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Hotspur62

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Hotspur62

    Another day same old weather.Pretty much like yesterday ,which was another washout with rain starting about 10.45 and finally stopped about4!!Gone to work this morning got soaked again and currently sitting in van waiting for it to stop.Reckon by 11.30 we should have a good 6 hour dry spell🤞Never known a spell of weather like this in 20 years of doing garden maintenance (this current pattern of weather started about mid October 2023 and shows no sign of letting up for at least another 2 weeks!).Really is exceptional in a negative way although at least there won’t be any water restrictions (well the way Thames Water is being run maybe not🤦‍♂️).

     

    Happy Easter everybody and let’s hope we get a nice bit of 🌞soon!🤞

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This February really has been a bust in terms of what the models predicted and I really thought in terms of the winter months it held the best chance of a wintry spell for the U.K. as a whole.It was only mid late January that all models including the GLOSEA model that showed a real blocked picture and for them all to be wrong has totally bemused me tbh.I know we are only 14 days into Feb but now the models are pretty much all in agreement for next 10 days that there will be no blocking so that pretty much covers all of February.I had always held GLOSEA in high regards but just goes to show you that all the best models can and do get it wrong(this also happened last summer as well).Something is causing this but what?Is it simply the warm SSTs?I don’t have the answers as I am not qualified enough but something is going on which worries me for the future as the World continues to warm at an alarming rate.

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

     Neilsouth Yep last night at 10pm met office app said rain started at between 2-3 pm.Started in Orpington at 9.05 and hammering down now and radar has filled so quickly and looks like rain all day now!!😡Thought I had a good 4/5 hours of work and reality probably just be the 1 hour!Not great when you are a self employed gardener!!That is such a poor forecast from only 12 hours out👎🏻Oh well better get on with some accounts as bit behind on them😂!!Have a good day everyone rant over.

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Absolutely stunning day today and lovely to work in👍Felt like spring arrived and tbh looking at next 14 days unless the models flip it looks like it will stay mild pretty much for all of February  which was very different to what a lot of experts thought even as late as mid January 🤷🏼‍♂️.Been an awful winter for us snow starved South Easterners but now I look forward to spring and more of days like today will bring on all the colour that comes with Spring👍🌞

    • Like 1

    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This Winter has really been a major disappointment really with seemingly so many things in our favour leading into Winter yet things seem to have gone the way of the pear.Although we still have over 3 weeks of Feb left and models still showing northern blocking from say 15th onwards i am not convinced this will happen tbh.Its been Model chaos this last 5 days and we seem to yet again gone from a cold outlook to a just average outlook for the next 7 days,espicially down here in the SE.Once we get past say 7th or 8th march down here you can forget chances of lying snow here down here although inappreciate  those up north winter can continue for a good 2-3 weeks more so good luck to those areas getting a few more bites of the cherry.If indeed come early March we are still snowless it will be a real kick in the you know whats from a snow pov and makes me question what has caused us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory😢

    • Like 1

    Spain Weather

    in Weather Around The World

    Posted

      @Metwatch

    Thanks for sending those clips above.I thought it might be more newsworthy but I found nothing on mainstream news about it🤷🏼‍♂️.What was strange was the British civil aviation authorities felt it was unsafe to take off from Sal on Thursday which is fair enough yet flights from Sal still continued that afternoon to Helsinki,Milan and Prague as our European friends felt it was ok to fly.Although it was pretty chaotic and frustrating I would much prefer to be safe than sorry in these instances.

