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Gizzy

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Posts posted by Gizzy

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Fozfoster said:

    This is the first year, I’ve been thinking this ,it’s probably crept up on me, I used to get excited with the model thread and believe that what I saw and read was going to happen, but now after 15 years on here, the climate is changing , new technology and the super Met Office, deep dive on YouTube my visits here are becoming less.  From your full-time lurker from now on .

    Don't blame you one bit.

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

    Originally it went from the 7th, that turned to a UK high which we were told it would still be cold at the surface, yet forecast temperatures are around 7 degrees (I know its been colder elsewhere). Then got told its from the 15th and now that 'seems' to be getting watered down the closer we get. 

    I'm not expecting too much from this cold spell unless things change. 

    It seems pointless reading weather models unless it's your job. It's just a hobby of leading you down the garden path. How many booms and bins are needed till people realise this.

    I fully agree.

    I must say I go in the mod threads and pick up little pieces, take much of it as a pinch of salt but regardless of what is said/ suggested / forecast in the thread I always find my way back to the good old met office outlook and whilst they can, and still do, get things wrong it's probably the best option available.

    Oh and PS, the met office outlook is still very promising for our region, early northerly with a North easterly still being touted, albeit a dry one, but yet we all know a north easterly can get some disturbances within it and we are bang in line.

    To be honest it is just good to have some interest with still a good chunk of winter still to come.

    • Like 2

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, NorthEastSnow said:

    So as we edge closer to the cold what are people’s thoughts for this area, 

    I think the favoured spots North York Moors will do well from the northerly, people inland like myself I feel will be a fustrating time.

    We might also have to sit back and watch the south get buried in snow as I doubt the front will get this far North, it’s a catch 22, we either want to stay in the colder air or get loads of snow. 

    Either way it beats the relentless rain. Bring on hopefully lots of snow for us Northeasterners. ⛄️ 

    Morning NES, for me there is still so much to be decided and it will be the weekend before we have some kind of 50/50 balance on how it may turn out.

    Certainly this cold has been watered down over the past week or so but for us I do believe we will see some heavy snow showers by early next week, after that it will depend how far north that front gets.

    After reading the mod thread and the absolute southern bias in there I hope it chucks down with rain for them, let it stall over them for days whilst we keep the cold in place ( I say that tongue in cheek as them areas certainly don't want more rain).

    • Like 3

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Airedalejoe said:

    Latest Met office longer range is suggesting possibly a more NE flow as time goes on during the potentially long, upcoming cold spell.

    In my experience this is the best direction for snow, 'lake effect' heavy snow showers coming in off the North Sea, beats frontal 'events' hands down.

    Snow tyres fitted to car and it's all eyes on Monday onwards.

    Totally agree, we always do better with NE or E and, as you mention, the white gold looks like it might very soon be within reach.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    I can't see the point tbh mate..its only valid if you log in..you can still read everyone's posts when not logged in. And tbh it's good to hear those that lose there heads every second of the day as it brightens up my rather sad life 🤣

    Long time lurker on here, with the odd Post thrown in, but I always like your posts Matt, always seem sensible, balanced and on point.

    I know nothing about models so it's good to hear from the sad person as we chase and chase the white gold, keep it up mate.

    • Like 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, A.J said:

    Mods, sorry to pick out this individual post but its so indicative of how a thread can be easily derailed by broadbrush one liner posts with no evidence or analysis, just a throw-away negative comment 

    Moans and Ramps ??

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

    I have not contributed  to this thread either this winter and certainly not said anything to the wife and 4 yr old...yet! Burnt too many times in the past, although they must hear it from me first before mainstream media🤣

    Certainly watching and reading with interest on upcoming developments.

    Fantastic contributions from everyone.

    I will continue to play MAD alphabet  bingo in the meantime.

    Starting with the 12zs.

    Bingo if the below are mentioned in desperation or excitment!

