AmatuerMet1963

That's about right for us poor souls in the North West lol

Correct. I lived 45 years in Eastbourne, Brighton was my favourite ride on my Vespa SS180 to go to a scooter club meeting. But being near the coast in the South east in winter Is nothing like being near The irish sea, which brings in almost 100% warmer air along with rain. Eastbourne along with Brighton and kent had 12 feet of drifts in the sixties. You wont see the sea freeze around Blackpool piers, but on a wicked South Easterly 30 mph Siberian wind in 1963, that froze a lot of sea near Eastbourne pier. I find the main forcasters really havent a clue and just making it up as they go along, each hour they change the forecasts, unlike in our old BBC forecasters, what they said you usually got, and only two bulletins a day, A very rare news flash, would Hold our attention. "here is a flash warning of severe snow and ice for Sussex". You dont get flash warnings in TV now, they too busy making money from adverts now, and sky news, I dont know why weather presenters bother to come in, they get 45 seconds to give a forecast which should be at least 5 - 10 minutes, which I why I like to tune in to CNN weather, you get a huge update great maps and sometimes over 10 minutes of discussion, if only that happened here??

Im a big Holland fan, as been across to Breda Ostende Breskens, Rotterdam and Amsterdam on the ferries from Dover. I remember in 1972-3 We had heavy snow on the Sussex coast, I saw a young lady I knew, that I saw onto her London train to start her first job, being an au pare? It was well documented at the time that Holland was a very snowy country in those times, and saw there was 10 inches of snow On Sciphol airport runways, meaning no flights for a few days. and Amsterdam was in a white out... seventies great for snow!!

Porbably quite right, But after living in Kent and Sussex for 45 years since 1959 , I am still used to getting blizzards and heaps of drifts, we had to dig our way out of our houses. To be honest I do miss the fresher and drier climate there than N West, I never had arthritis until I moved to Blackpool. Its not known that much in Sussex, I am only one out of my family of 27 that got arthritis bad in most of my joints and still waiting for my hip Op to replace the one that's in very bad shape, on the other hand The South East resorts have become Mediterranean in summers the last 8 years. I hate heat, and thunderstorms that cross the channel on Coastal areas. used to fish on the beach at night, and used to count the flashes of lightning over in France, 100 flashes for most of the evening was normal., then they decided to cross , "Time to go"! One vicious one was in the eighties, it was end of the world stuff, a stunning Water spout just off hasting's that went to heaven or hell, it was huge, with lightning all round it, monsoon rain and then a thunder bolt. that took out chimney stack 900 yards away, fried our sockets fried the TV and our poor dogs were never the same again!!

Yes that seems to be a possible day so far looking at several forecasts and models For N West- Thursday then, lets hope that turns out and turn miserable dark North west towns into a winter wonderland if even only for a few days. But Im always reminded of an old scientific fact. The more lying snow there is on the ground, the more likely it may get even colder. Subtle changes like that can make a big difference to outcomes only a few days ahead that was already forecast. To be honest its Nature , it dosnt know computers or models, it will do its own thing despite morally challenging ladies smiling on BBC hedging heavily, as "Not Sure Yet" , could be, Maybe, To far away to call yet, not sure, firm up details later. I dont remember Bill Giles. Michael Fish, Rob McElwee, Ian McCaskill using those get out phrases. I think Michael Fish was unfairly targeted, given the technology at the time. In fact he was right in a way. You dont get hurricanes in Northern Europe. He was unfortunate that the storm that did hit Sussex wound up even more in a very short time.

