Kasim Awan
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Posts posted by Kasim Awan
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Just now, Mapantz said:
The same ARPEGE that predicted this?
Reality:
Well on that observation chart gusts of 55-60mph inland are pretty significant so the arpege was likely onto something even if it didn’t fully materialise. We can’t just discount it given how severe it could be, the stakes are very high and it is a definite possibility. What if this time the mechanisms responsible for the higher wind gust potential fully materialised but we shrugged off the possibility? It’s not safe to go off anecdotal evidence and past events / just the UKV when the impacts are this high. It could quite easily affect the central belt of Scotland this is a high concern.
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4 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:Looks like a storm that we get maybe once or twice a year. Nasty yes, overly concerning probably not. Western Scotland is used a proper battering so 90mph there is the equivalent of 70-75mph in the south imo.
No way do we get this magnitude storm once or twice a year, once every 2 or 3 years at a push probably more like once every 4 years for the extent of 65mph winds.
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Just now, Ice Day said:
And not to leave our Irish and Welsh members out, Southern Ireland and Wales looks to be hit hard earlier on Sunday evening
60-70mph widely for inland areas is not to be taken lightly as it is a 1 in 5 year event.
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8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
Yep, the Arpege has cranked things up a little across the board. Now showing widespread 70mph gusts across Southern England on Sunday night.
Then into the small hours there's a very strong swathe of winds into the Western Isles. 95mph may be entirely possible.
I'd hope this downgrades a little into the coming runs.
Oh I’d go with Arpege and Icon over the UKV.
8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:Yep, the Arpege has cranked things up a little across the board. Now showing widespread 70mph gusts across Southern England on Sunday night.
Then into the small hours there's a very strong swathe of winds into the Western Isles. 95mph may be entirely possible.
I'd hope this downgrades a little into the coming runs.
Hope is unnecessary now we’re facing a likely severe sting in the far NW with 60-70mph widely inland I feel a widespread amber is needed.
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100mph possible in the sting jet into western Scotland at low levels supported by arpege and icon.
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6 minutes ago, MJB said:
PV absolutely hammered at the end of the GFS 6z...........promising signs . Yes it's as far out as one could go, but lets see if it's a trend
Probably no more than random noise at that range.
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Wet snow since 6am.
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1 hour ago, Winter Hill said:
I was not having a dig, Kasim.
just saying having great elevation does not always give you top spot.. this week winner on Tuesday was Preston.Yeah I know you wern't haha, just saying high ground to the West of Buxton is very good for snow, moreso than Kinder area in my opinion.
1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:November was a Sunday event yes? Me and my mates struggled to get back from Edinburgh that day! Don't remember a march 23 event. I'm staggered there were 20 ft drifts. Am I missing something here???
People don't believe but I get the perspective living here I see the drifts that are usually out of main view.
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4 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:
Sorry, Kasim
having 350M+ does not guarantee you gold medal every snow event. By the looks of things, you did not get anywhere near Bronze medal in this cold spell.
that’s life !November 2021 and March 2023 were really decent snow events with severe drifting snow 20ft drifts in the area, to have those two events in these mild times in close succession is very good achievement.
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46 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
A 7 out of 10 for cold, 3 ice days in 4 days is good going.
A 4 out of 10 for snow, the mild sector spoilt things.
Yeah 4cm of snow here for 6 days is really trivial here.
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I'd give this cold spell 2/10 for my location.
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I don't think this is changing much overnight.
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Currently -3.5C, 4cm of snow on the ground.
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A batch of showers moving down 6-8pm, 1-3cm Cumbria elsewhere scattered dustings.
Around 30% chance of 1-5cm widely from a more potent streamer.
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2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
The 'snow starved south' that we constantly hear in that thread is a myth then!? Doesn't sound too snow starved to me, average is 1 in 5 years here and I know some other parts of our region certainly don't get anything like the above. I wish we where as snow starved as you, highest depth here 10cm's give or take.
The climatic snow increases as you go east in the region is very bold. I'd say every mile and 30ft of altitude gets you an extra 15 minutes falling snow per Winter.
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Overall the NW (low level inland) sees insignificant 2-5cm falls more frequently than you (low level inland), with the coastal strip seeing infrequent small falls and very rare massive falls. Higher ground above 250m sees consistent moderate to heavy falls.
