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SP1986

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    North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SP1986

    32 minutes ago, RobR said:

    Nantwich was the hottest place in England today at 32c. Was surprised by that though we also had the record on New Year's Day when it was unseasonably warm.

    As I said earlier it wasn't all that uncomfortable outside and it was quite hazy so with clear skies tomorrow it's going to be fascinating to see what we get too.

    I'm up and out early, leaving work at 2pm to at least spend the afternoon on a record breaking day.

    I suspect Wirral or Chester might also could have been the Joint highest, but we will never likely know! 

    • Like 6

    North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So the projections for today is 29-31C across the south of the region, a little cooler in the north. This would be one of the warmest days of the year, normally. 

     

    Tomorrow will probably see 34 to 37C away from the coast, with 29 to 33C in coastal areas. 

    Tuesday as stands will be the hottest day if the cloud stays at bay. 36 to 40C inland and 32C to 35C on the coast! 

    Today is hazy and high cloud is dominant but it should clear this afternoon

    • Like 7

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Don’t know about everyone else, but I’m sick of seeing people on social media putting old bbc maps up saying the modern maps are deliberately darker to scare people etc and 1976 was great and we just got on with it yada yada.

    I just say well in the 1970s people worked with asbestos without any protection too. That has turned out to be a really great idea in the years following, so let’s bring that back too seeing as it was so great 40 years ago 🙄

    These are people who can be ignored because they are just looking for rises and attention because it is easy to do online. They don't know anything about what they're talking about.. They're just after 'likes'. 

    Foehn Effects 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    One to watch out for as well is the flow over the Welsh mountains, I'm guessing there will be a transitory build up of humidity on the western and southern slopes of Snowdonia, which could result in transitory Fohn for places like Mold, Caergwrle and Hawarden. To a lesser extent, it may also affect Cheshire and Wirral and down to Shrewsbury way... that could raise the temperature near 40C

    • Like 1

    North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

    Yep to think the hottest day I recorded locally in the ENTIRE long hot summer of 2018 was 31c - cooler than the 32c forecast for tomorrow! 😳🥵🥵

     

    The 34c local record from Aug 1990 will be smashed Mon/Tues. 

    I understand the adverse effect it could have on people, but what a time to be alive with a weather fanatics perspective.. I know the overall circumstances aren't great but it's going to be a hell of an experience, even if it's an uncomfortable experience. 

    In my life, I've been a few places in Europe, and UK, and the highest temperature I've knowingly experienced is 34C.. I have never experience more than that... even abroad.

    • Like 5

    North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Chris.R said:

    I still reckon 40.2°C at Hawarden on Monday thanks to a foehn effect. Said that the other day and sticking with it.

    Reckon Foehn effects in different areas will play a big role thanks to the very dry airmass.

    The only problem is, are Fohn's not a product of upslope moisture, and adiabatic downslope air descent.. I don't know where the moisture will come from over Snowdonia or any other hill range, in these conditions? That said this may be possible on Tuesday, as the humidity encroaches from the west. I recall, more often than not on winter nights, during an anomalously warm push, just before a frontal boundary, it gets pretty warm, due to this effect... so maybe the same process will happen, just much more extreme.

    • Like 5

    North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    I am speechless!

    WRF out to 1 pm Tuesday. 31° by 9 am, 40.1° add 1 pm. 13% humidity. T850s still 23°C. It’s going to be like being on another planet. 8° higher than anything I’ve ever felt before.

    The UKV have my location at 22C max on Tuesday, which is silly, not a very good model where coastal forecasts are concerned.. 22C would represent an inversion, which is highly unlikely in the set up. 

     

    On the other hand, 41C for anywhere in our region is probably a little high, I would expect 39C to be the top temperature somewhere around Crewe way, coming close in Manchester. 

     

    Merseyside I'm sure will beat its record by some margin, in somewhere like Newton-le-Willows. 

     

    As an aside, whilst the regional record is 34.9C, I think south Wirral beat that in 2003, although it's not an official recording, it would make sense given Hawarden just the other side of the border recorded 35.1C (35.2C, was in 1990)

    • Like 5

    North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I've created a quick map on Tuesdays potential maximum temperatures.. it's a very shoddy map, and doesn't take into account local topographies, other than the rise towards the Pennines, as I'm not wholely familiar with it. So don't take this map to point, as it is not exact.  Just some fun, and quite a conservative guess, based on where I think the models will be come Sunday night.

    temp predict map.jpg

    • Like 6

    North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SP1986

    There's still a chance that the model outputs are peaking with their heat, and we will see a reduction in temperatures over the next few days, at least that's my experience of events in the past. I think it's likely one or two locations in our region will come close to the current record of 38.7C, which is quite astonishing in itself, but I think more realistic situation is that we will see anything from 36 to 38 as absolute maximums across the region.. of course those numbers are very high still. 

    Where we will likely have incredible values is at night.. every possibility an urban centre like Manchester could have minimas around 24-25C, which again would beat the current UK record of 23.9C

     

    Astonishing period of weather coming up!

    • Like 7
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