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Gizzy

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Posts posted by Gizzy

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    How is it curtains exactly.It is turning much colder .It is going to snow in places.Their will be severe frosts.The end of the next week was always trending less cold,but if you think the models have nailed the pattern 7 days ahead then you obviously haven;t been looking at weather charts very long.

    To be fair to the poster this is what this forum is about, looking ahead with the models. If it had gone the other way it would have been boom time in here and it would have been nailed on.

    It seems some just don't understand the models, as someone said if our winters were day 10 it would be boom time every day. 

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gizzy

    16 hours ago, Willitwontit said:

    I know nothing about the technicalities of predicting weather. All I do know is that every time snow is predicted, it appears on the Netweather 7 day postcode forecast, starts slipping later into those 7 days, and then disappears altogether. As it just has done this afternoon 🙄

     

    As someone put in the main thread a few weeks backs, if our winters worked out the same as the day 10 charts we would get snow every day !!

    So true as well, always the promise but never seems to materialise.

    But i think we will all see some this coming week.

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, NorthEastSnow said:

    We are finally in a snow warning. None of this draw round Stockton / Darlington rubbish 😂 let’s hope this time we all have some fun. 
     

    I will add though I’m sure it’s going to be frustrating for me as can see the showers only clipping coastal regions again. 

    Think it is time to book a one night stay at the Lion Inn, Blakey.

    Extended to a 5 night stay due to bad weather!!!

    • Like 3

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

    I did it didn’t I bloody Jinxed it😂. ECM is a disaster but it’s at the top of its ensemble suite and has no support from other models. If its right I’m joining Gizzy in netweather retirement 😂
     

    We still get some snow it what is the worst case scenario for now Could contain: Chart, Plot

    Could contain: Chart, Plot, Text

    I still think it will all fall back into place in the coming days and we will be some of the ones in the sweet spot.

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gizzy

    11 minutes ago, Fairweather Teessider said:

    The other thread just seems to be full of self important southerners who moan when they're in Cornwall because they haven't seen any snow! 😂

     

    Thank god for my mate from Redcar who balances it out ( seabreeze ) 😉

     

    Anyway, looks promising for next week. Ironically will be up Guisborough woods if it does!

    Yes, I see seabreeze being very diplomatic in there haha.

    Hopefully that visit to guisborough woods comes off for you, it's certainly looking very promising.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MATT TATTOO said:

    Not really fantasy though is it? Models have been hinting at much colder conditions...so have the met! Unfortunately what some do is for with the seasonal norm knowing there's a good chance they will be correct! Those who pin pinpoint any kind of weather extreme on here deserve credit.

    Regarding met check they wouldn't be seeing anything more than us with regards to the data. Only the met office will have greater data at there disposal,and super computers to crunch all that information.

    And you know what makes me giggle.. the very same few who keep telling us that we can forget any significant cold,will be the same ones who will be telling us we can forget any significant Heat this Summer!

    I aren't disputing that there is bound to be colder spells but it was just Friday I was reading about the great blizzard that was going to affect Kent in 13 days time , just ridiculous really.

    The reality is we may see snow but in my thinking it will be a slush fest.

     

    1 minute ago, MJB said:

    No they don't they tell it as per each GFS run .....................isn't that what happens on here ?

    Yes so real not fantasy in la la land.

    PS, what has happened to that great blizzard that was going to hit Kent in thirteen days time.

    It's like fantasy Island.

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

    It's always interesting to find someone who knows exactly what the weather through the whole of March is going  to be in advance of it actually happening.

     

    There is lots on here but I don't want to disappoint you they are unfortunately wrong the majority of the time.

    Just looked at mecheck, fourteen and fifteen for my location mid march, not sure we will see much snow with that

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Short of time but I am becoming fairly excited at a trend I am seeing in the ECM ensembles. I won't get into detail just yet as it involves the word "Potential" and this is for the period from 10th March onwards. I can fully understand members are fed up with these words.

    All im going to say is March 10 onwards and exceptional cold not coming from the N but NE/E!

    Hope you are right.

    • Like 1

    Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, geordiekev said:

    Sorry but even the experts don't know how the current slowing of the stratospheric winds will effect how stagnant the pretty much expected HP formation will be, so if you do find someone knowledgeable good luck.

    Fact is the trend has counted down to the point most models should now start picking up on the evolution, so then we can discuss probabilities.

    Anyone not interested in charts like this from yesterday & today at yes the D10 range perhaps need a different thread

    Could contain: Art, Outdoors, Nature, Graphics

    Could contain: Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Nature, Art

    But there is lots of posts for blizzards in certain regions for day thirteen / fourteen.

    How far do we want to look ahead.

    At this rate we will be looking at winter 23/24.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Going back to this post last Sunday, and despite the ups, downs and drama that model watching brings, very little has changed. 

    The broad direction of travel remains towards our high retrogressing towards Greenland, there remains the same uncertainty re: precise location and thus UK specific detail has been chopping and changing with every run, but the broadscale signal has remains the same. 

    It's sometimes good to "look back" a few days to see where we were compared with where we are now. The second warming/reversal is yet to happen, once this takes place we should hopefully see modelling firm up on broader details for early March.

    I will firm up on my broader details for early March.

    It will be colder, the sun will shine, the snow may fall in showers on to wet ground.

    Hope I am wrong.

     

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