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24 minutes ago, ptow said:
Its interesting now that you mention it. We down South have this thought that the North always has the snow whereby we get scraps but is it actually true? A few of my events experienced aside from 1980's (numerous), 1987, 1991:
2008/9? = 10cm's lasted a whole week
Dec 2009 = 21cm lasted past Christmas
Jan 2010 = 34cm lasted for 2 weeks
Dec 2010 = 10cm lasted over a week, then again another 8cm that also lasted a week
2012? = 12cm lasted a week
2013 - 2017 several one day events of 5cm ish
2018 = 9cm's lasted 4/5 days
2020 = 1cm lasted a week
2021 = 1 cm lasted a week
2023 = 8cm's lasted 2 days
How does this compare? I expect its less, but is it really much less?
And yes, those hot days are something else without aircon!
That is on par with low elevation parts of West Cheshire and Western Greater Manchester. But this is still a lot more than west of the M6 which you probably see a little more snow than there. However far less than even the slightly elevated parts of the region, 150m asl East of Manchester will see atleast 2x that. So overall the North West is slightly snowier as your mid level areas see the same as our low level areas.
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Just now, Battleground Snow said:
The waa that supports a potential Scandinavian high is clearly an option in the 192-240, range.
It is dependent on how the troughs spawning off the tpv to the northwest orientate, e:g if they are sufficiently west and negatively tilted, so that they don't flatten the ridge and push it too far east.
It's an unlikely outcome admittedly on the current modelling, with only a few rogue runs going for this, but I'm not sure why you think it's not possible at all under this setup
I absolutely agree there is a signal for waa into western Scandinavia but we're missing low heights over Iberia. As a result a Scandinavian high will unlikely result in easterly winds in the UK and have very little impact on UK conditions.
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
From the runs I’ve seen, the Iberian heights pumped up by the zonal spell are part and parcel of any evolution to a Scandi high, by means of building those heights first through the UK and then into Scandi with a deep Atlantic trough providing the WAA for such an evolution.
I have no idea how suddenly the concensus is that Scandinavian heights are somehow likely.
The last 7 days has shown us that the atmosphere is very resistant to any sustained blocking signal.
No model output reliably shows a Scandinavian high building in a sustained manner. All output shows features of a phase of strong zonal winds which in El Nino late winter periods tends to be a sustained period. For me this one is complete heresay as I see nothing to suggest the possibility. This is just referring to the next 10-14 days after this options are on the table, as they are with every long term outlook.
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:
very mild with those uppers?
are you sure?The overall pattern is conducive to mild weather.
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Just now, Gowon said:
There's potential there you just need to know where to look - you're too focused on those Iberian heights.
No I'm not too focused. They're there and they're very influential. This time I'm not backing down from my ascertions which are scientifically and evidentially supported. A cold easterly wind is not possible with a 580hpa high over Iberia, no arguing that.
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1 minute ago, Gowon said:
We'll see cos the GFS looks similar
Come on now guys exceptional mild on that chart and no scope for cold due to the stonking Iberian heights.
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Just now, Gowon said:
Sorry for the late response, but It's a positive sign whenever heights start to build over to our NE I get interested
GFS might be going for it as well:
That to me looks like a bog standard very mild chart with minimal scope for cold.
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2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Indeed, it's mainly Scotland showing off with warmer seas and a very cold unstable northerly low heights and -40C at 500hPA, with now some quite deep convecton again slamming northern parts. Few villages in Sutherland and Caithness likely under a foot now and more to come next 48 hours. I wouldn't rule out some inhabitated place closing in to 45-50cm by Friday afternoon.
Nice to see however I have seen similar from a toppler northerly so this doesn't mean anything.
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36 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
You can see who has done well now as the frontal cloud clears away.
Looking at that I don't think you can argue against that this has been a big letdown. Many are trying to spin this cold spell saying "the synoptics were good and it was cold". No the signal was not strong enough for the synoptics required to produce decent snowfall. The greenland high sunk and the Iberian high strengthened. Little chance of majoe snow when those two happen together. That was obvious around a week ago.
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Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I get 80mph atleast twice a year, because I get those events which are limited to 1500ft+, so the forecast 80mph here is not as impactful as 65mph on low levels.