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Hotspur62

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    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Another raw day here with light rain/sleet this morning into the afternoon and the skies started to clear about 4ish.Temperature peaked here at 4.6 but has dropped to 2.6 now.

     

    Dropped into Mod Thread and what a state of confusion 🤪!!Even the models can’t agree on the overnight precipitation starting from 1-2 am let alone Thursday and Friday.If I had to take a guess for overnight I would say those west or north west of London will see snow(Oxfordshire/bucks and higher parts of Surrey & Hampshire),those to south and east (Kent ,Essex,both Sussex’s and Suffolk) elevation will be key to any settling snow(over 400ft asl) and those North of London again will hopefully see snow(again the caveat being elevation) and also we need to take into account how far north this system goes(the models differ on this as well!).It’s a right old Fred Karno.Hopefully I am wrong and temperatures fall quick this evening so that if and when the precipitation arrives we all in the SE thread get a good covering👍There is still interest Wednesday evening into Thursday morning,especially for those north and west of the region but that is for another day.

    Good luck to everyone with regards to getting some “white gold” and don’t forget to send in the pictures if we strike lucky ❄️❄️

    • Like 4

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Been a grey old day here in Locksbottom with drizzle on and off most of the day and only 7 degrees.Dry theme continues into the weekend and early next week and even the chance of the odd snowflake for the lucky few Sunday evening onwards but nothing to get too excited about.After that is anyones guess and SSW causing havoc with the models with no continuity being shown for either cold or mild weather tbh.The “day 10 for cold weather “ is being banded about in the MOD Thread but as the days tick by the chances of us in the SE seeing anymore snow this winter also decreases😢That said it was march 2013 that was flipping cold down here most of the month so let’s see👍
     

    On a side note has anyone else noticed the number of plants that have perished this winter?In 20 years of gardening never known a 12 months like it and wonder if the extreme heat of the summer and the two spells in December and mid to late January when we had -6s and -7s here(not seen those type of temps for 5 plus years) has been the cause?The number of dead hebes ,rhododendrons, camilias has been much higher than normal.If these extremes continue which sadly seems likely we are going to need to maybe change our way of thinking about what type of plants we plant going forward.Certainly food for thought there I feel.

    Should also add it’s been an incredibly dry February here with only about 1mm of rain!

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Seems to be a growing trend that a SSS will happen but it will probably be later than 2018 so rather late feb/early march it is more likely to be early mid March before the effects(if they do even happen) could occur.From a cold perspective it will certainly favour midlands northwards and elevation will obviously play a factor.For the south I think it would most likely be a wintry mess and most likely cold rain away from areas of 150m asl.In the meantime the models are pretty set in stone for dry weather for next 7 days for most of the U.K. and temperatures above average so everyone get outside and enjoy this beautiful country of ours👍

    • Like 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

    How it's been quite a cold year down here. Today is a nice shock to the system though.

    This winter has been a funny old winter with 2 cold spells interspersed with mild weather.The cold spell in December was most notable here and lasted 10 days but from 18th December till about 15th January it was pretty mild and wet until the second chilly spell we just had that had quite a few severe frosts here.Since Tuesday though it has been 10degrees plus and today was 12.4 here so very pleasant.

    • Like 1

    Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, carinthian said:

    White out today. 25 cm of new snow . Another 50cm plus expected over the coming days.

    C

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Blizzard, Winter, Snow, Storm, Person

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Blizzard, Winter, Storm, Snow, Truck, Vehicle, Car, Person

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Winter, Blizzard, Snow, Storm, Car, Vehicle, Lawn Mower, Tool

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Winter, Glove, Clothing, Blizzard, Snow, Storm, Person, Shoe

    Love the pictures you send and Austria looks to be hit pretty hard over the next 5 days which should set the ski resorts for a good last 6 weeks of the season(obviously longer in the higher resorts).

    we can only look with envy here in Blighty but there is still hope for us for last third of this month and early march for us to see some of the white stuff but maybe not to the extent you are experiencing atm🤣❄️!!

    • Like 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Quite a pleasant day today hitting 10.7 here and some early sunshine was most welcome this morning.A bit grey this arvo with quite a breeze making it feel a little cooler than this morning.Even had a bit of light drizzle about 2pm.

    sadly the long shot of a cold spell that the GFS was showing now dead in the water but next week looks another dry week and cooler than this week but in the sunshine should feel ok and decent outdoor weather👍
     

    Longer term I have a bad feeling we are going to get a final taste of winter in late feb early march and I say that as for us Southerners it is frustrating as if we do get snow it tends to not hang around for too long with the sun being higher in the sky and stronger.That spell in December just gone was quite remarkable here as we stayed sub zero for 192 consecutive hours.Even BFTE 2018 we only managed 158 hours so for me December and January are best times to get snow in this part of the world.That said it would be nice to see a little more snow fall this winter and then I will be ready for Spring.

