Hotspur62

Things are starting to get interesting for this winter.Have watched MOD threads for last week with interest and things i think are slightly tilted for cold spell to develop after this weekend coming.If it comes off,we may have a 10-14 day cold period with snow quite probable at one stage or another across the UK.So far from Yorkshire Northwards there has already been snow in last 5 days and this may extend a little further South to the dreaded" M4 corridor".Living in Kent,i think i will have to wait till next week before i get to see any snow,but we shall see.One thing that has struck me is the lack of any mild days since Mid November which were the norm this time last year.Reading the LRFs across the board most are going for a more blocked and cold Dec and Jan with Feb becoming Milder.The one exception is BG on Weather Outlook who seems to think worst of winter will be in Feb.Time will tell but for cold lovers this winter i am quietly confident will be much colder than last winter.

Currently 0.4 here with a maximum of 6.8 degrees.Think i will scrapping the ice off tomorrow morning as it will get down to minus 2 by dawn.!!

Looks like the coldness that started today will hang around till Sunday and then milder,wet and windy weather comes back for Monday.I thought a couple of days ago that there might be a "battleground" with Atlantic and cold air we had in place but looks like that apart from Higher elevations from Northern England northwards, we are just going to get more rain which is not what SW England and Wales need.Still, remain positive that we will have colder than normal winter which seems to be general concensus but will need to wait maybe another 10-14 days before things get interesting for snow lovers. IN the meantime,think we will have 3 pleasent days with frost and cold winter sun which suits me just fine.

Well,winter starts on Saturday and looks like it will start on the cold side for many in the UK.Saw SR winter forecast and thought it was well explained and simple for someone like me who knows the basics but is not an expert like many on the MOD Thread, which i find interesting and very entertaining.Looks like December and January will bring snowfall to UK,how much and where is the 64K question but feel we may be on for a good one for snow lovers.Thanks SR and keep up the good work!! Off to buy my ticket now for MOD thread as 9.30pm GFS is fast approaching and with the trend reverting today more to the cold side(compared to 24hrs ago) i think a few over there will be getting very excited with potential cold or down in the dumps again!!If nothing else,you have to say the UK weather is the most interesting and being surrounded by water just seems to add to the fun with its unpredictabilty

Bang on Chris K.I have followed with interest the MOD thread recently and have learnt a great deal.As it did this morning,it is again in meltdown with new GFS coming out from 9.30pm.Looks like that cold snap may be shortlived bit if LP coming from Atlantic runs out of steam Sat/Sun the "old battleground scenario" may develop and if pressure from East stayed stable all sorts of fun and games may happen across UK.Probably wishful thinking on my part, having a slight cold and snow bias but not totally out of the question.From next weekend onwards is open to debate but as you say things are so much more positive compared to last year if Cold and snow is your thing.I tend to think that DEC will be a little below average in terms of Temp but January next year may give us our first true cold spell(maybe a 10-14 cold spell).Just my gut feeling,but hopefully one that turns out to be right!!

Whilst it looks like chance of cold spell is diminishing maybe to a "cold snap",we are in a lot stringer position than last year.I am only a novice when reading charts etc and have learnt a great deal from the experts on the "Model Thread" but i think it is fair to say that even if/when the projected cold spell ends temps will not go very mild like we had down here in Kent for December 2011 where we had 11-13 degrees on a regular basis.Temps will probably go to 8-9(in Kent,cooler furher North) but the chance of cold coming back relatively quickly and then we will be in a better position to see the whitestuff coming!! Model Thread is in meltdown at moment as there is so much to digest and that is what makes UK weather so fascinating.Like others have said,i think we will have a much better chance of a cold winter compared to previous years but we have to be patient.At the end of the day Winter doesn't start till 1st December and it is still only 26th November!!

Agree with Aaron,this time last year there was hope things would get better for cold lovers rather than expectation and those hopes just evaporated as time went by.The only significant cold spell was late Jan and first 10 days of Feb and only then that only gave Eastern half of England some snow and cold weather.This year,most models seem in agreement of a colder spell of weather coming,how cold is open to interpretation and this spell may last a while if blocking becomes stronger.Interesting times and will this winter be one to remember?Time will tell,but the odds on it being so are certainly shorter than this time last year!!

Thanks for everyones support re JB incident this morning.I was being a "little ironic".The thing that really did ruin my day yesterday was watching Spurs perform dreadfully at the Lane, but that is another story!!The weather is just a hobby that i have been fascinated for years and i,like everyone else, was just trying to give an opinion that Winter might not start off as a "Coldies paradise".Then again,it might.There is everything to play for and models and other factors may swing back in favour of cold weather coming back for early December.It is not "Negative" one way or the other as some people might not want 3 months of cold and snow.If we got that,i think the country could end up in a right old mess!!