I understand, but me a Sussex born and bred, and was out in my car in the last Blizzard I was ever in in 1978ish. But since moving to Pembrokeshire in 1987 than Blackpool for 23 years up to late 2000s I have seen anything more than an inch, not the 10feet I walked to school in in my era. Manchester has a strange climate, I can vouch for that as a civilian Airliner hobby. And a A320 mocked up cockpit on Flight Sim x. I see at the Manchester runway viewing park where Concorde is, many times on video and in real life, how turbulent the cross winds are at Manchester Airport. I only live as the crow flies around 20 miles from Salford In Newtown Wigan, just a few minutes drive from the Bolton Stadium. But for some reason none if ever precipitation arrives from the east here. Only rain bearing Atlantic lows. I have studied many charts this morning, windy , main weather channels, and all give clear sunny but frosty forecasts for Wigan area, although we are supposed to be part of Greater Manchester, but within this new Greater Manchester area, the weather you get on the East side is very different from what you get in West Manchester or West Lancashire and for many people Wigan will always be in Lancashire and reject being in Greater Manchester...With 60%F being forecast soon as 14 days, I can't see any Beast getting to us. If you get some in parts of Manchester enjoy it, as scientists point out that by 2030 snow in Britain will be very rare due to climate changes and co2 plus the ever increasing levels of Methane. See, you live in East Manchester thats a long way from Wigan and Ince on Makesfield where I live. The weather divides us lol

Absolutely nothing for us In Merseyside or North West Areas, again we have been left out in the warm. Only thing is a cold weather alert, but by itself means zero to snow lovers!!

Very disappointing change in snow forecasts. All changed from last week. For us in Starved North West, almost all the main weather media BBC / Netweather / and MET office show us in Lancashire devoid of any snow, as it all stops at the Pennines & and for some reason It just wont continue to Lancashire, but this is what happened in 2018. Its not noted on my calendar, because we had sunny weather and frosts only in Blackpool. Residents on the coasts and where I live in Wigan, experienced hardly one flake. This looks like the same. Its never going to BE a 1963, wind direction changes in 9 days back to Southerly. In 1963 Atlantic low pressure systems came straight into the Easterly in place and pummelled not only The South East with 12 feet drifts WHERE i LIVED, but also gave Manchester a huge amount of snow to. This easterly will be quite different, and West parts of the UK are unlikely to be affected by this present setup. in fact the GFS for next week, shows NO snow over most of the UK apart from a spot in Scotland. I have already written of any snowy long term weather for N West and Lancashire

Hi in my younger days, I used to go with the wife to Richmond for Christmas every other year. We always seemed to be there, when on the boxing day or just after we wake up to white outs. and with glee, after consulting the AA I asked about going home via Scotch corner, and they simply said don't think about it for next 24 hours. so we had an extra day there, and took photos down one hill to a managed forest area with snow capped gate, it looked gorgeous, so When I went home, I painted the scene, and sold it to a workmate. However Richmond plus Barnard castle is very hilly, with almost vertical roads from houses. Quite an art using a car top of these areas. Love Swaledale and hope to visit Ravenseat in summer hopefully when covid relaxes?? Keep safe up there, couple of snow chains may be useful. WE all had them in our boots during the sixties and seventies, plus blankets for tyre grip!!

Finally both ECM and GFS seem to be on same page as todays longer range forecast from Susan Powell from the BBC earlier today. Both models have been very far apart recently but todays Windys shows not a lot of difference for Saturday this week. I recently noticed a good comment from an animal lover and bird enthusiast about noting nature pointers, which mainly are actually more certain than computers. This morning at 8am, I saw what looked like a scene out of "The Day After Tomorrow" , many flocks or skeins of birds were filling the sky at around 1000 feet. That's unusual for this time of year. I dont have to tell you what heading they were on do I.???...yep WEST out to the coasts of Blackpool or Liverpool or even Ireland. Where the freeze will be tempered some what by the mini climate that surrounds North West Britain. The small birds remain to be feeding heavily in our gardens, and will totally rely on us to keep them alive through this 10 day freeze. see more about saving your garden birds at the RSPB site!!! So here are the two maps from ECM and GFS for one day this weekend. Theres also a huge low pressure system 952mb with very tight icobars off the Atlantic. GFS has it sinking south, while ECM has it steady increasing the chance of blizzards almost anywhere as mean winds are associated with is up to 27mph.... I will still need to see it in Lancashire to believe snow will fall, But Im more hopeful than a few days ago, But honestly this will possible cripple the covid vaccine turnout, if towns and citys get heavy snow, along with stranded vehicles and other problems. Spare a thought for Amanda Owen and Clive at the Yorkshire farm afar at Ravenseat, where most of my relations live not far on the high town called "Richmond", off scotch corner,M1 A1. they have already sent snaps to us off vast mounts of snow over 7-8 days already. Below, both models are agreeing to wintry weather by Saturday the 6th February. BBC weather seems to be following more or less the ECMS tracking. To my mind the GFS seems to make a poor job of creating a coherent forecast.. that flies in opposition of other mainstream sources. stay safe and get your sledge bought before they all sell out!!!

