Quantock
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Quantock replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, the EC not budging on its elimination of winter. This winter I’ve taken to following the UKMO first and foremost and I reckon it’s been pretty solid in pointing the direction albeit only at the T144-168 timeframe it offers. GFS has done its thing of showing trends in FI, sometimes a yes and sometimes a no but then that’s not surprising. ECM seems to have done a lot of following - picking up trends only when they have been shown by the others. Of course this could be my imagination but I thought I’d mention It.. So I’m hopeful that the EC diet is ‘behind the curve’ in pointing the way to a colder Feb..... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Quantock replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ll go with @frosty ground on this one! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Quantock replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well we could say it’s gone wrong now -save all the waiting Sorry to be a bit flippant but we all have the same charts to look at. I expect the same discussions happen in the MetO so no wonder they keep their powder dry before making statements about any extreme weather. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Quantock replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Except the UK sinking high hasn’t verified yet..... Lessons. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Quantock replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Quantock replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The world is indeed our lobster.... -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Quantock replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Your location looks similar to mine for ‘proper frosts’ which one could say was an air frost. They’re very rare for me before mid November - most years it’s towards the end of November. That said, this weekend looks primed although being only five miles from the coast and not in a frost hollow, I still may only get ground frost. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Quantock replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure any model is reliable at 240 hours. GFS can be very good at picking up trends a long way out, ECM better at the 6-10 day range and hopefully this evenings run will continue to develop HP influence over the UK. Where it sits is another matter... -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Quantock replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ‘airmass’, (presumably 850hpa temps) will be much colder than average as currently modelled on the ensembles charts. Whether that translates to lower/higher than average 2m temperatures is a rather different matter and will not become clearer until nearer the time or sometimes on the day/night itself. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Quantock replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m not sure what you’re expecting for the middle of October...Snow drifts and ice days? Below average temps and frosts look likely. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Quantock replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m five miles from the coast in Somerset (100m ASL) and had snow in December that lasted a week so if the charts are similar to then, that’s perfect!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Quantock replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But it’s not wrong yet? And the others aren’t right yet either..... -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Quantock replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
15C in the Scillies and snow in Shetland on Xmas day is a reasonable double this year...... -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Quantock replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Lying snow this morning and moderate snowfall at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Quantock replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The dry pattern starts today and for the foreseeable future so I suppose it came right in the end.. -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
Quantock replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Low minimums are the key to getting a 2C CET. More easily achieved under a northerly than an easterly, given the latter is more prone to giving cloudy conditions and while suppressing the maximum temps, the minimums don’t fall far enough. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Quantock replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Control and Operational on the very mildest side of the GEFS ensemble range from 192 hrs... -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Quantock replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Uk MET at 168 hrs this morning showing mid Atlantic high pressure ridging towards Greenland with low pressure in the Med around Sicily. The intense lows shown by ECM and GFS at the same time frame (which then go on to flatten the HP) are absent on the MET solution so some interest if this pans out. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
Quantock replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aye aye aye aye aye aye... Hopefully the cold air will arrive if the jet calms down - that looks like the key at the moment