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Chiltern_Blizzard

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Everything posted by Chiltern_Blizzard

  1. anyone have any thoughts on views on how far west this event might spread? GFS seems to have it almost country wide? Where as the ICON seems to keep much further east I'm wondering if im too far west in Bucks.
  2. I'm aston clinton side. I had abkut 4cm lying snow but melted very quick. Comparison a few miles away about 130asl it was laying for a few days. Places in the chiltern hills got 4 inches last week
  3. Tim. Thoughts in heights to settle? I'm at 90asl. But I think anything over 150 will seeing settling snow.
  4. Rain for 3 hours then heavy snow for 3 hours. Hope it might settle. Touch too low I fear at 90m asl Aylesbury
  5. I'm with you! Arperge wasn't the best last weekend from memory. Kept snow at the m4 line...when in actually went much further north. Hoping harmonie has it correct again
  6. Harmonie did really well last weekend. Others were calling it much further south and west, but 'she' got the track.
  7. interesting difference in shirt term models for weekend Arpege ICON GFS GEM
  8. Now thats on the line! Similar to last weeks snow event. I'm holding back till tomorrow to really get excited. I do think many further south and east will get something. My worry is dew points. We say them rise quickly after the event with snow melting only a few hours after settling.
  9. Sorry should of said it has stuck. I'm in Aylesbury. We had about 4cm i would say? But a few miles up the road in the hills.. They had 10cm easily. Really annoying it snowed very heavily from 9am -10.30 and got a good covering but its been snowing ever since but not adding to total. Just melting.
  10. Non stop falling snow for 4 hours. But dp too high. All melting. So annoying. 4 inches up on hills.
  11. All to play for. I have a feeling it will go further north and east than what we expect. Fingers crossed as this part of the world has seen only a light dusting all winter. Sweet spot could be bucks/oxon border. Especially high up on chilterns. Im on the northern downslope so unlikely to get as much.
  12. 100% agree. Icon, Arpege and Arome all had a very southwrn and westerly event. Only the Harmonie alongside the GFS had a NE spread. Nice to see.
  13. Mo radar having none of it. Stops around M4. Lots of chopping and changing. AROME and Harmonie has it slightly NE.. Bit Arpege and Arome sticks with MO
  14. Plenty will do well in SE - built so much uncertainty. Harmonie and Arome . Former slightly further N and E , latter has it stalling further south. Personally, i need it further north to get over the damn Chilterns
  15. Yes - im a few miles from Tring - i would say Chilterns could do quite well spreading SW into Cotswolds The Harmonie - goes further North and East - where as Aperge and ICON are slighty further south and west
  16. Looks it - but looks quite narrow - doesn't spread much further north than Chilterns
  17. Arpege - shows this could be the sweet spot as it drops south again - again, feel IMBY might be marginal - but higher areas of Chilterns and Cotswolds could get a fair few cms.
  18. Would take that! Still seems lots of flux from ICON, Arpege and Harmonie are all different. The first two showing the rain band not pushing as far inland. The latter shows it much further wast and then a stall and sink back south. Radar watching for sure.
  19. Looking at snow for this weekend. ICON hopefully giving a good indication. Some opportunities in SE today. Followed up more opportunities on Sunday from SW as it seems to reach northern home counties and then drop back down to South Coast. Further chances on Monday as well as a another band of rain moves south east. Some higher areas round my way on top of chilterns etc... could get some great accumulations. It's been a hard winter for us, missing out on marginal events previously.
  20. Note the Arpege has weekends snowfall at odds to Harmonie. Possible risk tomorrow IMBY...but less so on Sunday
  21. 2010? I lived in chesham at the time and it was c. -20 one night. Coldest place in the UK. Lying snow for weeks and over a foot in places.
  22. Harmonie looking good. Icon has it much further SW. What is best model for Dew Points? I cornered at 90m ASL ill be marginal again
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