Well, we have seen this all before and little has actually been right. It should be noted that only Eastern areas are going to see Sea effect snow. South East could get blizzards like I myself saw in 1963. But us in Lancashire like Manchester and Liverpool are unlickly to see anything but freezing cold and dry weather. Only a Atlantic low pressure entering N West areas may have a chance of falling snow. But it will have a job getting past the easterly in place. But may be possible by under cutting the prevailing new East flow. However its doubtful Lancashire will get heavy snow, but sudden low or trough from the North West would be the best route for snow 8n Blackpool and most of Lancashire. But I'm not holding my breath. The 2018 last beast we didn't see anything from that at all, ans a normal weather in Blackpool and Liverpool with not a flake to be seen as we face west, gulf stream effect of Pembrokeshire sends ocean warmer water up the West Coast, and greatly effects any chances of N west areas seeing snow from a prevailing Easterly. Of course not in concrete, many variables abound. However the longer the deep cold persists, the higher chance of country wide wintry pretipation. On my Windy. Com site GFS & ECM do not agree even up to the 6th - 8th Feb. However the BBC this morning kirkwood did mention odds on for the East cold to win as M ichael fish indicated last weekend. Saturdays forecasts will be vital in grinding down the details. Keep safe and don't go on long journeys without the vitals we had in the sixties snow chains, a shovel, blankets for putting under tyres, lower tyre pressures to increase grip, a charged mobile phone. Packs of snacks and waters, make sure antifreeze is topped up wipers warning lights on top of car, but mainly take foot off accelorater, it can take 800 yards to stop on slippery roads. I am also a garage technician for many years, so many have not driven in wintry conditions or had skid pan lessons which I had as a trainee driving instructor in 1993.

I seriously think the possibility of any Beast reaching as far my area in West Lancashire. The Atlantic is too strong due probably to La nina? My relations just 75 miles near Catterick sent snaps of many days of deep snow in N Yorkshire. Why 75 miles makes a difference escapes me. I. Have really never understood greater Manchester weather. On Sussex coast. I lived for 45 years. Was dry and cold especially in winter. With many snowy outbreaks in my school days. Also serious very heavy thunder storms in summer, which caused huge disruption and power cuts. Lancashire don't get thunder storms thank goodness because they scare me, and caused my dogs were traumatised one day after bolt took off a chimney stack 1000yards away. Blowing our power, burnt plugs and smoking hired colour TV. My old man a seaman told me it's always colder the North than the South. But in my many years since going through the 63 winter. It appears to me, that might have not been true. But it certainly was in the sixties with bonfire night very frosty and needing gloves and scarf. My windy charts up to 25th January show nothing in the way of anything but mild westerly at 9%c. Ssw seems to be more hype than actual weather actually in line with a SSW which should by now be starting to turn to easterly direction. Which has still not been seen even in summer.

