn’t the strat, I’m sure.  Look’s like it is in a hurry too, can’t run fast enough to get away (GFS 12z T192):

Is this just random chance, because it sure looks unusual to me, not complaining mind you!!

Its the second layer of angular momentum that drives dense cold away from an increase in easterly trade winds also driven by a higher gwo orbit. Its the first stage of 3 ssw precursors. Something studied by nasa currently not know by many in British meteorology but will all be made available soon. From the model I have been lucky to see there is a 45% chance of a ssw between the 19th and 29th of December