    Aperge

    Bin

    collapse

    Dam-line

    Encouraging 

    Frost

    Greenland

    high-risk

    Icon

    Jma

    Knee-jerk

    Longevity 

    Mogreeps

    Nuts

    Obviously

    Pub-run

    Questionable 

    Realistically 

    Scatter

    Trumps

    Unlikely

    Verification

    Wishful

    X rated

    Yikes

    z- list

     

    You missed out BOOM

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Beanz said:

    Absolutely! Nothing more ridiculous than people posting 300hr precip and snow accum charts - and the same people still do it every year. 

    I agree, it is exciting to read but the reality is often way off. Its even worse if your like me, when you get excited with it all and tell the family there is a mighty freezing spell on its way with copious amounts of snow and we end up with a thirteen degree westerly haha.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    Yes indeed. The UKMO was giving the coldest setups until now when it has backed away and as you say, more in line with others.

    Interestingly, the MeteoGroup / BBC forecasters didn’t go along with the UKMO model. Would I be right in thinking they use the ECM foremost?

    Yes I would be interested to know what model the met/bbc use as, though they do sometimes get it wrong, more often than not they get it right and that is both short and longer term.

    Long time lurker in here and although this is a good place for the hints at longer term signals, bizarrely, it seems the closer it gets the more it goes wrong in here.

    I do tend to pick up bits in here but always revert to the met longer term for confirmation.

    • Like 4

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Chris Smith said:

    I haven't lived up here for that long, four years in Durham and before that, three years in Guisborough. Prior to that, I lived in Norfolk. In those three places, the same has held true; when they say there's going to be a "Northerly", it's invariably a "Northwesterly", and the convection stays out there in the North Sea, leering at us, and the weather is mostly dry and frosty.

    But in that time, I've not seen a decent slider low - running NW to SE down the spine of the country. The last one I can remember (doesn't mean there haven't been others since) was 1981 when I lived in South London. When I left home to drive to work one morning, it was raining - but by the time I got to work in Carshalton, it was snowing and the temperature was already below zero. By the end of the day, the snow was a good 10cm.

    The climate is no longer like it was in the 1980s. SSTs are really high this year. I just don't know what's going to happen. Very likely, it will be like most years, a mixture of everything, but it seems to me there's much more scope for high dew-point cold rain/sleet events these days than there used to be, and that's a sad thing.

    ETA: As an afterthought - have to say, I can't remember ever seeing the Azores high getting close to 1050. That's just nuts!

    Oh so you have had some time in Guisborough, you know the frustrations then.

    I always remember I used to live down on the coast and when I moved to Guisborough I thought that I would see much more snow ( always seemed to be the case when I lived on the coast ) but hasn't really worked out that way though 2009/10/18 were interesting at times.

    I remember Feb 2018 well, starting a new job and having to drive to Durham for induction in thick snow, arrived and I was the only one there, even the local inductor hadn't made it, that was fun !!

    Anyway, yes I agree, it certainly seems much different these days but let's hope we get to see a little something over the season.

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gizzy

    1 hour ago, ScottSnow said:

    Slow thaw here this morning.

    I just watched John Hammond on the news and he mentioned about cold returning later in the month towards Christmas. Hopefully he’s right.

     

    IMG_3472.jpeg

    Well the bookies aren't rich by giving things away and the odds for Northern cities, Edinburgh, Newcastle etc are pretty stingy at the moment.

    I think there is a good chance after a couple of weeks of less cold weather we could see something wintry around Christmas time, nothing scientific in my thinking by the way, just a general gut feeling.

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, NorthEastSnow said:

    When I looked out the window this morning it was a winter wonder land thick snow and loads on the ground, there is still a decent amount but can only assume it rain a bit after. 
    No complaints here though this is the best start to winter in ages! 

    Mate I drove to Tees barrage this morning, wow, you got a real good covering, much more than we have accumulated over the past four days, looked amazing, like driving into a Christmas film.

    • Like 1
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