Been raining most of early morning and on and off. So my planned mobility scooter run to M&S was rained off. It already dark here in Lancashire with black overcast depressing cloud cover. By 7.30pm Were told it will start the storm off, with rain overnight into Tuesday all day. Sadly the winter seasonal weather is now a thing now forgotten already. With only 2 inches here anyway. Strange weather as only 75 miles away my relations in North Yorkshire had quite a few days of heavy snow, but N West never seems to in right position for heavy and continues snow. I have really written off any Beast, getting as far as Lancashire. The Atlantic has won the battle thanks to the la nina. Rather have crisp healthy dry air than so much humidity and moisture at 7-10%c.

Seems my area of NorthWest is completely out of it in the next days. There is no sign of any wintry weather West of Manchester which is annoying. Severe Weather Europe has posted an outbreak of very cold and snowy conditions for "Europe" but in fact the UK is not included in what they call Europe, we tend to be in this atlantic milder air, that will need a lot of pushing by a beast from the east to push it so far West. I think we in the West of the UK will get a continuation of Autumn. My windy chart for 21st january, shows Nothing like what SWE is showing for The UK come that day, in fact quite the opposite!!

Well, as you know I'm not very knowledgeable maths wise and the advanced nature of some of the data, which is out of my understanding, But I do watch Windy com every day, and look at various models and projected forecast for about 12 days . According the ECM sunday 17th looks interesting, and a very long finger of purple has got as far as Moscow, showing -26C, about the lowest its been through December. But in only 4-5 days later, the ECM places the purple finger all but to back to Siberia. I believe we need a Scandinavia high to allow any beast to flow.??? Of course the Newspapers, media outlets are having a field day with dire warnings which cant at this stage be substantiated - just click bait! A lot of shifting going on, and even my windy charts are all over the place up to the 21st. If there's any smell of snow, it seems to be contained to Up North, and i mean NORTH. There is no projection for snow to reach North West England like Lancashire at this stage.

As some posters say here the BBC seems to have a problem concerning next 8 days or so. So many changes to forecasts must leave even the general public confused. Only a few days ago, We was told the high pressure North of us would decline a little, letting in two, not one - but two Arctic low pressures to sit right over the UK, leading to more volatile weather than as now. These never materialized, instead they changed their minds to Easterly Airflow, with no sign of their Low pressures sitting over The UK with northerly winds. Now we have a completely different scenario, of a cold front coming in from the North West, however its a weak affair. However looking at the GFS against the ECM models this coming week. They are not in any agreement this week, not until roughly the end of the week, when both go for a disappointing South Westerly and BBC talking of milder temperatures up to 8%C especially in Southern Areas. All the media is talking "Beast from the East", but on Windy site even by next Saturday there is a very slack situation in far East regions. But plenty of snow this week for Germany and Austria, central Europe around Wein. But Beast Of the East remains off the cards in my estimation for the foreseeable future, If South Westerlies are climbing back into the UK. Northerlies may return by the 12th January. But again GFS and ECM seem divided on tracks, weather and any confidence to give really any hard and fast facts. The BBC didn't even get the forecast right for Lancashire last week. No snow or anything was forecast In Lancashire or parts of Manchester and Bolton. What happens we get three days of overnight snow leading to 3 inches in Wigan and ice, which we shouldn't have even had, but was a great bonus. These heavy snow showers that went on for 5 days straight, came off the Irish Sea. Why the BBC didnt pick these up sooner is a joke.

Thanks for all those kind words. i really thought i was going to be sidelined because science and math's are my worst subject where as. Biology, Ecology, ornithology and Oceanography is my forte. I dont know where the BBC is going with this, but appears to be the wrong way to me!!! Northerly in January, especially with strong wind chill, cant be anything short of freezing can it? An earlier longer range possibility by Mr Stanous of the BBC remarked that high pressure moving north and low pressure to south suggest a change in wind direction and although he said some east coastal showers may be rain , he didn't commit himself. But noted that wind speed would be stronger. That suggests to me the wind chill effect would actually make it colder. In any case my trusty Windy map comes in useful. I checked on its TOS a long time ago on posting, and very nice windy.com assistant said i was fine under their present licensing. You can see my premier member icon on right the little picture of Greta Thumberg. By the 8th January Im pretty interested by the huge swathes of Eastern Europe all pointing their winds from the East. And notice how the , at Vilnius area of Russia pool of frigid air is joining up near Gadansk, pushing into Europe. chance of a Bear From East almost to 60% possibility. ECMWF used. That's about my limit lol... thanks again, for comments appreciate it

Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still. So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows. I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay. Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario? I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me. Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!. happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!