    Spain Weather

    in Weather Around The World

    Posted

      @Metwatch

     

    All that dust was over Cape Verde due to a sandstorm.Boa was hit worse but we had our flight cancelled from Sal on Thursday and got out yesterday luckily and got home early hours this morning.Those hoping to go to Boa not so lucky as no flights in or out yesterday and some poor souls from Birmingham who were diverted to Sal on Thursday had their whole holiday cancelled yesterday and were flying home yesterday.Sal airport was chaos on Thursday and we were stuck there 9 hours before we got shipped back to a hotel.And we were lucky as some people ended up sleeping in hotel reception as all hotels were full!!😢

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MJB said:

    GFS smashes up the PV, this is a good trend we are seeing.

    image.thumb.png.371b42f2c457b3b5a0a1d79f3f12fc7a.png

    Feb 4th, so much potential from here going forward. Yes yes yes yes it's deepest FI but worth keeping an eye on 

    Scandinavia and Eastern Europe well and truly in the freezer again.Apart from a few days this week where milder temperatures occur this has been a winter to remember for them .The trough seems to have been stuck over them since late October it seems.A winter of the 80s for them with record cold temperatures.

    • Like 5

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Trom said:

    Out of interest, does anyone else seem to find that the Met constantly underpredicts the min low temp overnight?  Last night -3 was predicted for my area (South Croydon) whilst the weather station in the garden said -5.4.  Tonight it has +1 all evening but the weather station is reading -2.7.  I don't notice this with daytime temps.  Noticed it over the last couple of years too.

    Yes exactly the same for me as well.Forecast -2 last night yet was -4.8 in the end.The forecast high was 3 yet we only hit 2.Has been a trend this winter I have found.

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Hotspur62

    40 minutes ago, Don said:

    Oh dear, sounds like you are none too optimistic now Mike?  That said, I know where you're coming from and what you say all makes sense!  I wonder if we will have more luck in February?  The EC46 seems to have backed off colder potential in yesterday's and today's runs, albeit not gone.

    I have lost a lot of faith in the EC46 over the last 12-18 months in both winter and summer and really take it with a pinch of salt !The Latest GLOSEA for February which came out a couple days showed quite extensive Northern blocking which is what the teleconnections seem to indicate and must be built in for this model?Although being a coldie I am not using this because it is what I would like to see,but more because I have more faith in it over the last few years.Of course it could be wrong and it will be interesting to see come 1st March.

    In the meantime today has seen the models back off a bit from Atlantic piling in and more resistance that this weeks cold will hold till maybe 21st January.After that yes milder weather looks favourite but more cold zonal so not excessively mild(just going on latest 18z gfs)Indeed I think Scottish ski resorts will be in for a good couple weeks starting tomorrow 👍❄️

    • Like 4

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Hotspur62
    Typo error

    If this time next week things are turning milder the question for me is if we don’t get a full on SSW will that be the reason why this upcoming cold spell ended sooner than many expected.Would that have overridden all the other teleconnections?I don’t have the knowledge to answer that but maybe others do?

    Of course things may have changed during the week but as things stand would be curious to know the reasoning.Still got February to go which historically is UKS best chance of snow over last 10 years.Would love to have a good old fashioned scandi High😃❄️

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well as others have said this morning a rather disappointing trend has been set by the models.Yes down here very likely to see no snow here but week just gone has had temps is 2,3,3,3 and 5 for last 5 days and from today till next Friday a continuation of these temps looks well odds on.We also had a flurry of snow here but not settling yet 8 miles down the road Sevenoaks got 5cms!I am obviously disappointed by no snow but I think a large portion on northern uk will see snow/snow showers this week👍I will just enjoy frosty sunny days which is the next best thing for me after snow and boy do we need a dry spell after 10 weeks of heavy rain !!

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just a quick one while we await the gfs 18 z but if over last 12-18 hours where we have seen a pretty sharp drop in heights over Greenland (during middle part of next week)is it not possible for that not to bounce back again as even t+72 is not set in stone.I genuinely am fascinated by what the models are showing but the contrasts over the last few days one way and then the other makes me think there could be another twist?Probably wishful thinking from me but stranger things have happened.

    Whatever happens snow or no snow Monday-Friday looks cold to very cold with the lucky few seeing snow ,more especially in Scotland and Northern England I would guess.

    image.png

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