In response to John Badrick,you are right i am not an expert and nor do i pretend to be.I only said it was my "Gut feeling" that is all thanks very much.Thanks for ruining my day with your comments.

There seems to have been a real shift in recent days to the erosion of Blocking taking place and latest runs for next 16 days seem to be firming up on a more Westerly flow with pressure seeming to fall up in Greenland so i think chances of Blocking are dropping daily.With the Azores High never being too far away either it isn't looking that great for cold and snow lovers.Hopefully,things will change but the odds i feel of a cold start to December are reducing imo.Just hope we don't have repeat of last winter when only cold we had was last few days of Jan and first 10 days of Feb(And we were luckier than most here in Kent in the UK!)Still time for things to change but "my gut" feeling is that if there is to be a sustained period of cold in the UK,then it will be from Jan onwards.

This year everyone seems to be focussing on the Strat.Whilst this is important,it is only one factor and cannot be taken in isolation.Last year alot of people on another forum were hellbent on the NAO.What will it be next year for Winter 2013/14??Everyone has got to calm down.Let's wait to middle of November(difficult i know!!) and then we will get a clearer picture for the first half of winter and what it might hold for the UK.I appreciate that some future charts look impressive if you like cold,but lets be honest,they are very very unlikely to come off.Not putting a dampner on things,just trying to put a bit of perspective on here. Looks like future cold blast this weekend is being modified a bit now with core of the cold being to our East but things could still change.Really enjoying posts from the likes of BFTP and others who really have great knowledge and have helped my understanding of lots of different factors that will make up our Winter.Thanks and keep them coming!!

Joined this forum a month ago after browsing various forms on Netweather and would like to thank those who have increased my knowledge on all sorts of things that may cause cold/mild winters here in the UK.Although i enjoy cold snowy weather i still think some people may be getting a bit ahead of themselves with the potential of cold being fulfilled.I think we will have to wait another month before we have a better idea of what winter has in store for our shores.That said,it would be nice to have a cold winter but we have to be patient and hope that "the signs of cold" currently in place don't disappear which would result in alot of disppointed people on this forum. Patience is the Key!!

whilst everyone is reminising on recent snow events in Uk the snow we had here in Kent at the beginning of December 2010 was awsome.Is snowed on and off for about 2 and half days with max temps always about or just below freezing.By the time the snow stopped it was about 15 inchs deep.The amazing thing was that just 10 miles away from us in Beckenham(moving towards central London),there was only a light covering!!.We are on edge of North Downs at about 380ft ASL and were just in the band of heavy snow that continued to fall.Wouldn't mind a repeat of that this winter!!

I wasn't a member of this forum last year(winter 2011-12) but was a member of another one i have subsequently given up on but there wasn't the hype that there seems to be this year on the possibilty of a cold winter.I admit i like the cold and snow but there seems to be more argued signals for colder weather this winter from a number of different sources compared to last year when i felt it was more hope and desperation from some people at this time of year.My "gut feeling" is we have a colder winter than last year but not as harsh as 2009-10.That would still give us a few good snowfalls and probably bring the country to a halt for a few days here and there!!

Have read about epic winter of 63 although wasn't born then so can't talk first hand.I was born in 1971 and remember well that through 70s and 80s we had regular snowfalls but snow became a rareity down here in Kent from early 90s until about 2004.Then we seem to have got more regular snowfalls again and 3 out of last 4 have been colder than average.I think things are cyclical and just what i have read over last couple of years i think we are probably(although not definetly) heading towards winters not disimilar to those we had in 60s and 70s in the UK.I just wish are summers would improve a bit as well as last good one was 2006!!.

Anyone heard anything more from Big Joe laminate floori from Weatherbell??I used to enjoy his enthusiasm when he was with Accuweather but now he has moved to a fee paying company you don't get to see much of his views on UK and Europe.I know 2 years ago he was indicating winters from 2012-2014 could be harsh for UK but haven't heard anything from him. Look forward to hearing from those who may have info.In the meantime and in Big Joe's words,"Enjoy the weather as it's the only weather you have got".For enjoyers of wild weather here in UK it will be an interesting 24hours.

Have followed this forum and others for last few months and signed up today.Very Interesting comments from members on what is in store for UK this winter and early indications point to a below average winter in terms of temp.Howver,we are not even out of September yet and i really don't feel that we can tell what the winter holds until end of October. Looked at Gavin's first pointers towards Winter 2012/13 and found it very interesting yet models seem to conflict each other. My guess is i think there is a higher chance of blocking this winter than last which would result in some cold spells of weather.Last winter was very disappointing in terms of cold and snow with exception of 2 weeks of cold here in Kent from end of Jan-mid feb.I do like cold weather and hope for more of 09-10 type of winter but time will tell.Will view this forum with interest over next few months!!