Afternoon guys. Well the weather is as bad as it gets here in N West. We haven't really had day break at all this week. Its been a little bit light by 10am. but already by 3.30pm its so dark you cant even read a newspaper. Add to that hours and hours of heavy rain that keeps us olduns inside, unless you have a car. Very depressing for December. And to add salt to our injurys, Japan has had a sudden mind blowing Snowstorm, and New York pictures of The winter wonderland in Central park, makes me even more annoyed I didn't emigrate to British Columbia Canada to join my sister back in 1977-78. Plenty of snow where she is On the North Alasakan Highway town of Fort St John. As Im from the sixties, I have to search my mind when I last saw in a blizzard, that was about 1974 -1979 in Sussex, in fact that was the last heavy snow I have seen. Now I live near Liverpool, my chances of ever seeing 4 foot drifts again seem really remote, and at my age , I might not have enough time left to actually experience one . 2010 for me in Blackpool was a damp squid, with just a few inches, and very cold, but just 8 hours of medium snow that didnt cover hardly any of the town, and packed up snowing next day only ice remained. That was the last time i got the Winter cold weather payment for those on certain benefits. I have not had another payment for cold weather conditions since 2010. Where are those Easterlies we used to have that bought heavy snow showers to East Sussex? The UK seems to be changing prevailing wind directions from South Westerlies to SSW or especially South in Summer, that brings the very hot anomaly's temperatures that turns us into Mediterranean climate every year now and with it comes high levels of pollution from France in the summer. All the action seem to be Canada and USA where Toronto isnt far from an area with -32C%..................Windy.com gives a damning 8 day trend of more south westerlies. with any blue contained East of Vienna or Scandinavia right up to the 28th. In 1963 we was already under 2 feet by the 28th December.

