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Quantock

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Posts posted by Quantock

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Absolutely no sign of winter on EC det .

    Let's hope it was a horrid outlier ..

    So sad this thread is so dead in the heart of winter 😔

    Indeed, the EC not budging on its elimination of winter.

    This winter I’ve taken to following the UKMO first and foremost and I reckon it’s been pretty solid in pointing the direction albeit only at the T144-168 timeframe it offers.  GFS has done its thing of showing trends in FI, sometimes a yes and sometimes a no but then that’s not surprising.  ECM seems to have done a lot of following - picking up trends only when they have been shown by the others.  Of course this could be my imagination but I thought I’d mention It..

    So I’m hopeful that the EC diet is ‘behind the curve’ in pointing the way to a colder Feb.....

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Quantock
    Edit

    7 minutes ago, Gowon said:

    The first time I've looked at the models since the 12z and I can't believe how quickly the cold has collapsed.

    I'm hoping it's a data issue and they're all wrong 🤪

    MetO and GEM both keep with cold and have high pressure over the UK at T168.  MetO has been pretty solid with the development of this cold spell and it’s the first place I look now before I think changes are going to occur.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Not a great GFS12z looks like a move towards the ECM. This seems to have been the longest chase ever since December. Seems now we are relying on the GEM. You couldn’t make it up 😩🤣

     

    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    GFS goes cold with chances of heavy snow, it’s not a solid GH but that doesn’t make it a bad run

    I’ll go with @frosty ground on this one!

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    You can predict the next run based on the previous few - as i said, there's no problem with the GEFS suite at all, but will we be still saying that in 2 days?

    Well we could say it’s gone wrong now -save all the waiting 😂

    Sorry to be a bit flippant but we all have the same charts to look at.  I expect the same discussions happen in the MetO so no wonder they keep their powder dry before making statements about any extreme weather.

    • Like 3
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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, DCee said:

    Well that was short lived, return to average and cooler conditions at times with a UK sinking high.

    But most importantly much dryer.

    Come on guys, what did you really expect chasing 10 and 14 day charts?

    Lessons....

    Except the UK sinking high hasn’t verified yet.....

    Lessons.

    • Like 18
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Quantock

    16 minutes ago, E17boy said:

    IMG_0903.thumb.png.db87bc6cf6bcb2dd537224ef2a45313a.png

    Hi peeps,

    Hope you are all well. I am excited about the current model output but the above has struck me a bit. If our cold is going to come from the east then the above temperature for Siberia can’t be right on the app for next week. I know the apps are never right the change more times in a day to be honest, but thought I had to add this as it seemed not right 

    Anyway let the upgrades keep coming fingers crossed 🤞 it’s on its way.

    have a great evening all 😊😊😊😊

     

    Depends whereabouts in Siberia you are looking…

    image.thumb.png.5063c8eae03521dcb8e8af5f89098797.png

     

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Quantock

    10 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    Yes. Really looking forward to some sharp frosts hopefully. My plants, and their gardener (me!) need them. 

    Having to wait until the end of November for the first proper frost still baffles me but as last December showed, we can still get really potent cold spells. The end of the ECM run is interesting in suggesting a possible extension.

    Your location looks similar to mine for ‘proper frosts’  which one could say was an air frost.  They’re very rare for me before mid November - most years it’s towards the end of November.  That said, this weekend looks primed although being only five miles from the coast and not in a frost hollow, I still may only get ground frost.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    As usual . I don't even know why people still consider GFS a reliable model when it's not anymore 

    Not sure any model is reliable at 240 hours.  GFS can be very good at picking up trends a long way out, ECM better at the 6-10 day range and hopefully this evenings run will continue to develop HP influence over the UK.  Where it sits is another matter...

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, seb said:

    For 1 or 2 days which is exactly what you are showing; and which is in line with MetO, and with what I (and others) have said. It's also not "much colder than average".

    London October average night time temps are 8 degrees and average daytime temps are 14. Even on Sunday which so far looks to be the "peak" of the "colder" air, the low for London is 5 degrees and the high is 14 degrees. Add to that the ECM more often than not underestimates night time temps and it could well be 24 hours with bang on average temps.

    As for frost - a few areas north of Manchester on Sunday morning and the same area (roughly) again on Monday morning (unless you want to take the ECM for Monday morning at face value where some patches show up across the central parts of country... but this is of course not supported elsewhere). 

    The ‘airmass’, (presumably 850hpa temps) will be much colder than average as currently modelled on the ensembles charts.  Whether that translates to lower/higher than average 2m temperatures is a rather different matter and will not become clearer until nearer the time or sometimes on the day/night itself.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    And to follow Up on my above comment, I ve isolated combined blend of analogs vs the ECMWF 0Z "outcome" a touch more -NAO this year courtesy of Nino regime we been in otherwise its a Mirror image. I ve been also pointing out a lot how misserable the UKMO 16-30 day was with constant dry theme clearly a big fail.

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    The dry pattern starts today and for the foreseeable future so I suppose it came right in the end..

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

     

    A fair few Decembers between 1659 and 2021 come in at 2.3C or lower. The problem is that most of them are pre 1900.

    Since 1950 only 7 out of 72 Decembers make the cut to prevent the annual CET record from getting broken.

    Year    December CET
    1995    2.30C
    1961    2.20C
    1976    2.00C
    1962    1.80C
    1950    1.20C
    1981    0.30C
    2010    -0.70C

    1995 only just scrapes the requirement to prevent the record. Can't see us getting something that low even if the models are hinting at something colder.

    Will need to see charts like these at regular points during December coming off to prevent the year ending as warmest on record

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    Low minimums are the key to getting a 2C CET.   More easily achieved under a northerly than an easterly, given the latter is more prone to giving cloudy conditions and while suppressing the maximum temps, the minimums don’t fall far enough.

    • Like 1
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