[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Frustrating how the intense convective easterly is shunted well North of the UK by the Iberian high.

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GEM is not what we want.

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14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer looked not too bad early on and ended rubbish .

Heights rising to our West at 180h so not bad for longevity. 

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is anyone here ? The 00z Icon to my eye looks decent at T144 . 

ICON isn't great. Cold struggling with push of milder uppers not far.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

7 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Ha ha ha! Make your mind up! 

Weather changes understand that instead of making those types of posts.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

59 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Disagree, sat image says otherwise as well as wind convergence has now shifted

Think you are right here now.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Gowon said:

Why did you get rid of your picture?

Can we return to analysing this snow event

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Gowon said:

Is this the same Kasim that was obsessed with the Iberian heights?

Yes why?

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Disagree, sat image says otherwise as well as wind convergence has now shifted

You'd be surprised how quickly convection can develop in this flow. Yes the radar looks poor at present. Wait until 6/7pm.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, TSNWK said:

But @Kasim Awanis suggesting convention possible of North Kent coast into evening   

Snow will accumulate better with these light flurries. Some observations would be helpful.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

The lowest uppers  have NOT yet passed we have until around 6/7pm tonight.

@TSNWK Convection looks good until 1/2am.

There are indications 5cm has fallen in parts of Kent. My 15cm shout is still possible.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

8 minutes ago, StLuke said:

Typical temperature and Dp are now prime for settling but snow has stopped!  

The streamer going into North Kent will develop and push West next few hours.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Edenbridge about to see 4/5mm of precipitation.

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1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

got some snowflakes down my street

Haven't we all.

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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The vast majority of the lighter stuff probably doesn't actually exist, ideally need the darker blues/greens to see falling snow, anaprop is a fairly large issue in these situations. 

Will need to await arrival before confirming this.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

These runs look bldy awesome for snow.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks promising already

Looking at the cosmo model the current streamer will be replaced by a stronger one further West in a few hours.

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10 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Netweather V8 radar showing a sleety mix at 06.30. Looking at the Arome forecast for 2m temps, most of the Region is unfortunately the wrong side of zero and stays that way despite the -10C 850hPa isotherm reaching us by 16.00 this afternoon.

Situation at 16.00 this afternoon:

850 temps  2m temps

In any heavier showers temperatures will hit 0c fairly quickly.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Definitely more than flurries tomorrow. Difficult to forecast streamer intensity however mid morning there is potential for a narrow but potent streamer into west Kent. Similar in the evening. 2-7cm possible fairly widely if it develops well with marginality an issue at times within 10 miles of coast 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

14 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

But it’s the safest option to get the cold at all now. Infinitely better than that LP getting into no mans land to our SW where it both cuts off WAA and encourages a European pressure rise.

Getting there now the cold to our NE is definitely the bigger driver, Azores systems are just working to delay the cold so my posts are regarding details.

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Just now, Daniel* said:

It seems more help than hindrance supporting WAA

But makes the cold slow to advect South. 

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Just now, Daniel* said:

no, the opposite. Very clear.

 old 

 

I was referring to the higher pressure over Iberia. Makes for a less amplified pattern.

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GFS for me looks less amplified this run, we shall see.

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5 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Potential snow maker, low to South and cold air diving south.

Yes but also a concern as it sides with yesterday's ecm 12z.

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Yesterday's Icon 12z vs today's 00z. Shift North definitely.