well I wouldnt say Im Blinkered.....i appreciate your words valleyboy, but to say the seventies didnt have much snow i must disagree. But then that depends on your location. i worked both in a factory and a railway station during the whole of the seventies. Each year Sussex coast got pummeled with very heavy snow showers blowing in off the Channel. Most of the newspaper london trains never got to the coast, as they were stuck by snow somewhere between Victoria Station and Lewes, which like now suffers flooding, but in my days that was banked up snow. and third rail trains stuck many times, as their contact shoe became separated from the live third rail. We had white Christmas in seventies, probably one only but other winters we battled blizzards, high winds and chills that made water freeze within 25 minutes. It snowed regular in Amsterdam, bringing the city to a stand still, Schiphol was more or less out of action during those times.. I never saw snow after about 1983. In Wales where i moved to Pembokeshire, i never saw a flake in the 6 years i lived there but not that unsual as we were on the edge of the Gulf Stream, which was why the area has such a marvelous wildlife gold coast. i seem some extraordinary sites from Skomer island seeing the masses of sand eels looking over the boat side, the seals, gannets, Puffins Shearwaters and much more. I became a pembokeshire Coast national Park warden, and a wildlife artist the best times of my life I also saw the first pointers of global warming, (that scientists warned about in 1989) This was my trip of a lifetime and dream to drive From Wales, fly by Hoverspeed from Dover to Calais and drive 2,500 miles and back through European countries (pre Euro) to stay in Vienna for three weeks to visit The Living daylights locations. I also hired expensive ski equipment, along with cold weather thermal gear, plus a £200 two week course on learning to ski in Pembokeshire on dry slopes. However on my late mothers birthday I arrived 3/4 way on my journey, and stopped at the snow capitol of Europe Salzburg. I know this to be true, because I inherited a few hundred postcards of sent to a doctor in Westminster, to a learned friend in Salzburg. These cards had hundreds of scenes showing Salzburg under feet of snow, with post marks from the 60's right up to 1984. However when I arrived I was very disappointed, that instead towering Alp mountains looking spectacular, I got out of my car into 60%F on December the 19th 1988, with just a T shirt on. All I saw was rock for miles around me. I couldn't believe there was bright sun, a spring like day near Christmas, which is wasnt What i had paid out so much money to see. But i was still another 250 miles roughly from Vienna, so I really thought i would definitely see snow in Vienna very near to Eastern Europe. I arrived at 10pm at night in thick fog you couldnt hardly drive in. I booked in placed car in underground hotel car park. and slept next morning until breakfast was served to my room at 8.15 am. I looked outside and saw nothing but dark roads and thick fog. through out the rest of my two weeks there, I saw not ONE flake of snow. Even out of Vienna at a resorts in the hills above, the one I was going to was in Semmering. but That was closed, all ski lifts closed, the engineering feats of snow barrier's around road tunnels was totally bare of any white stuff. I still cant believe all my snow chains, ski equipment, were never taken out of the boot and used. It was like a hammer blow, and I knew something was wrong with our world at that point, and when i actively started getting involved in Global warming, (early days of course that no one took any notice of)... The term beast from the east has been used by newspaper media since 2010. It is incorrect fake news. We had bitterly cold east winds every other year in Sussex during the seventies. We didn't call it a beast, it was just cold winds that clashed with the few low pressures from the atlantic that actually made it to Eastern Britain. The 63 winter was cause by a combination of Freezing easterlies with a blocking scandinavia High, the low pressure tried to cross southern England, but were stopped by the blocking high with nowhere to go, they sat stationary, and just snowed and snowed for days , it relented, but came back with a vengeance hardly 7 days later, and that was it. The stationary pattern held for weeks, the temperatures continued to decrease even lower, more South West fronts tried to break in, but all they did was add more feet of snow to already huge snowdrifts. No one knew what caused the lack of winter in 1989 In Austria and Switzerland, but many locals told me , they never seen anything like it, that the whole of the alps from France to Italy were completely devoid of snow. 2010 seems to be a talking point, but having moved to Blackpool then, i have to say, we just got a couple of inches only, and some ice, it had all gone in 7 days. 2011 saw a snowstorm off the irish sea Canadian air flow . that had laying snow of 3 inches in Blackpool gone the next day. So the only real snow I had ever seen, was in the seventies. by 93 when we moved to Blackpool, I found the climate very different from the normal drier South East.