    • Like 3

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Miserable dank and cold late January day that really got into your bones!!Drizzle started about 1.30ish and got heavier as afternoon progressed.Was only about 3/4 degrees today and this cold spell gone on for about 10 days now.Although no snow(sadly) in this period there have been some really harsh frosts on the weekend just gone with lows of -7/-8 which is impressive for this part of the world.Next 7 days looks like a gradual warm up with temps upto 7-8 degrees by early next week.After that it appears a return to zonal weather with wet and windy spells more likely although with the caveat that this is a long way ahead in weather terms.I have a funny feeling that the snow I saw on 11th December last year will be the only snow I shall see this winter which is fine as it stayed on the ground for 6 days without melt as we stayed sub zero 24/7 for 7 straight days here👍

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    EC det maintains Euro low.

    Euro High cannot reestablish..

    That is one consistent theme that most models show for at least next 7-10 days👍the French Swiss Austrian and Italian ski resorts will be most happy with this and the depth of snow come the end of the month will be impressive.

    The problem for us is northern arm of jet too strong to allow High to ridge up to Scandi or Greenland and most likely stay close to U.K.Likely to be an East West split with highest temps possibly in NW SCOTLAND by Sunday and coldest temps in SE England under a slight continental drift.After that a number of possibilities including cold so enough interest for coldies👍

    • Like 7

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Got to -3.9 about 10.30pm last night but temperatures rose and at 7am this morning was only -2.7.No ice day here today like yesterday as @11.15 was 0.1.Reckon we will be between 2-3 degrees here before temperatures start dropping from about 2.45pm.

    Agree with Toms post last night in that the HP will just stick around U.K. AS not enough momentum to push north either into scandi or NW towards Greenland.At least we can dry out a bit for next 7 days and the SE will probably be coldest part of U.K. by Sunday !What happens after then is very much up in the air but we are still in with a shout of another cold shot during February as a displacement or split is looking more likely which in turn increases our chances of another cold spell(although by no means guaranteed).If I had to take a punt I would be looking at Valentines week for the SE Next cold spell!

    • Like 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Happy Birthday Ed Stone! let’s hope come 6.30 Sunday Spurs give you a belated Birthday present👍
     

    Been a nice day today and was lovely to see the sun for a bit.Was breezy but got a full days work in and even cut a couple of clients lawns today which shows how mild it has been these last 3 weeks.Back to usual c*’p tomorrow of rain and wind but then it looks like colder weather from Sunday and this looks like lasting to Wednesday/Thursday next week.Whether some see snow Monday/Tuesday in the region is anyones guess.My heart says yes but head telling me not this time for this part of NW Kent but think others in this thread will hopefully see some nice winter landscapes👍❄️
     

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Some potential past day 10 ecm as we loose the deep low heights from the north west, apart from that its more of the same, colder up north, enough for wintry showers on hills past day 6.

    Bar has been set very low if your excited by this output.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Map

    Whilst I appreciate it is a day 10 chart to me it just shows the strength and persistence of the high to the south and until that goes very little chance of cold weather in the U.K. maybe with the exception of Scotland.Saw Joe Bs Saturday summary and he seems keen that MJO forcing may well change weather patterns for US and Europe so let’s see what the charts show us at the end of the week as some charts are toying with the idea of changes in FI atm.This week at least in the south looks a pretty mixed bag with a fair bit of rain and temps still above average although not as mild as last week.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All I see is pretty much a continuation of what we have now,although in time the mild conditions we have in the south and midlands will go back to maybe average.(over next 10 days).Scotland,espicially central belt northwards has remained average to slightly below since the end of the last cold nationwide spell and will continue to do so in next 7-10 days with prospects of snow for them ,especially 200m asl but not exclusively so.

    As January progresses a few things strike me that the models show

    1.The transfer of PV Over from Greenland back to Asia and impressive build up of cold air to north and east.

    2.The emergence of the Arctic High

    3.The stubborn heights to the South still remain pretty much in tact

    It is certainly a different picture to what we normally see in this stage of winter hemispherically wise and it’s just whether we see the pieces fall into place to get cold to the U.K.On top of that the beginnings of a warming maybe brewing and there is interest if you are of  a cold persuasion going forward.

    • Like 2
    • Insightful 1
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