Morning. I'm going to buck the trend here. I know I'm a newbie here, but really you all been bought up on computer modelling which I don't agree with. Your all trying to look for signs ,like trying to determine when a volcano is going to erupt. Weather is a natural part of our planet. It is to nature and local observations you should be acquired and is healthier than sitting stuck on screen in central heating. The weather climate I started getting to in 1963 was vastly different to what it has become since the early nineties. I was bought up bill Giles and Michael fish analogue times. I got my information from the fishing forecast and my home made instruments. I was lucky to live within miles of the royal Sovereign Lightship off Eastbourne coast. I always remember Emmerich's Day After Tomorrow film from 2004. That was surprisingly fairly spot on today's events, however even Jack Halls model was totally wrong. Instead of a new ice bound world, we have had the opposite. Scorched earth instead. Southern England where I come from in the South East once had the bitter winters around between 1950-1983. Blizzards were frequent , blowing in from the near continent on strong South Easterly winds, 1 in every 3 winters. Snow piled up regularly in he seventies, cutting off the Downs, this also included heavy snow across Holland and the low countries. The big picture for me is that prevailing wind flows are changing. Eastbourne was the sun trap of the South coast. However winters were brutal and no plants along our sea front ever survived our winters. Huge flocks of green finches, blackbirds robins the tit family, and wrens descended on our bird table's every morning. Many died from the extreme cold. And 1963 a staggering 94% of the Wren population perished. Two observations are pertinent. Hot summers like 1976 were still tempered by East winds lighty blowing across the country making the UK still a temperate climate. But we don't get those now for many years. In summer we turn Mediterranean because our predominant winds are now coming from North Africa, meaning the cooling East winds are blocked out. Conversely , Sussex has lost those bitter normal continental air for such a long time now. Palm trees are naturalising in South coast easier resorts, because of the lack of normal Russian bitter East airflows. Siberia is not what it was, thanks to many huge forest fires in many parts of the world, including the ones in northern Russia. Fast melting huge ice sheets melting perma frost in America and Siberia are allowing Methane in ever larger volumes to escape into the atmosphere, adding to the ongoing global warming In closing. Although I'm snow mad, to wish for a severe winter in the UK should not be encouraged. Many here fail to take on board, that for many years now house ownership has declined rapidly since the 1960 70 era. In the 1963 winter we survived pretty well including the elderly like I am now. The reason for that is we had many sources of energy to call upon especially in Sussex where power cuts were many in snowy winters. We had our coal fires that also have us hot baths washing up water and upstairs sinks while we got ready for school. Everybody had gas cookers then. Our upstairs landings had two paraffin heaters going at night. Now you look at today's heating methods. 70% of dwellings mostly flats have only ONE heating source and that's electricity. That extremely dangerous. With no other way to even make tea or use a microwave. Once power cuts start, not even your mobile phone can be charged, that's a worry for people who use one instead of a safer land line And no other heating source. The fatality rate of family's and elderly would be catastrophic. The national grid hardly copes as it is. I would add caution for bitter seventies winters returning, this country is now even more unequipped to keep residents safe and transport running in this age. As it is. I don't see any return to Beasts from the East's , until runaway emmisions are drastically reduced.. The pessimistic expert take recently. Points to snow of any kind in southern England will soon be a thing of the past. Immensely sad for kids of today who never made 5feet igloos and snowmen regularly that lasted at least 10 days. Younger posters on here, should remember that November the 5th guy Fawkes was often very cold and frosty. Scarves. Gloves, and duffle coats were the order of the day, with the bonfire to keep us warm, before retiring inside the warm kitchen for hot dogs. Don't be drawn into armchair meteorologist s. Go out in the country and study local pointers and natural events. Trying to look at weather patterns from hocus pocus yuppie named models will only make you more frustrated.

Hi Guys, thanks for chipping in with comments. Interestingly 2010 was a La Nina year. Although didn't really see more than an inch or two in Blackpool at the time. "Most models indicate that the 2020/2021 La Niña is likely to be a moderate to strong event. ". However I'm not convinced on its own it will bring harsh winter to UK. Previous La Nina years going back many years, were not embroiled in anomaly busting global warming. However, on my studies of the Polar Vortex of late, its been suggested that so much warming is and has occurred, that the theory is, that it could increase the chances of The Polar Vortex collapsing due to wavy jet stream However Over the last 10 years, I have seen very little easterly Airflow either in Summer or Winter over most of Northern Europe. We are in a la Nino event now, but any effects probably wont really materialise until another 8 -10 weeks or so. My readers on my weather page, were fascinated that actually late 1962, it was still mild, wild , rain, and nothing to suggest at that time, what was to hit us in late December 62 into January 1963 So indeed nature can play tricks on us, but the tricks in my days were sort of expected or accepted. These days since 2010 has changed vastly again, and I'm almost tempted to say the days of "Beasts from the Easts" may become a memory. There is cold back in Russia this year. Moscow last year had to import snow for christmas. This year the whole siberian area is back to pretty normal with lows of -32%. Belarus has been bitter lately due to 1057mb giant High pressure system. I get a really good feel of movements from Windy.com which I am a premier member of. Its TOS licence also allows people to use or capture their maps to use on their pages for presentation purposes, and love its 10 days projected global movements , currents and other pertinent data. catch up again soon

Hi ! Just joined while looking browsing some Ice sheet updates. I may be new here, but I have been studying weather and climate since 1963 so Im pretty old. But my experience living through the sixties and seventies is second to none, so Im reasonably up with current events. However I was bought up most of my life in Analogue and basic principles. I don't take much notice of all these computers, they are far away from how I forecast and look at general themes. I have always used Nature itself to forecast and look at pointers to trends. In January 1963 We had on the South east Sussex coast 3 months of the most brutal weather i had seen as a 15 year old. Since those days i have seen my world and UK become a Mediterranean climate. It can no longer be called the United Kingdom old climate I knew it from the 60's and 70's. its quite funny watching lots of people discussing 1996 weather, when most have no idea what a sixties winter actually was like living through it. Snow was regular along most of the Sussex and Kent coast. because most of our winter weather came mainly from the East or South East out of Holland and Germany. I made my first home made instruments in 1963 to put in our garden on a wood box above 3 feet of snow in our Eastbourne garden. helped by school teachers who gave us some hints and drawings. It amazes me that actually the forecasting in the 60's through to 1980's was pretty well accurate without needing computers and all the rubbish that seems to accompany it now. Michael Fish's stick on pads were good enough for us, and in many scenarios, those forecasters were uncannily correct. "If it said snow expected in South east England by tomorrow morning" ,That's what you got,: NOT, maybe, chance of, dont know yet, to early to say, unsure of track. Weather is nature its driven by nature not computers, no computer can forecast a natural complicated turmoil of jet Streams, low pressure and high pressure systems. Through my years of school and into work up to 1980 Eastbourne and Sussex had a lot of snow. I know this cos I lived through the years, and we headed up to the south downs golf courses to ski, more times than I remember. The railway station i worked in even in the seventies was always covered in snow almost part of every year, blocking out the sun making the station so cold had to use gloves to work. cars were left at home or put on blocks till next spring, my vespa scooter i had to walk around with, instead of riding it, because of huge 6inch ruts of slush refroze by 6pm. Yes I have experienced Blizzards along the seafront so severe, you had to shelter because you just couldn't see anything. The 1963 big freeze became my launch pad into meteorology, and past the 2004 film "The day after Tomorrow" Which got me interested in clocking ice sheet break away. The last white Christmas i have had in the last 25 years, was in Richmond North Yorkshire, where we got snowed in with relations on boxing day in the nineties. But my times then were more interspersed with violent thunderstorms and water spouts in summer. Oh and yes in 1963 -1970 we had several snow storms with thunder snow. The only concession to digital instruments is a GPS weather station and an outside hanging on the first floor kitchen wall the outside sensor. My days of living in a house had long gone by 1989. I actually hate living in the North west, its truly has the worst climate in England, mild, soggy, foggy, no wind inland and dangerously low levels of sunlight in winter. We still get heatwaves though, courtesy of the expanding heat from North Africa that changes our normal south westerlies in Southerlies, and the cool east winds we enjoyed in summer in Sussex has long gone now. On closing my first post, I do worry, about an outbreak from Russia and watching a lot of Siberian air around high pressure of 1057mb. If the Vortex did collapse end of year and into 2021, Its frightning to think thousands will die, because unlike 1963, among the many power cuts we endured, we had several fuel sources. Electric, gas, parafin heaters, and what we all used coal fires, that in our guest house heated a back boiler, so we had hot water, and fire banked up at night, and parafin heaters on the landings. It should be noted, that without thought, many dwellings now have just one source and thats all electric. Thats one change i worry about in a severe winter when power lines are down, there is no secondary of third source of heat or cooking s. 1963 was an amazing winter, but we were never cold indoors, I just hate to think of the consequences of another one in this country with the lack of secondary fuel source in place to keep people not only alive but able to cook hot meals. thanks so much for reading Mike